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Forums - General Discussion - When will Dollar collapse as the world reserve currency?

by 2016 if not by then then at 2020. Then a mass succession.

The US government cant stop printing it and borrowing on it like morons. Tells other morons "raising the debt ceiling doesn't make more debt" -Prez Dingle Barry himself.



 

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sethnintendo said:
Kasz216 said:

 

Oops... Not sure how I got the F-22 and F-35 mixed up...  My drone statement was a little exaggerated but there probably won't be another program for a manned fighter such as the F-35 in the future.  The F-35 might be one of the last manned fighters for the USA. 

F-35 program as a whole has been a disaster.

"a new report says F-35 pilots can’t see that well out of the cockpit."

"Last winter, the Pentagon’s top buyer, Frank Kendall, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, told a defense conference that the George W. Bush administration had committed “acquisition malpractice.”

“I can spend quite a few minutes on the F-35, but I don’t want to,” Mr. Kendall said. “This will make a headline if I say it, but I’m going to say it anyway: Putting the F-35 into production years before the first test flight was acquisition malpractice. It should not have been done, OK? But we did it.”

 

"Gen. McPeak said that the real mistake occurred decades ago, as the Air Force basked in the success of Desert Storm.

The Air Force aimed to replace the F-16 Falcon — considered one of the most successful low-cost fighter productions ever — by designing a successor in its image: lightweight, technologically advanced, with flexibility to adjust to new threats.

But then-Defense Secretary Les Aspin overruled the Air Force, and decreed that the next generation of multi-role fighter jets would be “joint” — one plane for three services — to cut costs.

“We did what we were told,” Gen. McPeak said, adding that , 20 years later, the Aspin decision has had the opposite effect.

Trying to build three versions of the same aircraft has required adding layers of different features to meet the demands of each service. Development and production has been overseen by a succession of different program managers from the three services, each with their own tweaks for the final product."

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/6/prices-soar-enthusiasm-dives-for-f-35-lightning/?page=all

 

 

and the most ironic problem of the F-35 Lightning...

"The $237-million F-35B has been banned from traveling within 25 miles of a thunderstorm, amid fears that lightning could cause its fuel tank to explode.

The aircraft, which is ironically known as 'Lightning II,' is not permitted to fly in thunderstorms until an oxygen gauge in the fuel tank is redesigned."

http://rt.com/usa/f35-lightning-design-flaw-360/

 

Anyways, the feeding homeless was kind of a blank statement.  I pretty much meant you could do a lot more with that money than the money pit the F-35 has been.  Mainly I am for rebuilding USA infrastructure.  Do we need a strong military? Sure, but we need to stop trying to be the world police force.  I am more of an isolationist but if one of our allies is attacked then we should respond.  I view the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as a complete waste of time, money and life.  At most we should have just let the Northern Alliance take over Afghanistan with the help of CIA, special forces, and air power.  Putting bases and stationed troops on the ground in Afghanistan only pisses off the locals.  Who wants foreign troops setting up bases inside their country? 

So replace the homeless statement with rebuilding USA failing infrastructure.  We have numerous bridges that are becoming structurally unsound, highways that need to be expanded and built, and other forms of transportation to built.  What do we have now?  Well in shitty Texas we have highways being built with public money which are sold (usually to foreign private companies) to be toll roads.  I thought double taxation was illegal?


Eh, i've heard as much good as I have bad on the F-35.

He's just an oldschool guy, the oldschool guys like the F16, and thought the F22's sucked.

The F22 and Eurofighter also can't fly near thunderstorms, so that's really just a matter of people trumpeting up something as a flaw that's a standard issue with modern planes. (The F16 couldn't fly in thunderstorms either as far as i know.)

Even the cockpit thing...  The F35 is supposed to be run off the gages.  So you aren't actually supposed to be looking out of the cockpit, unless there is some huge emergency that has blown your gages.

 

I mean look at it this way.  Norway wants to get up to 52 of the things.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2013/1014/F-35-fighter-jets-Norway-doubles-its-order-for-F-35-fighters-from-6-to-12

Why would Norway buy 52 of them if they were junk?  They could get Eurofighters cheaper if they really wanted... or even F22's since Norway is replacing F16s.    

Hell Norway was part of the Eurofighter program.  Then Eurofighter dropped their plans to seek norway from buying the F35, basically because they knew the F35 would beat the Eurofighter.

 

 

And your fooling yourself if you think manned flight won't play a large part in conventional warfare in the future.  I mean, think of the imput lag in the first place.  Let alone if jamming occurs.   Most drones are practically just hobby planes with advanced backend technology to control them good.  Any decent air defense is going to rip them to shreds.

 

Most people have a false sense of what drones are.  

I mean hell... look at Norway above.  They plan to buy 52 F-35's... and they're Norway.  The US buying 214 doesn't really seem off when Norway is buying 52 does it?

I mean Norway doesn't really have any enemies, isn't likely to run many military oprations and only probably has 5 billion citizens or so.

 

 

As for failing US infrastructure...  again that's not really an issue of money.  We spend a LOT of new infrastructure.  Just the way we do it, means it's poorly allocated to things that aren't needed that fall ino disrepair.

 

Roads are sold to private companies because building is federal, mainting is almost exclusivly state money.

You tend to get hundreds of people voting on a trasnportation bill only like maybe 3 people are going to know if it's needed or not, and those people are just trying to get pork for their districts.  Or people like Harry Reed who build roads to inflate the value of their own real estate holdings.

This is also a problem for state level politics, but not quite as much.  Our crumbling infrastructure is more due to our divided district system and new projects just being a lot easier to maitenence.

 

There really aren't any problems in the US that boils down to "More money".  It's all more "Change the way money is spent to something smart."

 

You can add stuff with more money.  Like say, increase science funding.   Or even better... just not spend that money at all.   But extra money isn't really going to solve any problems, or even really  help much.   The issues are systematic not due to a lack of funding.





haxxiy said:
snyps said:
to answer the op. The US Dollar will collapse as the world reserve currency when other currencies can buy petroleum.


They already can, on both Lybia and Iraq.

Oh wait.

But civil war and an illegal military invasion can happen to anyone, right?


exactly.



S.T.A.G.E. said:
hysterianut said:
Troll_Whisperer said:
What currency can replace it though?


dollar backed by gold


The bankers fucked over Americans. Thanks to frational reserve banking we'd have to start at square one. Thats almost a centuries worth of inflation. Theres nothing worse than currency backed based on faith.

Fiat currency is actually the most stable in the long run. Hyperinflation is a nice bogyeman to trot around, but it only happens in limited circumstances (namely when a country's debt is denominated in another currency or in gold, so if they can't pay their debts, printing money to do so just devalues it with insane speed)



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Also, i feel like most people overestimate the value of being a reserve currency.

Going off the gold standard didn't solve the Triffin dilemma... it just made it easier to ignore.

Not being the reserve currency might actually be something that would solve a lot of the US's current fiscal problems.

It'd lower the US' trade deficit and force real cuts in government borrowing.



Kasz216 said

I mean hell... look at Norway above.  They plan to buy 52 F-35's... and they're Norway.  The US buying 214 doesn't really seem off when Norway is buying 52 does it?

I mean Norway doesn't really have any enemies, isn't likely to run many military oprations and only probably has 5 billion citizens or so.


Most news I've read has the U.S. order slightly higher.. at 2,443 planes :P.



It's all about the game.

LiquorandGunFun said:
by 2016 if not by then then at 2020. Then a mass succession.

The US government cant stop printing it and borrowing on it like morons. Tells other morons "raising the debt ceiling doesn't make more debt" -Prez Dingle Barry himself.

Let's stop and have a brief lesson about the Liquidity Trap. The macroeconomy under the regime of the Central Banks functions under their ability to set interest rates. When you want to have economic growth, the best way is with low interest rates, which will create less incentive to save your money and more incentive to spend it. At the same time, it makes borrowing easier for all market players. The Liquitidy Trap occurs when you've punched interest rates as low as they can go but external market conditions (consumer and business confidence and factors that influence them) still have not rebounded. At this point, the only way to effect a meaningful change and stimulate spending is to create inflation, and not only that, but to create expectation of inflation (which helps to weaken the exchange rate). As such, in a Liquitidy Trap, currency collapse is patently impossible (unless the country's debt is denominated in a currency other than their own, or in gold, a la Weimar Germany, which messes with the math of it all)

In the case of the United States, QE can go on infinitely until significant inflation actually kicks in, as could endless government spending.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

lilwingman said:
Kasz216 said

I mean hell... look at Norway above.  They plan to buy 52 F-35's... and they're Norway.  The US buying 214 doesn't really seem off when Norway is buying 52 does it?

I mean Norway doesn't really have any enemies, isn't likely to run many military oprations and only probably has 5 billion citizens or so.


Most news I've read has the U.S. order slightly higher.. at 2,443 planes :P.


whoops.   Still when you consider just how many pointless army bases the US has all over the world, that's probably only like 3 planes per base.  (not counting all the aircraft carriers.)



While clowns act at stage in Congress...

Q. How worried are you that one morning the bond market has moved against the United States?

A. It’s virtually assured, the question is when and how. I don't know if it will be two years of five years but it will happen. It is a matter of time, the United States can’t borrow indefinitely. Over hundred years bankruptcies of country after country who thought they could get away with it because they had the reserve currency and the military power of the world. We are going to have fiscal discipline. It’s imposed upon us or we do the right thing and do it to ourselves the right way.... America knows the way, it doesn't have the will.

More here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-16/jamie-dimon-us-debt-endgame

 

Speaking about the ways, ZH people from link above (and majority of 'theorists' on the topic in fact) never really come up with anything new aside from two basic scenarios and their multiple variations -- hyperinflation and devaluation. Both are bad, the former is better than the other though.