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How Many 3DS's Will Be Sold In Japan of Pokemon XY Launch? (2 Days Left to Predict)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How Many 3DS's Will Be Sold In Japan of Pokemon XY Launch? (2 Days Left to Predict)

forethought14 said:
470K. It'll sell a good amount, but nothing amazing.


Ummmmm.... Isnt 470k F***ing Amazing? Actually 350k+ would be amazing considering all 3ds highest weeks in japan right?



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tbone51 said:
forethought14 said:
470K. It'll sell a good amount, but nothing amazing.


Ummmmm.... Isnt 470k F***ing Amazing? Actually 350k+ would be amazing considering all 3ds highest weeks in japan right?

Nope! It's just good/great for a launch of a set of games. 650K+ would be amazing, but it won't reach that high. ;)



forethought14 said:
tbone51 said:
forethought14 said:
470K. It'll sell a good amount, but nothing amazing.


Ummmmm.... Isnt 470k F***ing Amazing? Actually 350k+ would be amazing considering all 3ds highest weeks in japan right?

Nope! It's just good/great for a launch of a set of games. 650K+ would be amazing, but it won't reach that high. ;)


I think your going overboard lol! 422k was wat it did in the best week of the year in sales (christmas) last year. 

497k is its best week in 2011 again with christmas week and had MK7+SM3DL+MH3G just released a week or 2 before!

Launch week was 330k! With MH4 it was 274k. Yea over 400k would be amazing! It doing 40-55k per week  on average(before mh4 came)!

 



tbone51 said:

I think your going overboard lol! 422k was wat it did in the best week of the year in sales (christmas) last year. 

497k is its best week in 2011 again with christmas week and had MK7+SM3DL+MH3G just released a week or 2 before!

Launch week was 330k! With MH4 it was 274k. Yea over 400k would be amazing! It doing 40-55k per week  on average(before mh4 came)!

 

I'm not going overboard because we're talking about Pokemon here. Pokemon will outsell all of those you've listed, and will cause a larger impact in hardware sales than those games ever could. I expect it to do over 400K, and I'm aiming at the high 400K's. You're the one who's going overboard by placing the hardware impact of those three games you listed in the same level as the hardware impact that Pokemon usually has. If it does less than 400K, then we go into OK territory. If it does less than 300K, then it's bad. 



forethought14 said:
tbone51 said:

I think your going overboard lol! 422k was wat it did in the best week of the year in sales (christmas) last year. 

497k is its best week in 2011 again with christmas week and had MK7+SM3DL+MH3G just released a week or 2 before!

Launch week was 330k! With MH4 it was 274k. Yea over 400k would be amazing! It doing 40-55k per week  on average(before mh4 came)!

 

I'm not going overboard because we're talking about Pokemon here. Pokemon will outsell all of those you've listed, and will cause a larger impact in hardware sales than those games ever could. I expect it to do over 400K, and I'm aiming at the high 400K's. You're the one who's going overboard by placing the hardware impact of those three games you listed in the same level as the hardware impact that Pokemon usually has. If it does less than 400K, then we go into OK territory. If it does less than 300K, then it's bad. 

I didn't want to do this but here...  Pokemon Diamond/Pearl boosted up DS sales with 276,839  week of release! MH4 cme out and 3ds had 270k. 

Under 250k= Bad

250-300k=So So

300k-350k=Good

350k-400k=Great

400k+= Amazing!

You cant say 300k is bad wen DS sold less than that with pokemon release



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I underestimated hardware sales as MH4 launched ... Pokemon is bigger than MH and there was already some MH audience on 3DS because of 3G.
My prediction is 430k!



tbone51 said:

I didn't want to do this but here...  Pokemon Diamond/Pearl boosted up DS sales with 276,839  week of release! MH4 cme out and 3ds had 270k. 

Under 250k= Bad

250-300k=So So

300k-350k=Good

350k-400k=Great

400k+= Amazing!

You cant say 300k is bad wen DS sold less than that with pokemon release

Didn't want to do it, why?

Your scales' incriments are WAY too thin for this situation. 50K separates each rating? I'm sorry to disagree, because each situation is different. X/Y will sell more than D/P, probably by over a million, likely including a lot more hardware sales, and there are a ton of hardware bundles going around. If MH4 allows for a surprising 270K, then there's no reason why Pokemon should have problems passing that. With all of this "OMG bundles are selling out", why shouldn't less than 300K be bad? There's literally high expectations for these titles in terms of sales after all of this talk of "records". If they don't meet their expectations (again, 400K I'm expecting due to all of these "records") then it's a shame. 

The real issue here, is your definition of "amazing". Amazing shouldn't be that close to "great". 



a GAzillion and a half



tbone51 said:
forethought14 said:
tbone51 said:

I think your going overboard lol! 422k was wat it did in the best week of the year in sales (christmas) last year. 

497k is its best week in 2011 again with christmas week and had MK7+SM3DL+MH3G just released a week or 2 before!

Launch week was 330k! With MH4 it was 274k. Yea over 400k would be amazing! It doing 40-55k per week  on average(before mh4 came)!

 

I'm not going overboard because we're talking about Pokemon here. Pokemon will outsell all of those you've listed, and will cause a larger impact in hardware sales than those games ever could. I expect it to do over 400K, and I'm aiming at the high 400K's. You're the one who's going overboard by placing the hardware impact of those three games you listed in the same level as the hardware impact that Pokemon usually has. If it does less than 400K, then we go into OK territory. If it does less than 300K, then it's bad. 

I didn't want to do this but here...  Pokemon Diamond/Pearl boosted up DS sales with 276,839  week of release! MH4 cme out and 3ds had 270k. 

Under 250k= Bad

250-300k=So So

300k-350k=Good

350k-400k=Great

400k+= Amazing!

You cant say 300k is bad wen DS sold less than that with pokemon release


While yours are more reasonable than his, I must say that also your classification is rather on the high end. Over 200k would be really good even over 150k would be good.

People have to consider that 3DS had a great week in the MH4 week and since than sold over 100k units weekly, new big releases like Pokemon will help in pushing more systems but after several weeks of great sales the jump won´t be as high spiked in my opinion.

Also very important to  point out is that 3DS hardware has been supply constrained for weeks now so I reallyy doubt that they could suddenly ship 400k-600k units this week when they didn´t manage to ship 200k units the past few weeks.

 

My guess would be 290k and I think that is a very optimistic one from my part.