August 13, 2011.

PS4 will win over the XB1 based on the price point alone. As far as the PS3, it will do OK worldwide due to the emerging countries, but not as good as the PS4. People are more than ready for the next gen and the price point for the PS4 is going to make it sell really well.

I'm going with ps4.
And if the ps3 get's a pricecut i'll see it selling well too.
I'm not so sure about wiiU outselling the ps4 or even the ps3 next year.

So, in their second years, XBox 360 and PS3 sold about 7 and 8 million respectively. 360 also sold bout 8 million in its third year, so don't bring up shortages. The split between the PS4/XBox One is going to be in the PS4's favor, but I think the overall sales are going to be less. I think that, because of the rise of a preorder culture, sales will be more frontloaded this generation. So, I think we'll see something like 8.5- 9million for PS4 2014, and 5.5-6 million for the One.

The PS3 is already slowing down, and I can see it selling 7 million in a best case scenario. The generation has been long already. The PS3 did not dominate its generation like the PS2 did. After the XBox 360 came out, the PS2 was the only last gen still selling. The PS3 will split marketshare with the 360 and the Wii.

The WIi U is a wildcard. I think Nintendo is making a lot of great moves lately, and it's just a question of when the marketing catches up with the product. The social features of the Wii U are very clever, and their pricing options make sense for the kind of product they're selling. Nintendo really needs to start a media blitz like... now... that peaks in mid october, right as XBox One and PS4 are really getting their mass marketing going. With the momentum they CAN get from their holiday lineup, and Smash and Mario Kart next year, the Wii U could easily be the best selling console of 2014. It can also get outsold by the PS3. Both are possibilities, and it all depends on the marketing.