2D Mario has sold the system, how many Wii Us would be sold if NSMBU wasnt on it? Also its not one single game that sells a console, in the next three months Wii U has 8 exclusives that belong to multimillion selling franchises. Wind Waker HD, Sonic Lost World, Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, Wii Sports Club, Mario & Sonic Olympics, DKC Tropical Freeze, Mario 3D World. Alone none of those games will do much but combined in a short amount of time in addition to price cut, new bundles, marketing and holidays should give Wii U decent sales for the next few months.

I'll disagree on that. 3d mario and donkey kong always make some noise. combined the impact gets much bigger. and next year there are plenty of exclusives confirmed: bayo 2, yoshi, smt x fire emblem, X, mario kart8, smash + unannounced.

It's just a forecast it doesn't mean that is what will happen. It's quite possible that they will get it wrong. Sometimes companies even purposefully lowball their public predictions so that the actual numbers look better.

thats true, still hard to believe Wii U would only get 1-1.5m sold in the next 6 months

If they only ship 5M, then probably it won't surpass Wii U. But I think Wii U won't ship much more than 2.5M until march, so if Sony ships 7M, it will surpass it easily. I predict that Wii U demand will be lower than last hollydays, specially because of the competition.

I don't know what you were expecting, but I'm sure many people would have found it hard to believe that the Wii U would sell less than 3.5M in the time it has before it was released. The Wii U has clearly shown its ability to make much less than expectations. 

wii u sales from since january have no value to predict future sales.

That wasn't the point, I was just saying that the numbers could disappoint again. Obviously sales will go up with holidays and new games, but it could still do worse than some here are expecting.

You must understand.  Ive purchased a console for one game. Sometimes 2 games. Had Dragon's Dogma not come along the PS3 may have never been worth the purchase as I'm still waiting on that game I bought it for. So I can tell you that to this enthusiast 1 game is enough. The promise of one game is enough. Though this new wound inflicted with TLG has me rethinking that stance. 

I wasn't aware of the full roster it appears but I cant imagine most of those drastically changing much of anything. Sonic long ago lost it's luster and Im not sure that isn't the case with all of them sans maybe DK. Galaxy 2 made it seem like the 3D Mario series is in a decline sales wise. I can't see the Wii series games being nearly as successful. Especially how Wii series fans were left without software so swiftly other than Tamagotchi and AC we havent seen anywhere near the same effect from expanded audience software which I would argue those 2 series arent mass market expanded audience whatever you would call them as their fan base of millions had been around prior and just gained popularity in portable format like MH. This line up might be able to lift holiday season sales to something less lackluster.  I would honestly think we may be comparing it to the Vita's holiday season last year as the closest system of reference.  . 

That is true but from the beginning of January to the end of August Wii U sold 1.2m, with Lego City & Pikmin as the biggest releases. Sept-end of March has a price cut, Wind Waker HD, Wii Party U, Sonic Lost World, Wii Fit U, Wii Sports Club, Mario & Sonic Olympics, DKC Tropical Freeze, Mario 3D World, holidays and possibly Mario Kart. I just dont see how anyone could expect less than 1.5m in the next 7 months. It seems like people who are expecting PS4 to outsell by the end of this fiscal year arent thinking it through.