That's a tough call. We have 5m forecast ending March for PS4 so I would say sometime after. Yes I'm saying the WiiU will have 5m+ shipments ending March. Nintendo games like 3D World and Donkey Kong are coming for WiiU so it should pull it's own leg and stay above PS4 during the holidays. Of course there is also Wind Waker soon. Looking ahead, there's also Mario Kart that may release in Q12014.

Maybe in May.

Those projections were probably in place before the reception of the Ps4 was fully realised. If need be they will ship more than 5 mil by march. Nintendo expected 5.5 and that was lower than Wii if I remember correctly. I think they will reach their forcast plus a couple hundred thousand. But yeah, I still said end of next fiscal year

Around June 2014 for PS4, I'd say.

They just announced it today.   And the fiscal quarter ends in less than 2 weeks meaning it's very likely an up to date shipment projection.

These have been in planning for months now. You think they can just be like, "Well our pre-orders are up let's just produce more" because they can't. They can push out more than expected if need be but just look at Nintendo at the begining of the Wii's life and how they struggled.

Actually, that's what I mean.  The 5 million figure is pretty locked in at the moment and any changes to that would be minor.

And worse would be overproducing.  If they assume the huge pre-order figures translates into sustained high sell through and it doesn't, that's a lot of unsold inventory.

Oh, I think I cover that in the rest of the post

It actually took a while for the Wii's production capacity to match the sell through demand.    You can't just tell Foxconn to ramp up production in a day.  

Don't forget how many vendors are associated with building a modenr video game console.   Ramping up manufacturing production means having hundreds of component vendors all upping their own productions to match.  If 1 componenet vendor is already at maximum production output and an alternative vendor cannot be used or doesn't exist...you're stuck at the original level.

Man I've seen a few threads like this xD PS4 late 2014(October-December) Xbone 2015(April-June).

But who really knows? Everyone thought the WiiU would fly off the shelves but look how that worked out.

People do realize that it would be impossible for the PS4 or X-Box One to pass the Wii U within the first month or so of release, correct? Even if the demand for consoles was literally infinite, there won't be 3.5 million PS4s or X-Box Ones produced in that time span. It'll take at least into 2014 for supply to reach that high.

With that said, I'd bet on the PS4 passing in late winter/early Spring, and the X-Box One in the fall. If specific dates are required:

PS4: March 30

X-Box One: October 1