Without hardware-bundling (Wii Sports to the Wii, Wii Sports Resort to Motion Plus) "at least more than 10 millions each" seem to me like big claims and "doing extremely well".

That is very true, but it is a vicious circle, isn´t? The devs will not make games for it because it doesn´t have a good install base and the gamers are not buying it because it has the same kind of games the PS3 and the X360 had for 8 years already, and also because the devs do not make games for it.

I saw the WiiU reveal last night, the 2011 event. They anounced ALIENS COLONIAL MARINES and METRO LAST LIGHT for the system, EA said Battefield would be amazing on the WiiU, all these are long gone now. I remember thinking about how amazing Aliens C.M. would be on the WiiU, they cancelled the game and the versions we did get were really bad.

Maybe you are right and I am a little too pessimistc in this case, but, right now, at the first WiiU aniversary, I see no excuse for me to get one, and I am a pretty compulsive buyer, I bought a 3DS, a Vita and a PSP, all in the same year, I barelly touch any of those. 

I guess Mario Kart can sell a million or two WiiU and Zelda (a proper one) can sell another couple.

As I see it, Nintendo have two options: They should market the system to children now, like it is a non violent, collorful and fun introdutory console for young audiences, or, go to the opposite extreme and make nothing but Horror, crazy debauchery games, with gore, disturbing images and new entries in franchises like THE GRUDGE, ETERNAL DARKNESS, FATAL FRAME and some mature RPGs like a Earthbound for adults.

Both options, as I see it, will grant some moderate success, like 20-30mil, but nothing more than that. The problem is that the WIIU has not a really compelling gimmick, the gamepad is ok but it is NOT motion controls level of euphoria in the casual gamer´s eyes.

I think that, right now, Nintendo is going to the kiddy route, let´s see what happens.

For games from ips that sold so well in the past it's reasonable to expect at least that much without very compelling arguments to prove the opposite. Is it a big claim to expect GTA to sell at least that much? Why would it be for an ip which has always been bigger?

@ bold, what?  It was designed for the N64.  The game released first on the N64; before re-releasing on the Gamecube.  It was designed for home consoles; but it found a home on handhelds.  And again, I still don't see how it adds any relevance to your argument.  Animal Crossing is succeeding on the 3DS at the moment, absolutely - but the 3DS isn't the Wii-U, not by a long stretch.

@ underlined, see the bit in italics.  The signs we're talking about are that similar IP's that were brand new and designed around the new hardware of the DS failed to gain any traction when getting new iterations on new hardware.  It's not conclusive evidence by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a sign, that you seem to be choosing to ignore (you kind of contradict yourself in that sentence "it doesn't matter if BT or ND didn't sell well"; except it does matter if we're trying to analyse a similar phenomenom happening from Wii -> Wii-U).  

We make assumptions based on the evidence we have because that's all we have to go off for the time being.  You seem to add a lot more weight to Animal Crossing doing well on 3DS than Brain Training/Nintendogs doing poorly, and that's fine.  Myself, and plenty of other people in this thread, interpret the evidence the other way around.  Only time will tell what really happens, but I really can't believe that you "don't see the signs" when they've been listed by multiple people already in this thread.  They're definitely there; but whether or not they turn out to be actual signs or merely anomalies remains to be seen.

I know that AC was first released on N64 still it doesn't change the fact that its concept is most suited to handhelds. I'm not putting more weight to AC than BT you don't understand what I'm saying: the fact that there is 1 casual ip whatever it is that still sell really well despite smartphones proves that casual games can still be big sellers and systrem sellers so it's totally possible that WF and WS could still be these kind of games and as a result asserting that it's impossible is nothing else that a baseless assumption. And without proofs there is no reason to believe that those games are not system sellers any more just like AC still is.

I don't believe in "kiddy games", I mean, Mario Galaxy is colorful, but definitely a hardcore game. Nintendo being a game maker for kids is just a urban legend. Ninty know how to talk with youngsters, but have tons of hardcore games as well. Even Wii had.

But AC: New Leaf seems to appeal not only to casual gamers but to many core gamers as well, just look in a thread like this:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167698&page=1

Yes, there are reasons to doubt the success of a new Wii Sports or Wii Fit, IF they bring nothing new to the table besides prettier graphic. Many reasons are pointed out in this thread, but you ignore them or shoot them down as irrelevant.

There is no proof that these games will be successful and there is no proof that these games will be unsuccessful. If only proofs are valid as arguments, the whole thread is pointless, since nobody of us knows the future.

"There is no proof that these games will be successful and there is no proof that these games will be unsuccessful. If only proofs are valid as arguments, the whole thread is pointless, since nobody of us knows the future."

But that's my point so if you agree with that at least this thread is not pointless. My point is to say that there is no reason to say that these games won't be huge sellers like the previous ones and yet many pretend they know the future and they know that they won't be. So we can at least agree on the fact that it's impossible to make such a claim.

It's impossible to know for sure how well they will sell and yet that's a point of huge importance obviously for the future of the next generation of consoles.

Fair enough, you live in Brazil, right?  I guess to us brazilians it is even harder, since we have to drop a lot of money to enter in a console anyways.

You went with the WiiU, right?

I remember Regie saying Wii fit was the biggest system seller in the history of gaming in a gametrailers interview a few months ago.