Quantcast
Give me compelling reasons/proofs why Wii sports or Wii Fit won't be huge system sellers again for WiiU

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Give me compelling reasons/proofs why Wii sports or Wii Fit won't be huge system sellers again for WiiU

Kresnik said:
gum said:

AC is still selling amazing well which proves that the casual are still interested in this ip not only the Nintendo fans. BT, Nintendogs have a lot of ripp-offs on smartphones while the only games that can compete against WS are on other expensive consoles and those games didn't have the same kind of success like MK clones never overshadowed the original. Speaking of WF, it really has no competition, Zumba being the closest one.

So the situation seems very different to BT and ND and at least there is no proofs compelling enough to claim that these particular ips will have the same fate as BT and ND and not continue to sell really well like other casual ips like AC, TC or even MK.


I still don't think this Animal Crossing comparison holds any merit.

Before the Wii explosion, Animal Crossing was selling 3.15m on Gamecube (plus whatever it sold on N64, which we haven't tracked).

It then went on to sell ~ 4.5m on Wii, despite the massive disparity in install-bases between GC & Wii.  While I have no doubt it's the casual friendly game you're making it out to be, it really didn't do much to attract a lot of new fans in.

What happened with Animal Crossing was a portable explosion.  It found its home on handhelds.  It felt like a game that was designed for handhelds - ideal to play in short bursts where you can pick some fruit for 20 minutes here or dig up some weeds for 10 minutes there.  And that's carrying on with the 3DS.

 

So yeah.  I'm still not quite sure why you keep bringing up this Animal Crossing comparison.  Wii Sports / Wii Fit, in my mind, bear a lot more similarities to Nintendogs/Brain Training in that they were explosive new IP's which came out of nowhere and attracted a whole new crowd of people to gaming; were imitated by everyone under the sun and (potentialy) became far less successful when they returned on new hardware.

 

Do you have any thoughts on why these casual gamers would upgrade from the Wii/Kinect that they're already playing on to a new console?

 

Maybe you're correct.  Maybe the casual gamers will flock back to Wii-U once Wii Fit and the (potential) Wii Sports release (remember, they haven't announced anything about that yet).  All the signs we're seeing at the moment though, make it seem highly unlikely.


For AC I'm speaking about handheld games obviously because this game is designed for this kind of hardware and I doubt anyone question the fact it is a very casual oriented game. Then the success of the 3DS version as well as the success of TC proves that despite smartphones casual can still care about this kind of games and buy consoles to play them. It doesn't matter that BT or ND didn't sell well: the fact that casual games like that manage to do well prove my point that you can't conclude that casual gamers don't care any more about gaming systems and proves that they are ok to buy new iterrations of games they liked in the past.

I'm not the one who make big claims, remind you, quite the oppoiste in fact: I'm not saying I'm 100% sure that WS and WF will do extremely well but I question the fact that many seem to be totally sure that WS and WF won't be big sellers. I'm the one who say that maybe they will be right, perhaps, but to be that sure they have to give very compelling arguments and I just don't see any. And if there are no big arguments then the most reasonable thing to believe is that these new games will sell almost as much as the previous ones like we do with every other ip. And when you say "All the signs we're seeing at the moment though, make it seem highly unlikely." I'm sorry but I still don't see the signs you are talking about. Just assumptions that casual gamers won't buy new iterrations of games they liked despite the fact that the same kind of people do that very often to play the new mario, mario kart, AC... games.



Around the Network
gum said:

I'm not the one who make big claims, remind you, quite the oppoiste in fact: I'm not saying I'm 100% sure that WS and WF will do extremely well but I question the fact that many seem to be totally sure that WS and WF won't be big sellers.

Without hardware-bundling (Wii Sports to the Wii, Wii Sports Resort to Motion Plus) "at least more than 10 millions each" seem to me like big claims and "doing extremely well".



EricFabian said:
No, I don't think Wii U will share the same sucess of Wii. Maybe 50M LT. But is not because it is "underpowered", only Nintendo knows the real power of U, of course if we compare it to PS4/X180, underpower. The only problem with Wii U is lack of big games.


That is very true, but it is a vicious circle, isn´t? The devs will not make games for it because it doesn´t have a good install base and the gamers are not buying it because it has the same kind of games the PS3 and the X360 had for 8 years already, and also because the devs do not make games for it.

I saw the WiiU reveal last night, the 2011 event. They anounced ALIENS COLONIAL MARINES and METRO LAST LIGHT for the system, EA said Battefield would be amazing on the WiiU, all these are long gone now. I remember thinking about how amazing Aliens C.M. would be on the WiiU, they cancelled the game and the versions we did get were really bad.

Maybe you are right and I am a little too pessimistc in this case, but, right now, at the first WiiU aniversary, I see no excuse for me to get one, and I am a pretty compulsive buyer, I bought a 3DS, a Vita and a PSP, all in the same year, I barelly touch any of those. 

I guess Mario Kart can sell a million or two WiiU and Zelda (a proper one) can sell another couple.

As I see it, Nintendo have two options: They should market the system to children now, like it is a non violent, collorful and fun introdutory console for young audiences, or, go to the opposite extreme and make nothing but Horror, crazy debauchery games, with gore, disturbing images and new entries in franchises like THE GRUDGE, ETERNAL DARKNESS, FATAL FRAME and some mature RPGs like a Earthbound for adults.

Both options, as I see it, will grant some moderate success, like 20-30mil, but nothing more than that. The problem is that the WIIU has not a really compelling gimmick, the gamepad is ok but it is NOT motion controls level of euphoria in the casual gamer´s eyes.

I think that, right now, Nintendo is going to the kiddy route, let´s see what happens.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

Conina said:
gum said:

I'm not the one who make big claims, remind you, quite the oppoiste in fact: I'm not saying I'm 100% sure that WS and WF will do extremely well but I question the fact that many seem to be totally sure that WS and WF won't be big sellers.

Without hardware-bundling (Wii Sports to the Wii, Wii Sports Resort to Motion Plus) "at least more than 10 millions each" seem to me like big claims and "doing extremely well".


For games from ips that sold so well in the past it's reasonable to expect at least that much without very compelling arguments to prove the opposite. Is it a big claim to expect GTA to sell at least that much? Why would it be for an ip which has always been bigger?



gum said:

For AC I'm speaking about handheld games obviously because this game is designed for this kind of hardware and I doubt anyone question the fact it is a very casual oriented game. Then the success of the 3DS version as well as the success of TC proves that despite smartphones casual can still care about this kind of games and buy consoles to play them. It doesn't matter that BT or ND didn't sell well: the fact that casual games like that manage to do well prove my point that you can't conclude that casual gamers don't care any more about gaming systems and proves that they are ok to buy new iterrations of games they liked in the past.

I'm not the one who make big claims, remind you, quite the oppoiste in fact: I question the fact that many seem to be totally sure that WS and WF won't be big sellers. I'm the one who say that maybe they will be right, perhaps, but to be that sure they have to give very compelling arguments and I just don't see any. And when you say "All the signs we're seeing at the moment though, make it seem highly unlikely." I'm sorry but I still don't see the signs you are talking about. Just assumptions that casual gamers won't by new iterrations of games they liked despite the fact that the same kind of people do that very often to play the new mario, mario kart, AC... games.


@ bold, what?  It was designed for the N64.  The game released first on the N64; before re-releasing on the Gamecube.  It was designed for home consoles; but it found a home on handhelds.  And again, I still don't see how it adds any relevance to your argument.  Animal Crossing is succeeding on the 3DS at the moment, absolutely - but the 3DS isn't the Wii-U, not by a long stretch.

 

@ underlined, see the bit in italics.  The signs we're talking about are that similar IP's that were brand new and designed around the new hardware of the DS failed to gain any traction when getting new iterations on new hardware.  It's not conclusive evidence by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a sign, that you seem to be choosing to ignore (you kind of contradict yourself in that sentence "it doesn't matter if BT or ND didn't sell well"; except it does matter if we're trying to analyse a similar phenomenom happening from Wii -> Wii-U).  

 

We make assumptions based on the evidence we have because that's all we have to go off for the time being.  You seem to add a lot more weight to Animal Crossing doing well on 3DS than Brain Training/Nintendogs doing poorly, and that's fine.  Myself, and plenty of other people in this thread, interpret the evidence the other way around.  Only time will tell what really happens, but I really can't believe that you "don't see the signs" when they've been listed by multiple people already in this thread.  They're definitely there; but whether or not they turn out to be actual signs or merely anomalies remains to be seen.



Around the Network
Kresnik said:


I know that AC was first released on N64 still it doesn't change the fact that its concept is most suited to handhelds. I'm not putting more weight to AC than BT you don't understand what I'm saying: the fact that there is 1 casual ip whatever it is that still sell really well despite smartphones proves that casual games can still be big sellers and systrem sellers so it's totally possible that WF and WS could still be these kind of games and as a result asserting that it's impossible is nothing else that a baseless assumption. And without proofs there is no reason to believe that those games are not system sellers any more just like AC still is.



WagnerPaiva said:
That is very true, but it is a vicious circle, isn´t? The devs will not make games for it because it doesn´t have a good install base and the gamers are not buying it because it has the same kind of games the PS3 and the X360 had for 8 years already, and also because the devs do not make games for it.

I saw the WiiU reveal last night, the 2011 event. They anounced ALIENS COLONIAL MARINES and METRO LAST LIGHT for the system, EA said Battefield would be amazing on the WiiU, all these are long gone now. I remember thinking about how amazing Aliens C.M. would be on the WiiU, they cancelled the game and the versions we did get were really bad.

Maybe you are right and I am a little too pessimistc in this case, but, right now, at the first WiiU aniversary, I see no excuse for me to get one, and I am a pretty compulsive buyer, I bought a 3DS, a Vita and a PSP, all in the same year, I barelly touch any of those. 

I guess Mario Kart can sell a million or two WiiU and Zelda (a proper one) can sell another couple.

As I see it, Nintendo have two options: They should market the system to children now, like it is a non violent, collorful and fun introdutory console for young audiences, or, go to the opposite extreme and make nothing but Horror, crazy debauchery games, with gore, disturbing images and new entries in franchises like THE GRUDGE, ETERNAL DARKNESS, FATAL FRAME and some mature RPGs like a Earthbound for adults.

Both options, as I see it, will grant some moderate success, like 20-30mil, but nothing more than that. The problem is that the WIIU has not a really compelling gimmick, the gamepad is ok but it is NOT motion controls level of euphoria in the casual gamer´s eyes.

I think that, right now, Nintendo is going to the kiddy route, let´s see what happens.

I don't believe in "kiddy games", I mean, Mario Galaxy is colorful, but definitely a hardcore game. Nintendo being a game maker for kids is just a urban legend. Ninty know how to talk with youngsters, but have tons of hardcore games as well. Even Wii had.



Click HERE and be happy 

gum said:
Kresnik said:


I know that AC was first released on N64 still it doesn't change the fact that its concept is most suited to handhelds. I'm not putting more weight to AC than BT you don't understand what I'm saying: the fact that there is 1 casual ip whatever it is that still sell really well despite smartphones proves that casual games can still be big sellers and systrem sellers so it's totally possible that WF and WS could still be these kind of games and as a result asserting that it's impossible is nothing else that a baseless assumption. And without proofs there is no reason to believe that those games are not system sellers any more just like AC still is.

But AC: New Leaf seems to appeal not only to casual gamers but to many core gamers as well, just look in a thread like this:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=167698&page=1

gum said:

 And without proofs there is no reason to believe that those games are not system sellers any more just like AC still is.

Yes, there are reasons to doubt the success of a new Wii Sports or Wii Fit, IF they bring nothing new to the table besides prettier graphic. Many reasons are pointed out in this thread, but you ignore them or shoot them down as irrelevant.

There is no proof that these games will be successful and there is no proof that these games will be unsuccessful. If only proofs are valid as arguments, the whole thread is pointless, since nobody of us knows the future.



"There is no proof that these games will be successful and there is no proof that these games will be unsuccessful. If only proofs are valid as arguments, the whole thread is pointless, since nobody of us knows the future."

 

But that's my point so if you agree with that at least this thread is not pointless. My point is to say that there is no reason to say that these games won't be huge sellers like the previous ones and yet many pretend they know the future and they know that they won't be. So we can at least agree on the fact that it's impossible to make such a claim.

It's impossible to know for sure how well they will sell and yet that's a point of huge importance obviously for the future of the next generation of consoles.



EricFabian said:
I don't believe in "kiddy games", I mean, Mario Galaxy is colorful, but definitely a hardcore game. Nintendo being a game maker for kids is just a urban legend. Ninty know how to talk with youngsters, but have tons of hardcore games as well. Even Wii had.


Fair enough, you live in Brazil, right?  I guess to us brazilians it is even harder, since we have to drop a lot of money to enter in a console anyways.

You went with the WiiU, right?



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.