And I'll name them. At least 10 of them should be pointing out the obvious.
People are exaggerating how big Brawl is going to be. Sales estimates well above 15 million, talk of how its "Nintendo's biggest franchise" or will be the "defining game on Wii." Biggest case in point: on theSimExchange, Brawl is valued above 17M in sales. At its highest, it topped 20M.
Let me first name 12 sure bets. I guarentee that each and every one of these games will sell more than Brawl. (Sales numbers from earlier today.)
1. Wii Sports 18.52M
2. Nintendogs 17.35M
3. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 13.65M
4. New Super Mario Bros. 13.16M
Super Smash Bros 64 + Melee 12.13M
5. Brain Training 11.69M
6. More Brain Training 9.85M
7. Wii Play 9.70M
8. Mario Kart DS 9.45M
9. Animal Crossing: Wild World 8.90M
Super Smash Bros Melee 6.58M
Super Smash Bros 64 5.55M
10. Super Mario Galaxy 5.54M
11. Wii Fit 1.28M
12. Mario Kart Wii
And, additional games of which at least 3 will beat Brawl...
Animal Crossing Wii
Grand Theft Auto IV 360
Subsequent GTA games for any home system
Halo 3 7.13M
Gran Turismo 5
Subsequent Brain Training games for DS or Wii
Subsequent Nintendogs games for DS or Wii
Wii Music or other as-of-yet-unknown Wii brand games
Other unknown game(s)
Brawl will cruise past the sales of the previous versions. It will make a run at 10 million sales. But it will not be the biggest game this generation. It will not sell 12, 15 or 20 million.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.