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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox trend prediction

With the following graph we can see the sales of the first years of both the xbox and the xbox360.

Ask yourself this question where do you expect the line of the xbox one end up.

Will it sell faster then the 360 or will the +-$100 higher launch price make it a slow starter?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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A bit slower than the X360. In a normal scenario it would have sold clearly faster during its first two years, since next gen will take on much quicker than current gen did (but that doesn't mean nextgen lifetime sales will beat current gen), but MS screwed things up.

It's not mainly due to the $100 higher price, it's due to the severe loss of momentum for the Xbone because of the historically bad PR during reveal and E3. MS has alienated lots of people who normally would have stayed in their familiar echo system (Xbox Live), but many of them will now hesitate, and some will jump over to the competition instead



faster first year, slower since third year



I'll update it with my vision later today



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

I think it will sell faster. but not much. I think the price will slow it down greatly.



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Faster first but then it will slow down a lot unless it gets a price cut soon.



I myself see a couple of possible scenario's with some likely events:

1. demand>supply but microsoft can't complete enough for about the first couple of months.
2. after that its likely that we get alot of people who love the brand but aren't early adopters iow regular sales pattern untill holidays 2014
3. holidays 2014 huge boost by possible pricecut
4. after holidays 2014 new models/pricecuts( and or removal kinect from package)
5. higher starting prices allows more pricecuts when finally mass producing

so i expect a relative same start as both the xbox and the 360 but due to the larger userbase from previous consoles will pull ahead later



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Slower in the shortrun as this is the first time two consoles are releasing so soon next to each other.  Faster in the long run as MSFT has more first parties than ever before.  Plus I think Kinect will be a selling point.




       

I think it will start low, then quickly gain momentum.

My change my opinion after seeing the first commercials. They really need to educate the public as to why the system is so much better than anything else out on the market.

It shouldn't be too hard. They did it with Kinect and there is nothing else out there like this system.



 

Really not sure I see any point of Consol over PC's since Kinect, Wii and other alternative ways to play have been abandoned. 

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