By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

Kasz216 on 18 August 2013

Seems unlikely. Not just from a sales perspective, but a production perspective as well.

Considering Sony's financial situation and the PS3 post launch debacle I doubt they have put up enough money for that much capacity.

Keep in mind they have to purchase long term contracts for a  lot of these parts well in advance. (As in, they probably already have capacity locked until the end of the year.)

I imagine they're afraid that even if they do well negative signs will occur if they have another "Penny Arcade" moment.

I'd expect PS4's to be sold out until February or March but not approach the WII U total.  (The PS4 sold great, and next financial year we'll have even more supply is a great line for greater company PR.)



Around the Network
yo_john117 on 18 August 2013
Slimebeast said:
yo_john117 said:

I won't go ahead and say that's entirely impossible...but I will go ahead and say that I think there is a 99% chance of that not happening.

However, if everything went literally perfect, I could see around 5ish million sold during that time period. In reality, I expect about 3.5-4 million though if it launches in October.

Sounds reasonable. But it all also depends on how many units they ship.

Back in 2005 and 2006 the launch numbers were miniscule, like 1.5 million for a whole Holiday season. Compared to an ordinary PS3 or X360 Holiday in the gen that's a pathetic number.

I think this time there will be much much more supply, for both PS4 and Xbone. But how much, that is the question.

I think 4 million PS4s would be wonderful (and perhaps +2 mill Xbones), nextgen would start with a bang. This would be so good for all the devs making launch window software.

Indeed. Last generation launch numbers were pretty sad to say the least. That many PS4's and One's selling during the launch would be wonderful and probably mean better support for the first few years than the 360 and PS3 had.



JoeTheBro on 18 August 2013
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Yeah I've also been thinking this is possible. Wii U by my projections should end the year at around 6-7 million though. PS4 could beat that, but I don't know if I expect it to.

wrong on both.

Wrong on calling me wrong.

Or at least wrong on calling me wrong like you're some prophet without giving a single explanation as to why.

you're predictable.

stating that wii u will only sell another 3 million on the next 4 and a half months (wich include the holidays and LOTS of exclusives coming) is plain wrong. it may even sell those 3 million on december alone.

stating ps4 will sell 6-7 millions in that time period is reaaaly wrong. it's unheard of any console to even have that much systems available near launch, let alone sell it all.

stating both of those things is just double wrong.

Look at Wii U sales. This entire year it has only sold 1 million units. 1 million in 8 months. During launch when it had all its hype and lots of games, when supply wasn't an issue, it only managed a bit over 2 million units. You really think that this holiday it will sell double to triple what it did last year? Its games this holiday are pretty similar in quality and quantity to its launch lineup plus it has much greater competition. It could even have a worse holiday but that's not probable.

Everything we know says they have no manufacturing issues. 7 million is fully possible.

Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Conegamer said:
If it launches in October, late October, it should sell...2.5-3mil come the end of the year, maybe 3.5 max. Saying it will double that is, to me, crazy.

But there you are.


The Wii U launching in mid November managed 2.2 mil. Getting above that shouldn't be too hard.

getting above that was not the point of the topic.

Not the point of the topic sure, but I'm replying to his post which was saying something different.



Links

Piernik on 18 August 2013

In the last two months of 2001 Sony sold 3.000.000 of PS2. And now the market is bigger.
They could easly sell 6 millions worldwide from October 1st.



teigaga on 18 August 2013

Very unlikely

I can't see them supplying more than 4m consoles for the holiday. I expect the wii U to reach 5m in the worst case scenario for nintendo, so I can't see it happening.



Around the Network
areason on 18 August 2013

Very unlikely, i think it would do a maximum of 3.5-4 million that is if it does launch in October in all markets.



Zero999 on 18 August 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Yeah I've also been thinking this is possible. Wii U by my projections should end the year at around 6-7 million though. PS4 could beat that, but I don't know if I expect it to.

wrong on both.

Wrong on calling me wrong.

Or at least wrong on calling me wrong like you're some prophet without giving a single explanation as to why.

you're predictable.

stating that wii u will only sell another 3 million on the next 4 and a half months (wich include the holidays and LOTS of exclusives coming) is plain wrong. it may even sell those 3 million on december alone.

stating ps4 will sell 6-7 millions in that time period is reaaaly wrong. it's unheard of any console to even have that much systems available near launch, let alone sell it all.

stating both of those things is just double wrong.

Look at Wii U sales. This entire year it has only sold 1 million units. 1 million in 8 months. During launch when it had all its hype and lots of games, when supply wasn't an issue, it only managed a bit over 2 million units. You really think that this holiday it will sell double to triple what it did last year? Its games this holiday are pretty similar in quality and quantity to its launch lineup plus it has much greater competition. It could even have a worse holiday but that's not probable.

Everything we know says they have no manufacturing issues. 7 million is fully possible.

Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Conegamer said:
If it launches in October, late October, it should sell...2.5-3mil come the end of the year, maybe 3.5 max. Saying it will double that is, to me, crazy.

But there you are.


The Wii U launching in mid November managed 2.2 mil. Getting above that shouldn't be too hard.

getting above that was not the point of the topic.

Not the point of the topic sure, but I'm replying to his post which was saying something different.

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.



milkyjoe on 18 August 2013

Erm... they still haven't confirmed a 2013 launch for Japan. Which would suggest stock issues...



VGChartz

leo-j on 18 August 2013

Sony did say they expect to out ship any one of their console launches to date......

I think this will be the most successful console launch in history



 

mM
Chris1596 on 18 August 2013

I think 3.5-4.5 million from October to years end (if it does get a October release that is) 6-7 million is very ambitious especially when the PS3 is doing so well too