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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii U, PS4, One exclusive sales

Purple on 15 August 2013
zorg1000 said:
Can somebody explain to me why so many people think Donkey Kong will only do 1-1.5 million?
  • Tiny console userbase
  • Over saturation of 2D platformers
  • Competing directly with 2.5D Mario on release
  • Gameplay footage seems very uninspiring and nothing we haven't seen before
  • 3DS port flopped

That said, I think any game that sells over a million on Wii U would have to be considered a massive success. There won't be too many in the consoles lifetime.



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zorg1000 on 15 August 2013
Purple said:
zorg1000 said:
Can somebody explain to me why so many people think Donkey Kong will only do 1-1.5 million?
  • Tiny console userbase
  • Over saturation of 2D platformers
  • Competing directly with 2.5D Mario on release
  • Gameplay footage seems very uninspiring and nothing we haven't seen before
  • 3DS port flopped

That said, I think any game that sells over a million on Wii U would have to be considered a massive success. There won't be too many in the consoles lifetime.

Every mainline console DK in the past 20 years has sold over 5 million except for DKC 3(it released over a year after next gen started). Thats on SNES, N64 and Wii so install base doesnt really affect this series sales. Also Nintendo games have tremendous legs and this game will likely still be selling decently 3-4 years from now.

Previous games in the series werent affected by other platfformers, SNES, N64 and Wii were all filled with that genre. 

And in no way shape of form can u call the 3DS port a flop. It is currently at 650k, will moat definitely be over 1 million by the end of the year and very possible to sell 1.5-2 million lifetime. Not alot of  ports can do that.

Even if Wii U ends up with lifetime sales of 15 million, this game will sell 2-3 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Purple on 15 August 2013
zorg1000 said:
Purple said:
zorg1000 said:
Can somebody explain to me why so many people think Donkey Kong will only do 1-1.5 million?
  • Tiny console userbase
  • Over saturation of 2D platformers
  • Competing directly with 2.5D Mario on release
  • Gameplay footage seems very uninspiring and nothing we haven't seen before
  • 3DS port flopped

That said, I think any game that sells over a million on Wii U would have to be considered a massive success. There won't be too many in the consoles lifetime.

Every mainline console DK in the past 20 years has sold over 5 million except for DKC 3(it released over a year after next gen started). Thats on SNES, N64 and Wii so install base doesnt really affect this series sales. Also Nintendo games have tremendous legs and this game will likely still be selling decently 3-4 years from now.

Previous games in the series werent affected by other platfformers, SNES, N64 and Wii were all filled with that genre. 

And in no way shape of form can u call the 3DS port a flop. It is currently at 650k, will moat definitely be over 1 million by the end of the year and very possible to sell 1.5-2 million lifetime. Not alot of  ports can do that.

Even if Wii U ends up with lifetime sales of 15 million, this game will sell 2-3 million.

I do hope you're right. I'm just not feeling too confident.

I guess the other thing is people like me are a little annoyed that Retro's "secret project" was something so bland. It's removed a lot of the excitment I would otherwise be feeling for a new DK.



zorg1000 on 15 August 2013
Purple said:
zorg1000 said:
Purple said:
zorg1000 said:
Can somebody explain to me why so many people think Donkey Kong will only do 1-1.5 million?
  • Tiny console userbase
  • Over saturation of 2D platformers
  • Competing directly with 2.5D Mario on release
  • Gameplay footage seems very uninspiring and nothing we haven't seen before
  • 3DS port flopped

That said, I think any game that sells over a million on Wii U would have to be considered a massive success. There won't be too many in the consoles lifetime.

Every mainline console DK in the past 20 years has sold over 5 million except for DKC 3(it released over a year after next gen started). Thats on SNES, N64 and Wii so install base doesnt really affect this series sales. Also Nintendo games have tremendous legs and this game will likely still be selling decently 3-4 years from now.

Previous games in the series werent affected by other platfformers, SNES, N64 and Wii were all filled with that genre. 

And in no way shape of form can u call the 3DS port a flop. It is currently at 650k, will moat definitely be over 1 million by the end of the year and very possible to sell 1.5-2 million lifetime. Not alot of  ports can do that.

Even if Wii U ends up with lifetime sales of 15 million, this game will sell 2-3 million.

I do hope you're right. I'm just not feeling too confident.

I guess the other thing is people like me are a little annoyed that Retro's "secret project" was something so bland. It's removed a lot of the excitment I would otherwise be feeling for a new DK.

I was disappointed too since I wanted Metroid, Star Fox or a new ip, then I played DKC Returns 3D(never played the Wii version) and now im excited for a sequel. Also the majority of people who buy DK games probqbly dont even know who Retro Studios is and couldnt care less who makes the game.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

prayformojo on 15 August 2013

I know we saw crazy numbers on Wii but come on guys, it's not happening again. Take a look at the Gamecube. The highest selling game was Smash Bros. and I think that sold like, what, 7 million? Unless the Wii-U picks it up and pulls a rising phoenix, don't expect to see numbers any higher than that.



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zorg1000 on 15 August 2013
prayformojo said:

I know we saw crazy numbers on Wii but come on guys, it's not happening again. Take a look at the Gamecube. The highest selling game was Smash Bros. and I think that sold like, what, 7 million? Unless the Wii-U picks it up and pulls a rising phoenix, don't expect to see numbers any higher than that.


I dont expect anywhere near Wii numbers for alot of games but one thing to take into account is alot of Nintendo franchises have a steady amount of sales regardless of console install base.

3D Mario for example, the revolutionary titles (64 & Galaxy) sold 10-12 million and the direct sequels/spin-off esque titles (Sunshine & Galaxy 2) sold roughly 7 million each. That is on consoles with install bases of 21, 33, and 100 million.

Ever since SNES, mainline Donkey Kong Kong games have sold over 5 million (DKC, DKC2, DK64, DKC Returns) with the exception of DKC3. Thats on console with install bases of 33, 49 and 100 million. Even Konga/Jungle Beat were able to sell over 1 million and those werent mainline games and used an unpopular add-on Bongos.

The first mainline Zelda entry on each console has sold 4-8 million (Zelda 1-NES, LTTP-SNES, OoT-N64, WW-GC, TP-Wii) while the second title on each console sells about half of the first. Thats on consoles ranging from 21-100 million install bases.

Smash Bros is a series that has never sold less than 5 million, again on consoles ranging from 21-100 million. Its going to be on both Wii U and 3DS this time so that may hurt its sales.

Ever since N64, Mario Kart has sold roughly 1/3 of the install base of the console it released on. MK64-10m on 33m install base, MKDD-7m on 21m, MKWii-33m on 100m.

Even if Wii U were to sell 10-15m in its entire lifetime then these series I listed above should all sell 3-5 million, thats worst case scenario. Im pwrsonally expecting Wii U to sell 40 million minimun, if thats the case then all these series should sell 5-10 million and maybe more with heavy bundling.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 15 August 2013
AnthonyW86 said:
Let's make this fun and only count third party exclusives.


Go ahead, im not sure what third party exclusives are coming to each console



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 15 August 2013
Seece said:
Conegamer said:
areason said:
Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Titan Fall outselling Smash Bros and selling the same amount as 3D Mario.......Bahahahahahahah!!!!


I'm not sure how much 3d mario and smash bros did on the wii but i think it was 10 million for each, i just halfed the numbers. 

I don't think that's how it works. Especially Smash Bros, it was the highest selling game on the GC and sold more than your Wii U prediction.

But Titanfall is a new franchise. Why should it sell so much, I ask?

What does being new have anything to do with sales? Plenty of new IPs on their first outing do gangbusters.

Mario Galaxy games did around 10m no? I don't see Super Mario World 3D getting near those figures. Gamecubes userbase was very densley Nintendo fans, I don't think the WiiU is going to be similar.

U dont think Wii U will be densly made up of Nintendo fans? Please explain



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JWeinCom on 15 August 2013
Purple said:
zorg1000 said:
Can somebody explain to me why so many people think Donkey Kong will only do 1-1.5 million?

That said, I think any game that sells over a million on Wii U would have to be considered a massive success. There won't be too many in the consoles lifetime.


Gamecube had 45 million sellers.  Probably more due to undertracked games.  Two of those were DK games.  Not even mainline DK games, but offbeat DK games that required a peripheral.



DietSoap on 21 August 2013

 Wii U

Super Mario 3d Land: 11 Million
DKC Tropical Freeze: 4.5 Million
Mario Kart 8: 14 million
Smash Bros U: 10 million
X: 800k 

Also 2.5 million for Bayonetta 2 if they put Bayonetta in Smash, 800k if they don't. Maybe 500k for W101.
 
PS4

Killzone: Shadow Fall: 2.8 Million
Infamous Second Son : 2.6 Million
Drive Club: 1.2 Million
Knack: 600k

XO

Forza 5: 4 Million
Dead Rising 3: 2.8 Million
Ryze: 1.4 million
Titan Fall: 7 million