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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Are Xbox One and PS4 Doomed to follow in the footsteps of Wii U?

ninjablade said:
xbone and ps4 will out sell the wiiu by the end of 2013, as long as they have enough supply.


Only by their holidays sales? not really...give them 6 months and WiiU will be in 3rd place



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I dont think so, simply because PS4 and Xbox One will have support.



                            

RolStoppable said:
Carl2291 said:
I dont think so, simply because PS4 and Xbox One will have support.

They won't have support that makes a difference though.


Neither did the PS3, for about 18 Months, yet it never did nearly as bad as the Wii U. Poor support is still support and its far, far better than going weeks on end with nothing releasing.

Support will be strong enough to keep sales at a reasonable level. Nothing brilliant, nothing terrible.

I think it will also help the PS4 at least, that they arent forcing a new peripheral out - Theyre going for the same audience. No gimmicks. No confusion. Just games (with the obvious extras).

I think one of the main problems with Wii U, is that it doesnt appeal to the Wii audience. It doesnt have the killer Wii Sports app. It doesnt have the ease of use that Wii had. It isnt affordable, like Wii. The PS4 will/does appeal to the PS audience. The One will/does appeal to the Xbox audience (though not as much).



                            

MDMAlliance said:
ninjablade said:
xbone and ps4 will out sell the wiiu by the end of 2013, as long as they have enough supply.


I would bet anything you want that this wont happen.

edit: The only way it is even remotely possible is if you combine their sales.

i meant they will out wiiu total as of today.



ninjablade said:
MDMAlliance said:
ninjablade said:
xbone and ps4 will out sell the wiiu by the end of 2013, as long as they have enough supply.


I would bet anything you want that this wont happen.

edit: The only way it is even remotely possible is if you combine their sales.

i meant they will out wiiu total as of today.

Pfff, XBox 1 and PS4 as of today have 0 sold. 



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The consoles have better ongoing support then the wii-u with games like the crew and infamous in early 2014. Sales will go down after launch but not to the levels of the wii u.



Ouroboros24 said:

The doom and gloom seems to be focused squarely on Wii U.  Not even Nintendo as a whole since they have been selling the most console with the 3ds and sales of their software has also been fantastic, through again the 3ds.  What I'm wondering is how will the Xbox one and ps4 do after the initial release sometime this holiday season?

I'll be first to say it, the PS4 and XBox one are magnificent devices, powerful, beautiful and even a little bit intimidating.  Great stuff, but who is going to buy it.  I'm not.  I want to, don't get me wrong.  I have the xbox 360 and ps3 to tide me over, plus i'm never impressed by any launch game so I'll be trying to catch both about a year and a half later.  If I had the money, I would scoop both up day 1, but I don't, so sad for me.

My question is, are the xbox one and PS4 going to suffer the same thing Wii U is going through now?  There are many factors that may just have it play that way.  For one, the two systems are very identical.  It's another red ocean for both consoles.  Fans will either opt for one and not get both.  The starting price is over $400.  Remember the PS3 and Xbox 360 slow slumps in 2007?  COD: Ghosts will be on the ps3 and xbox, no need to get it on PS4 or xbone.  Software sells consoles, they both have to have something killer if they want to start pumping those machines to the masses.

What do you think?  Is the Wii U a harbinger of what's to come for these two arriving consoles? 


Fortunately for sony and microsoft, Plenty of other people do.

The systems will have brilliant launch line ups. whether you're a 360 or ps3 owner, both the ps4/Xbox 1 have better fall line ups then the current gen systems.
 Xbox 360: Fable anniversery / Xbox One: Forza 5, Dead Rising 3, Ryse, Killer Instinct
 PS3: Ratchet and Clank, GT6 / PS4: Killzone Shadowfall, Driveclub, Knack, Planetside2, Warframe.

Unless you're a Grand Turismo fiend, next gen clearly win.

Bar batman and GT6, the most anticipated holiday titles are coming to the next gen platformers. If you can afford it I don't know why you would choose to play Battlefield 4, Watchdogs and Ac4 on ps3/360 as opposed to PS4/X1.

Also I think a lot of people forget how bad the Wii U's launch window was. It had a draught lasting around 5 months which was actually a record. A new system with garunteed support and a bright future doesn't need alot to sell, what teh sp4/X1 have lined up is more then enough. 

 




teigaga said:
Ouroboros24 said:


Fortunately for sony and microsoft, Plenty of other people do.

The systems will have brilliant launch line ups. whether you're a 360 or ps3 owner, both the ps4/Xbox 1 have better fall line ups then the current gen systems.
 Xbox 360: Fable anniversery / Xbox One: Forza 5, Dead Rising 3, Ryse, Killer Instinct
 PS3: Ratchet and Clank, GT6 / PS4: Killzone Shadowfall, Driveclub, Knack, Planetside2, Warframe.

Unless you're a Grand Turismo fiend, next gen clearly win.

Bar batman and GT6, the most anticipated holiday titles are coming to the next gen platformers. If you can afford it I don't know why you would choose to play Battlefield 4, Watchdogs and Ac4 on ps3/360 as opposed to PS4/X1.

Also I think a lot of people forget how bad the Wii U's launch window was. It had a draught lasting around 5 months which was actually a record. A new system with garunteed support and a bright future doesn't need alot to sell, what teh sp4/X1 have lined up is more then enough. 

 




lol, people don't buy things just because they can afford them. That'd be uber foolish as you'd be broke in no time. The real question is why would anyone pay $460+ to play a game they could buy for $60? Even if you don't already have a console, it'd still make more sense to buy a PS3 or 360 instead of an 8th gen console for any of the many cross gen games. Also, GTA5 may be releasing before the holidays, but it will still play a major role during them, so add that to the list of PS360 exclusives aswell.

RolStoppable said:

The economic conditions have changed drastically, so anytime you extrapolate from previous generations to the eighth one without taking the current world economy into account, you will end up being horribly wrong.

You have seen the Vita which was supposed to do well. It was priced similarly to the PSP, but launched with a much better lineup. About 1.5 years back (right around the Vita's launch in America and Europe) we had a discussion where you were insisting that all the PSV needed was a reasonable amount of games, because everything else was right. That was in response to my claims that the handheld would struggle badly. I then told you that the PSV will definitely need a price cut, because by May 2012 it will have fallen below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales. What happened is that the PSV got there in April, a month before my estimate.

Now you can come up with any excuses you like (smartphones etc.), but there is always Japan where the PSP was popular throughout its entire life. The PSV already got its price cut to 20,000 yen and last week it didn't even get past the 20k mark on the back of a new software release that pushed 80k units. The PSP didn't break a sweat to have a baseline of 30k units. The PSV goes for the same audience as the PSP, but that audience isn't really getting on board just yet. One deciding factor in this is that the PSP was still supplied with plenty of games well into the eighth generation and that is exactly what we can expect for the PS3 and 360 as well. Why go for an expensive upgrade to play the same exact games (or rather fewer games, because not all third parties will be present on the new consoles immediately)? The intial PS4 and X1 exclusives don't scream "killer app", so there will be a widespread lack of incentives for consumers to buy into the eighth generation at first, resulting in disappointing sales for next gen hardware.

As for price specifically, $500 was insane in 2006, so it's even more bonkers in 2013. The X1 is destined to struggle based on price alone. $400 for the PS4 is also a hefty amount, but right now many are under the illusion that it is a great price for two reasons: The PS3 was $600 and the X1 is $500. But just because there is something worse doesn't make something else good. And when you hear news like "40% of the youth in Spain is unemployed" (the age demographic that the PS4 is supposed to sell to intially), then even traditional strongholds of Sony won't help them much. It is possible that a $400 PS4 will do worse than the $600 PS3 because of the current economic conditions.

Lastly, to put some numbers out there, I say that both the X1 and PS4 will go below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales in 2014. For the X1 I am more daring and say that it will go below 50k, because the system has too much going against it, based on the currently available information. Now tell me at which point you would consider sales to be terrible.


I really dont think price would be a problem for Wii U if support was on the console. Its hard to justify paying $300/$350 for a console with no worthwhile games releasing for it, but when games ARE being released and a good library is there, the machine can do quite well, as proven by the PS3 through to 2009 before it dropped below $300 with the Slim. It was still pushing 100k-150k per Week because support was still there, even though the support itself was nothing to shout and scream about.

On the point of Japan, we can see just how poorly handhelds are doing there not by looking at PSV to PSP, but by looking at 3DS to DS. The 3DS has been on the market now for what, 30 Months? Its selling ~55k per Week in Japan with far, far weaker competition than the DS had. The DS was selling well over 100,000 units per Week in Japan ~30 Months after release, while the PSP was selling ~20-30k per Week. The evidence is there that the handheld market has shrunk, not only in America and Europe, but in Japan also. We know this is due to smartphones (Along with a lack of games for PSV/early 3DS and high prices for both). The PS4, Wii U and Xbox One dont have this smartphone competition in the home.

In short, I dont think its right to compare handhelds to homeconsoles. Handhelds have extra competition, and 3DS/PSV launched at extremely high pricepoints for handheld consoles. PS4, U and One dont have the extra competition and 2 of them are priced at points we have come to expect from this industry over the last generation (aside from Wii, that is).

The games releasing on PSP that kept sales chugging along, were PSP games. Many of them simply werent on the Vita. This is where they differ on that point, because the majority of games releasing after PS4/One release are cross-gen games. Call of Duty. FIFA. Battlefield. Watch_Dogs. Etc. As for paying extra to play those same games, I think people will and I think it shows in preorders for certain games too. Watch_Dogs is a good example, where the PS4 version of the game is out-preordering the current gen versions. Certain games on current gen are also taking a hit, preorder-wise, due to next-gen versions being available. Battlefield and Call of Duty for example are down on previous releases on the 360 and PS3 by quite a bit. As more next-gen consoles are sold, this will happen more and more, especially when people start to see the differences between generations.

All depends on the support. If these big games are still hitting PS4/One, then people will continue to buy at least one of the consoles.

I wouldnt be surprised to see them drop below the 100k mark in the first Year, as they will also be impacted by 360/PS3 pricecuts at somepoint, probably in the Summer droughts. I can easily see the One hovering around 50k and the PS4 hovering around 100k during certain Weeks, but at the same time I can see them selling 70/80k and 120/130k per Week too, respecively. If were talking about new platforms then Id say anything below 60k per Week is terrible Worldwide and a cause for concern. 60k-100k is bad. 100k-150k is average. 150k-200k is good. 200k+ is great.

I simply dont think we will see either console hit Wii U lows, though Im not predicting anything solid until were closer to launch. Still 2 big game shows to see.



                            

For the X1 I really don't know. Before the 180° I was thinking about the same or even worse than the Wii U, but now the situation is a bit different. I think the X1, because of the price, will be a better than the Wii U but not really by a whole lot, depends on the steady flow games it gets after launch (and I mean exclusive content that's not available on current gen consoles).

For the PS4 it looks a lot better, but overall I don't expect anything huge, or no way similar to the Wii for example. Worst case scenario for Sony: PS3 level of success. But again the number of games after launch will be the definitive factor.

I'm talking about the first year on the market obviously, in the long run both consoles will be fine thanks to 3rd party support. I personally believe that the cross-gen games will affect the hardware sales of the X1 and PS4 by a lot, and until 3rd parties decide to fully ignore the PS360, the new consoles will be affected, and imo this will take a long time considering dev cost and all that jazz. There's also the shitty economy, but that's a much more bigger issue.



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