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"Microsoft will vanish in 5 or 10 years, Facebook in 3" explains FSF President.

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - "Microsoft will vanish in 5 or 10 years, Facebook in 3" explains FSF President.

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What will happen?

Microsoft and FB will disappear. 62 12.16%
 
Only Microsoft will vanish. 22 4.31%
 
Only FB will vanish. 102 20.00%
 
Neither will be erased. 148 29.02%
 
They both will be erased,... 69 13.53%
 
No one lives forever. 58 11.37%
 
Show me the results. 45 8.82%
 
Total:506

Nobody can call when MS might not be here. They make so much money by default from business and the computer industry is as essential as the car and oil industries in our culture. Facebook is also an aggressive and powerful company who could take a lot of risks that we cannot predict. These claims are baseless. Could they both be gone in 20 years? Sure, but more likely they will transition into some other complex entity that will be a mainstay of our culture for some time. All of this could be superseded though if the world experiences drastic power shifts or war.



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I don't really understand the guy's point. I mean, I get the fact that MS, Google and Facebook control a large percentage of the internet and with that, a part of modern culture as well as the flow of information. I don't disagree with that. But what exactly is he saying?. Is he saying that just because these companies are morally bankrupt in the way they handle themselves they will disappear? just cause?. How many companies today are morally bankrupt and have been for decades, if not centuries, and still remain alive and successful?. That seems like a weird point of view to me. And I bet he will be kicking himself in 5-10 years when people mock his prediction.



This sounds more like their whishful thinking rather than the result of analytical thinking. Facebook is probably building up safety measures to not end up as Myspace, and Microsoft is Microsoft, almost every single business in the planet recquire their services in one way or another.



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Spike0503 said:
I don't really understand the guy's point. I mean, I get the fact that MS, Google and Facebook control a large percentage of the internet and with that, a part of modern culture as well as the flow of information. I don't disagree with that. But what exactly is he saying?. Is he saying that just because these companies are morally bankrupt in the way they handle themselves they will disappear? just cause?. How many companies today are morally bankrupt and have been for decades, if not centuries, and still remain alive and successful?. That seems like a weird point of view to me. And I bet he will be kicking himself in 5-10 years when people mock his prediction.

I think he was expecting two things to happen:

1. That laws concerning the internet would significantly change in a short amount of time. He must have never paid attention to how slow politics move.

2. That users would value their privacy and all that, and subsequently reject companies with a bad reputation in that field. He was probably locked up in a room with inadequate air circulation for far too long.



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RolStoppable said:

I think he was expecting two things to happen:

1. That laws concerning the internet would significantly change in a short amount of time. He must have never paid attention to how slow politics move.

2. That users would value their privacy and all that, and subsequently reject companies with a bad reputation in that field. He was probably locked up in a room with inadequate air circulation for far too long.

That kind of naivety is endearing in a child but it's almost bizarre to watch in an adult.

Reminds me of a web-series I once watched, a guy was discussing something with a police detective in a cafe:



Guy: What you need you will find from one of the corrupt officers in your station.

Detective: Corrupt?. How do you know there's any corrupt officers where I work?

Guy: Detective...*Looks at him as you would look a child when he's asking about the bees and the birds*



Sorry for the tangent but I always remember laughing way too hard at that, haha.



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Microsoft and the Xbox brand are still a very relevant force in the gaming industry. I hope they are for many a year to come. I like to see a healthy industry where everybody thrives.



Facebook may go away, but not anytime soon, because there isn't a good alternative to it right now. Of course, we middle-aged (well, maybe not quite, but getting close) and old folks still use it as a way to keep in touch with people, plus the messenger is a free alternative to text messaging. If and when someone comes out with a social network that's as good or better, then maybe people will ditch FB in large enough numbers to run them out of business.

As for MS, Windows is simply too big for them to go under any time soon. They are the de facto OS for non-Apple PCs. They probably make a ton of money off of their other software, too. I imagine that, even with the losses in market share this generation, Xbox still generates a healthy profit for MS. Unless someone comes out with a better OS for PCs, MS isn't going anywhere.



Microsoft is making way too much money to go away any time soon. I rather invest in Microsoft than Apple to be quite honest because their portfolio is diverse and they dominate quite a few industries (Computer OS, Business/productivity software and about to dominate cloud servers). Nowadays, in order to create a business, you have to go through Microsoft it would seem.



Alby_da_Wolf said:
They won't disappear, but they'll lose power. FBK will see its power resized due to scandals, but despite them people still prefer it to other social networks by a large margin, and more than a billion people won't drop it due to the network of relationships they established on it.
OTOH MS won't disappear due to its presence in enterprises, but due to competing mobile OS' replacing Windows PCs for many home users, it will receive less money from that market that up until now allowed it to offer enterprises a competitive yet highly profitable product, so it will have to find a less favourable compromise between Windows profits and competitiveness in the business market. It won't disappear anyway, and it will remain profitable, but eventually it won't be able anymore to conquer slices of new markets with the brute force of its huge cash, as divisions losing money to keep or increase market share will gradually become more significant for the company's balance.

I find your comment interesting. you have described the situation good in my opinion. I also think that both companies will lose power.

But gone forever... I think No(i'm sure), because both have much money. And if yes.. President "Trump" would certainly help his american companies :P

ZODIARKrebirth said:
maybe the big hype for facebook is over, but i don't think it will be happen in 3 years

the big hype is over, thats true.

Last edited by KazumaKiryu - on 03 October 2018

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KazumaKiryu said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
They won't disappear, but they'll lose power. FBK will see its power resized due to scandals, but despite them people still prefer it to other social networks by a large margin, and more than a billion people won't drop it due to the network of relationships they established on it.
OTOH MS won't disappear due to its presence in enterprises, but due to competing mobile OS' replacing Windows PCs for many home users, it will receive less money from that market that up until now allowed it to offer enterprises a competitive yet highly profitable product, so it will have to find a less favourable compromise between Windows profits and competitiveness in the business market. It won't disappear anyway, and it will remain profitable, but eventually it won't be able anymore to conquer slices of new markets with the brute force of its huge cash, as divisions losing money to keep or increase market share will gradually become more significant for the company's balance.

I find your comment interesting. you have described the situation good in my opinion. I also think that both companies will lose power.

But gone forever... I think No(i'm sure), because both have much money. And if yes.. President "Trump" would certainly help his american companies :P

ZODIARKrebirth said:
maybe the big hype for facebook is over, but i don't think it will be happen in 3 years

the big hype is over, thats true.

A help by Trump in matters he doesn't understand could end up damaging MS instead of helping it. Car makers already told him they don't need his help on pollution rules and they are perfectly able to follow the previous roadmap for pollution reduction, indeed tough anti-pollution rules favour US, EU and JP car makers and hinder competitors from emerging markets that can offer cheap costs but are still some steps behind car market leaders on high tech, unless they obtain it under licence from them. Some "brilliant" idea on SW market and protection of US SW makers could actually persuade governments outside of USA that still heavily rely on MS SW for their public administration to switch to competing SW for any task allowing it.



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