I'm not sure why the price cut doesn't count.  It kept sales above a baseline of 170k.  When exactly will the Wii U even see a week at 170k, much less sustained sales?  In the four weeks starting with the price cut the 3DS sold 12% more than the Wii U has in the past 6 months.  Does it matter how long the drought period is when the Wii U sold less in the third week of January than the 3DS ever has? (it would be the second week of January if we discount the week right before the 3DS price drop).  Even in December it was showing weakness.  Also, weren't you just arguing that the 3DS drought period actually lasted until November?  Now you're telling me the Wii U one is longer and worse. 

Another thing, why do N64 remakes count, but the Wii U releases don't?  Prior to release people certainly had some expectations for NSMBU, ZombiU, Nintendo Land, Lego City, Monster Hunter, etc.  Now the delays certainly didn't help things, but the Wii U fell to terrible numbers back when Rayman, Pikmin, Wii Fit, and Game & Wario were still launch window games.

I meant Sony and Microsoft in the general console space.  When the 360 has been leading the US for the last two and a half years straight, it puts the Wii U in a different situation than the 3DS.  For that Nintendo needed to win over DS buyers.  Now they either need to win over 360 buyers or somehow convince the casual Wii market to come back.  Neither are very likely prospects.  New buyers will likely go for the 360 as it is cheaper and has a broader library.  Also arguably a better lineup this year.  Current 360 owners seem much more likely to move to the Xbox One or stay with their 360s.  As for the casual audience, the lineup this year isn't really geared towards them.  Even for the games that are, do they justify the entry price for consumers?

So that would leave them with the Nintendo base.  That audience hasn't exactly proven itself to be a kingmaker.  So if we go back to the 3DS, I think we can both agree the Wii U cannot come close the Japanese numbers.  the 3DS did 17.3% more in 2011 than the best year for the Wii.  To hammer it home, the Wii U would need to more than double (135% higher than Wii) the Wii numbers in the back half of 2007.  Even with the Pikmin boost, the Wii was 5x higher in the same week in 2007.  Europe has also historically been less receptive to traditional Nintendo franchises as well as being less receptive to the Wii U so far.  So it is fair to say it won't perform like the 3DS there either.  So if the Wii U doesn't perform like the 3DS in two regions where it saw 60% of its sales in 2011, I'm not sure if  "I read that same crap you're saying two years ago, except it was about 3ds." holds as much weight.

bolded 1: and wasn't it? 3ds took about a month or two to start doing bad numbers since their march release. wii u's drought goes from january to august and it is much more barren of games than the 3ds one.

bolded 2: those games hadn't released yet (many still hasn't) so this launch window crap you're saying doesn't matter.

bolded 3: the wii u performing worse or better than 3ds is not the point. that was a stupid statement to try distorting my ideas. my response was to counter the stupid statement that said "wich is the next game supposed to save wii u?" and I did read that kind of crap during the 3ds time. and that being said, wii u and 3ds situations are quite similar and wii u will probably have a 3ds style turn around.

First week sales are NEVER a good indicator of long-term success. There's always the risk that it'll be a fluke.

To begin with, Smash and Mario Kart will be far better indicators of the WiiU's prospects. If those can't sustain the WiiU's sales in a big way, along with all the other stuff out for it by then, the system will be dead and buried as far as I'm concerned. I'm not expecting much of a lasting impact out of Pikmin.

Pikmin 1 FW in Japan 103,077
Pikmin 2 FW in Japan 189,246
New Play Control Pikmin 1 FW in Japan 44,423
New Play Control Pikmin 2 FW in Japan 27,950

According to VGChartz...

Well I don't think it did that outstanding as a main entry title that took a decade to happen...

I think it was a just ok FW...

It took a decade to happen, the IP was old and hasn't been updated in awhile. That's one factor why this one didn't sell as well as Pikmin 2. The other is that Nintendo made the decision to port it onto the Wii U from the Wii, and at the time they didn't know how horrible the sales figures of the Wii U could be. I'm sure that this game could've done better even if it was also on the GameCube.

Well if you consider the 3DS numbers post price cut as still part of the drought, then the drought basically started the week after it came out in the US.  That would put it at roughly the same length as your stated Wii U drought.

The point is that the Wii U still had a somewhat promising lineup on the horizon.  New consoles aren't usually seeing releases on January 6th, so why did the Wii U fall so low so quickly?  You seem to be acting like it is normal for a console to come out and then grind to a screeching halt a month later if games aren't released immediately.  What was out at the start of January for the Wii, 360, PS3, Gamecube, etc that allowed them to have higher weekly sales than the Wii U?

How is the performance compared to the 3DS not the point?  If it isn't, then it is basically just a meaningless expression.  I'm also not sure what you are getting at saying I'm distorting your ideas when you go on to say the Wii U will probably have a 3DS style turn around.  That kind of gets to the crux of the issue.  People like to just throw that out there without anything to back it up, or really any clarification on what such a turnaround would entail.  Does it just mean seeing an equivalent percentage rise?  Because I doubt that people going on and on about the 3DS expect the Wii U to do less than 2 million across Oct-Dec.  Does it mean the Wii U selling the same as the 3DS in those months?  That is probably the more likely interpretation, but how exactly would it happen?  Also when will it happen?  You seem to feel that the 3DS didn't turn it around until November, but it sold 2.7 million in Aug/Sept/Oct.  If the Wii U is still doing low numbers during that time period will it just not count?

3ds had a promising lineup in the horizon with kid icarus, kingdom hearts and resident evil already announced. and if a console didn't release with a system seller to begin with, then it's normal for sales to fall quickly if no big release comes imediately.

the 3ds like turn around simply means that it's doing bad because of lack of games but sales will pick up accordingly when games release. it's not about doing better or worse than 3ds but turning the current situation around.

Just because something is widely speculated, doesn't make it true. For instance, it was widely speculated that there was (FOR A FACT) a Star Fox game coming to Wii circa 2010/2011. Never happened. There are always things that are widely/heavily speculated, and that's all many of them ever are, is talk.

Like I said, Nintendo isn't getting out of the home console business anytime soon. They've been in it longer than anyone else, they'll survive.

The market will decide if they want future consoles from Nintendo more than Nintendo themselves will. In Japan consoles are going extinct, in the US/Europe it doesn't look to me like Nintendo can hang with Sony/MS without a Wiimote type control interface miracle and I don't think they have any interest in competing directly.

With rising console game development costs the same 20-30 million Nintendo fans just aren't enough to make such a venture profitable indefinitely IMO.

There are other hardware pillars they could create though that are maybe not a traditional console per se, and also more toy-like devices they could perhaps get into. There was also that animation studio that they wanted to start about 9 years ago which I'm guessing got put on hold because of the success of the DS/Wii.

i think they are ok