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Forums - Politics Discussion - Civil war coming in Egypt?

Mr Khan said:

Inevitabilist assumption. It just might take a while, but if you study democratization, this unpleasant phase (tyranny of the masses) is one that can certainly swing into place, though much of that depends on the specifics of how you democratize (namely how the old regime is thrust from power and the framework under which a new government builds itself)

Although the whole thing can be fixed if they just have a series of votes leading to a new parliament and a new constitution, with the setup being that they would need more than just the Islamists to approve the constitution.

Well, using Iran as an example, it seems that if a secular dictatorship is followed by a religious one then the theocrats will also start to wear out their welcome within a generation or so as the children of the original revolutionaries aren't quite as enamored as their parents were. On the other hand, that is a long goddamned time to wait (and even the mullahs are still around), so it's not reasonable to expect secularists and liberals to cool their jets until then. They will either emigrate or revolt.



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badgenome said:
Mr Khan said:

Inevitabilist assumption. It just might take a while, but if you study democratization, this unpleasant phase (tyranny of the masses) is one that can certainly swing into place, though much of that depends on the specifics of how you democratize (namely how the old regime is thrust from power and the framework under which a new government builds itself)

Although the whole thing can be fixed if they just have a series of votes leading to a new parliament and a new constitution, with the setup being that they would need more than just the Islamists to approve the constitution.

Well, using Iran as an example, it seems that if a secular dictatorship is followed by a religious one then the theocrats will also start to wear out their welcome within a generation or so as the children of the original revolutionaries aren't quite as enamored as their parents were. On the other hand, that is a long goddamned time to wait (and even the mullahs are still around), so it's not reasonable to expect secularists and liberals to cool their jets until then. They will either emigrate or revolt.

Right, but it's certainly been more civilized than Iran so far, and I just assumed that Morsi would be more aware that he is answerable to the whole of the Egyptian people just as much as to his actual voters (in these circumstances, at least), and that the Brotherhood would know to tread lightly.

A coup will just negate the last two years, or launch a civil war that could go on for a long, long time...



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So things still haven't calmed down in Egypt huh? The last thing anyone wants is a war but sometimes that is the only option. Not that I'm saying that is the only option left to Egypt.



Who even supports Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood? It's seems most people are against them. The problem is that they are divided and so are stuck with people like him. The Arab spring has certainly left a mark of instability at least for now.



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the2real4mafol said:
Who even supports Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood? It's seems most people are against them. The problem is that they are divided and so are stuck with people like him. The Arab spring has certainly left a mark of instability at least for now.


Nah, he won a pretty convincing majority.  It's just his voters live where the TV cameras and journalists aren't.  Secularists cluttered in small urban cities, while the entire rest of the country is mostly religious.



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Nope, no civil war coming. It seems the army is trying to get a solution that would satisfy everyone, in which case there will be no civil war unless the Muslim Brotherhood decides to act against the army, which I doubt. The problem isn't Muslim Brotherhood having power, it's the way they use it and ignore everyone that's not supporting them.



The "coalition" governments have spent billions on the formation of tyranny in egypt. For the protection of israels theocracy. Did anyone think tyranny was defeated last spring? If so I have a bridge to sell you.

This could be one of the largest protests in human history and ppl on the internet be like "What gives them the right!?!"



snyps said:

The "coalition" governments have spent billions on the formation of tyranny in egypt. For the protection of israels theocracy. Did anyone think tyranny was defeated last spring? If so I have a bridge to sell you.

This could be one of the largest protests in human history and ppl on the internet be like "What gives them the right!?!"


Wait so... You think the US/UK etc governments spent a bunch of money take out Mubarak (who was pretty pro Israel quite honestly)to put the Muslim Broterhood in power to protect Israel?   The Muslim Brotherhood who's Palestinian Branch is Hamas.

 

That's like replacing a pitcher of water with a flamethrower in hopes to stop a fire.



Kasz216 said:
snyps said:

The "coalition" governments have spent billions on the formation of tyranny in egypt. For the protection of israels theocracy. Did anyone think tyranny was defeated last spring? If so I have a bridge to sell you.

This could be one of the largest protests in human history and ppl on the internet be like "What gives them the right!?!"


Wait so... You think the US/UK etc governments spent a bunch of money take out Mubarak (who was pretty pro Israel quite honestly)to put the Muslim Broterhood in power to protect Israel?   The Muslim Brotherhood who's Palestinian Branch is Hamas.

 

That's like replacing a pitcher of water with a flamethrower in hopes to stop a fire.



No. You missunderstood. The "coalition" governments have spent billions on the formation of tyranny in egypt since the 1950s. It didnt end last spring. Though it will end this year.



Egypt was clearly better off under former Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarack. The evil Muslim brotherhood has lead Egypt towards a Civil War within 12 months of rising to power.