Forums - Politics Discussion - Civil war coming in Egypt?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-02/how-did-the-u-s-lose-the-egyptian-people-.html

This is but one article on the matter, and the pertinent line is about the imminent threat of military coup. It is easy for these largely urban protestors to forget that Morsi was elected pretty fairly, and that most Egyptians support his vision. What this could lead to, depending on if the military goes through with it, is for some of the Brotherhood's more radical elements or more radical contacts (perhaps some of the folks who have recently been shooed out of Mali), to come in and fight for the average rural Muslim, or end up with an Algeria-esque situation (and a similarly bloody civil war).

I really did not think it would come to this. I presumed that both Morsi and the opposition would be more tactful (with Morsi focusing more on general democratic reforms than on a specific Islamist agenda, and with the secular democrats understanding that at least he was elected democratically, and that their time shall come as demographics switch in their favor).

It's really the threat of coup that's the shocker. I thought the military was secure enough that they didn't need to make any extralegal moves to preserve themselves.



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I saw the protests.

Ive never seen so many people protesting at once. Millions.

 

Mr Khan said:

that their time shall come as demographics switch in their favor

I can't say I'm at all surprised. Polls had showed for a long time that most Egyptians wanted more religion in their government, not less. Most people could agree that Mubarak had to go, but that was all they could agree on. The secularists never had a chance for anything other than living under the thumb of the Muslim Brotherhood. It's funny to look back and think about all the smarty pants who insisted at the time that the Brotherhood had no political aspirations.

But what did you mean here? Is there evidence of Egypt actually trending more secular demographically, or were you just making an inevitablist assumption that younger Egyptians will eventually want a more secular nation? My gut feeling is that demographics will favor the Islamists who treat women like little more than walking wombs over the liberals, but I don't really know.



The army should seize power regardless of elections. I don't believe in democracy in these countries to be honest.

In Algeria, the army cancelled the elections when the islamists won and it turned into a civil war until the army victory.

ugh getting sick of all this religion bullshit

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DamnTastic said:
ugh getting sick of all this religion bullshit

It's not religion BS most of the intervinients are muslims, the problem is just the power that they don't know how to wield it.



badgenome said:
Mr Khan said:

that their time shall come as demographics switch in their favor

I can't say I'm at all surprised. Polls had showed for a long time that most Egyptians wanted more religion in their government, not less. Most people could agree that Mubarak had to go, but that was all they could agree on. The secularists never had a chance for anything other than living under the thumb of the Muslim Brotherhood. It's funny to look back and think about all the smarty pants who insisted at the time that the Brotherhood had no political aspirations.

But what did you mean here? Is there evidence of Egypt actually trending more secular demographically, or were you just making an inevitablist assumption that younger Egyptians will eventually want a more secular nation? My gut feeling is that demographics will favor the Islamists who treat women like little more than walking wombs over the liberals, but I don't really know.

Inevitabilist assumption. It just might take a while, but if you study democratization, this unpleasant phase (tyranny of the masses) is one that can certainly swing into place, though much of that depends on the specifics of how you democratize (namely how the old regime is thrust from power and the framework under which a new government builds itself)

Although the whole thing can be fixed if they just have a series of votes leading to a new parliament and a new constitution, with the setup being that they would need more than just the Islamists to approve the constitution.



Thanks for making voice acting an a-list pastime.

Slowly rebuild social life go!

Goatseye said:
DamnTastic said:
ugh getting sick of all this religion bullshit

It's not religion BS most of the intervinients are muslims, the problem is just the power that they don't know how to wield it.

if you go to the basic of the protests you will see it's religion based



DamnTastic said:
Goatseye said:
 

It's not religion BS most of the intervinients are muslims, the problem is just the power that they don't know how to wield it.

if you go to the basic of the protests you will see it's religion based

I think they blurred their interest(political actors) lines so much that it's very confusing to distinguish their intention.

The Muslim Brotherhood has a foothold all around middle-east and their intention is to disrupt Israel presence and politic intentions as much as they can. If they control Egypt and Syria, Israel will be in a bad predicament as MB is said to be bigger and more influential than Al Qaeda.



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Goatseye said:
DamnTastic said:
Goatseye said:
 

It's not religion BS most of the intervinients are muslims, the problem is just the power that they don't know how to wield it.

if you go to the basic of the protests you will see it's religion based

I think they blurred their interest(political actors) lines so much that it's very confusing to distinguish their intention.

The Muslim Brotherhood has a foothold all around middle-east and their intention is to disrupt Israel presence and politic intentions as much as they can. If they control Egypt and Syria, Israel will be in a bad predicament as MB is said to be bigger and more influential than Al Qaeda.

Well, one thing is sure. It will be interesting and frustrating to watch where this is going.