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Forums - Politics Discussion - The Syrian Civil War Update Thread

Slimebeast on 09 June 2013
Mr Khan said:

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/86176-report-hizbullah-to-suspend-syria-operations-after-taking-zabadani

Excerpt:

Hizbullah will suspend its military operations in Syria after securing the Damascus suburb of Zabadani “from which rockets are being fired on Shiite villages in Baalbek and Hermel,” the Central News Agency reported on Saturday.

“After the operations officially ended in Qusayr, Hizbullah is about to finish the Zabadani battle, from which rockets are still being fired on Baalbek and Sarein,” the agency quoted prominent high-ranking sources close to Hizbullah as saying.

Zabadani is a city in the Damascus governorate, close to the border with Lebanon's Bekaa Valley.

“The party's leadership has informed the allies and friends that the mission of protecting the Lebanese in Syria and towns inside Lebanon from any attack is almost accomplished,” the sources said.

“It is not in the party's interest to engage in a war in Syria's heart (against rebels) as the Syrian army is capable of winning it,” the sources added.

On a related note: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/06/201368155710139389.html

Red cross evacuates some injured Syrians and Lebanese to hospitals in Lebanon after the battle of Qusayr. They weren't allowed to evacuate the wounded for days after the fighting and many died from blood loss and infection.

I read somewhere that many Hezbollah fighters were seen in fights in or around Aleppo soon after the glorious Qusayr victory. Aleppo is in the opposite direction of Damascus.



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KungKras on 09 June 2013

Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)



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Mr Khan on 09 June 2013
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)



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Slimebeast on 09 June 2013
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

But right now it is like Lebanon in its third year of civil war.

It's not purely sectarian and the conflict didn't start sectarian, but neither was the case in Lebanon. But it's best described as mainly a sectarian civil war now.



Soleron on 09 June 2013

Yep. There's no outright winning possible.



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Moonhero on 09 June 2013
kowenicki said:
3 threads on syria in the last hour

cant all this go in one thread?


To add to this, can all of the Xbox One hate/love all be put into one thread each?



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KungKras on 09 June 2013
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

I see, the impression I'm getting is that it's all a real mess and not at all like Libya.

Is it just the Sunnis and Shiites that want to kill each other or are there more groups of people involved?



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Mr Khan on 09 June 2013
KungKras said:
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

I see, the impression I'm getting is that it's all a real mess and not at all like Libya.

Is it just the Sunnis and Shiites that want to kill each other or are there more groups of people involved?

Sunni, Shi'a, Alawites, and Christians, though i would say that the bigger trouble with Syria is that the geography of the various groups is not as neatly laid out as in Libya (which was clearly Rebels East, Government West) or even Iraq, with Kurds North, Sunnis West, Shia South. In Syria it's just all kind of there.



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Slimebeast on 09 June 2013
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

I see, the impression I'm getting is that it's all a real mess and not at all like Libya.

Is it just the Sunnis and Shiites that want to kill each other or are there more groups of people involved?

Sunni, Shi'a, Alawites, and Christians, though i would say that the bigger trouble with Syria is that the geography of the various groups is not as neatly laid out as in Libya (which was clearly Rebels East, Government West) or even Iraq, with Kurds North, Sunnis West, Shia South. In Syria it's just all kind of there.

Yes, but populations on ethnic grounds can adapt. The reality on the ground in this civil war is quite stable with the fronts being static (except for the occasional border check-point and the recent Qusayr battle) since over one year - Sunni rebels in the north and middle, Kurds in the northeast and pro-government loyals in the south which just got connected through a corridor to the coastal Alawite stronghold. A de-facto split of Syria along sectarian lines.

My dream scenario is a Syria split in three parts:

1. North-east region would become a kurdish autonomy and the natural groundworks for a future kurdish sovereign state together with kurdish parts of Iraq and possibly Turkey

2. Middle and north-west would form a semi-theocratic Sunni muslim state similar to what we see in Libya and Egypt, with Aleppo as capital.

3. The west coast and southernmost part including Damascus forming a secural state constituting of Alawites + the Christian minority population + former government shills regardless of religion.

That would be exciting.



KungKras on 09 June 2013
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Mr Khan said:
KungKras said:
Does anyone have a good idea about what's going to happen when one side wins? (scenarios for both sides)

Government wins: Syria becomes more of a pariah state (on the level of Iran or North Korea), or, in a desire not to be such a pariah, Syria administers slow reforms in the fashion of Myanmar (reforms, but on the old regime's terms)

Rebels win: Total sectarian warfare unless NATO intervenes. You'd either get Lebanon and 15 years of civil war, or NATO intervention which would turn the place into Iraq (democratic and stable enough to get by, but still with regular sectarian violence)

I see, the impression I'm getting is that it's all a real mess and not at all like Libya.

Is it just the Sunnis and Shiites that want to kill each other or are there more groups of people involved?

Sunni, Shi'a, Alawites, and Christians, though i would say that the bigger trouble with Syria is that the geography of the various groups is not as neatly laid out as in Libya (which was clearly Rebels East, Government West) or even Iraq, with Kurds North, Sunnis West, Shia South. In Syria it's just all kind of there.

I see.

I've never quite gotten why they all want to kill each other so much in those areas. The kurds wanting their own land I get, but the rest....



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