I somewhat agree. However, you mentioned games, but unless you are a big fan of MS first party games, there's no need for you to buy a Xbone because all the other games will be available for the PS4 and PC (and who knows maybe some games will come to the Wii U). If you have the option to play those games without any of this DRM and "no used games" things, then gamers will go to that option that doesn't have this pay-walls. 

If what I said above does become true, that means the majority of the Xbone owners will be the MS fanbase. And in all honesty, I think the Xbone has two options:

1) It will become the next GC by only gathering, in this case, the fans of Halo, Forza, etc.
2) Or it could become the next Wii, big with "casuals", but not that hot with the "hardcore" gamers.

Well, wait. Let's wait for E3 to see those 15 exclusive games.

Well i have news for you, DRM has stopped me of buying the Xbox One.

would if it is 500 bucks?

Maybe, but unless they have THE biggest E3 ever (and I'm talking FF Versus XIII exclusive level of big) then the fanbase will remain the same. 

New first party IPs usually don't gather any new customers, the people that play a new IP from "x" first party company are the current fanbase. So, unless the exclusive games come from extremely big franchises (FF, GTA, CoD, Mass Effect, etc) then nothing that I said above will change.

"The DRM and used games issues, while bad and anti-consumer and all that, are the pet issues of a very small group."

If that were true (which I strongly disagree), then I don't want to be a part of this Industry (as a consumer/gamer) anymore cause it seems to me that people are willing to bend over and take it. All for the sake of getting great deals on software in exchange for (as a consumer) their right of ownership. I don't wan't to give up that right so I can save 10s-100s of dollars which BTW will just benefit more to the publisher than to the consumer.

Yes, if it causes the price of games to go up.

But just the existence of the negative news itself won't cause it.

You're on a video games sales forum. This is the most core and informed segment of the market.

One would believe that... certainly, one would believe that my friend...

I think you are underestimating the power of the internet and social media. Negative news spreads fast.