As long as Microsoft has money to market their console properly, I see no reason in why it wouldn't break the "curse." However, nothing is set in stone. The XB Infinity might totally blow up in their face.

Genesis was the 3rd, SG-1000 then Master System came before it

If the Infinity is beloved as the N64 and PS3, there should be no issue.

Nintendo broke the rule that "once you leave the top you cant go back" with the Wii, so I dont believe in the gaming curses. the reason the 3rd curse is in existence is because the 3rd console is usually when people get gritty or arrogant. Lets look at a example

Atari Pong: Pong and all its versions was a smashing hit because for its time, it actually had structure and you didn't have to go the arcade to go play it. It was revolutionary, though simplistic.

Atari 2600: Also revolutionary, first home console to be extremly popular and well made while being able to have different cartridges(or games) to play on! So many games to choose from, even though it had problems with 3rd parties and rushed games, it was a revolutionary system as well. Plus, it introduced the joystick.

Atari 5200: Atari gets cocky, they see the successes of their past two ideas, they think they can just do what they want. It was expensive, the controller was complicated, and it had no backwards compatibility. It may have been powerful but it failed commercially because of their ignorance of not adding things the customers wanted. I can understand the controller problem, but making it too expensive and not backwards compatible was just trying to save money and thinking the customer will buy it anyway.

if microsoft doesnt get cocky they will be fine

The Madden curse is dead Calvin Johnson had one of the best seasons ever by a wide receiver last season.  On top of that it can't affect anyone this year since Barry Sanders retired 15 years ago.

Well, all eyes will be on them in a few week. They could really blow it out of the water, so to speak, or they could stumble. It's possible, but I doubt they will stumble.

I try to imagine a world with out being able to stream through their Silverlight. I don't like it as much as the one I have now.

Probably. Or maybe not. Who knows.

I don't think marketing does too much for a product if it doesn't interest people. Microsoft has spent hundreds of millions marketing their Windows Phones and those have yet to catch on. I'm know only two people that own one, and I'm one of them!

well if Microsoft get too cocky, they'll end up like Sony did back in 2006.

Well, it has to be good marketing for it to work.