150k FW would be over 200k less than what Fates launched at. Did you mean to say 250k? That would be at least.... well, not completely awful.
Like I said on my other comment. We will see a decline of Franchises that were on the 3DS (Pokemon, AC, FE) in terms of Sales in Japan. It will be like this until we get that cheaper version of Switch which will most likely increase software sales across the board.
Like in terms of Facts. We have Pokemon Lets Go which saw a decline in Japan when compared to XY, SM. But it still managed to get 10mil+WW. Which means WW sales are another factor for these franchises success.
Pocky Lover Boy!