Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!
And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.
It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.
Trust me I'd be happy to be wrong I just think expectations are a bit too high. 800k in December would be huge as you still have the holidays to sell like crazy. For example, NSMB Wii did 943k FW (according to VGC) and ended up selling 2.7m for that month alone. Smash has a shot at 2 million for the month and that should not be undestimated, for comparison sales LTD:
Smash 3DS: 2.5 m
Smash 64: 1.97m
Smash Switch has a shot at the top of that list
Yeah the history for the series and the fact that we have a whole holiday season during which sales are going to be pretty big every week is the main reason why I think you might be right. I think Ultimate will probably end up at or near the top when all is said and done, but the fact that 2 million FW would instantly put it above Smash 64 is what makes me feel like it just can't happen. I still think 1.2 or even 1.5 million could totally happen though, and pass Brawl sometime next year, and do 3 or 4 million lifetime. Mostly I base that on Smash feeling like it's just become a much bigger deal than it used to be, and on Nintendo's statements that it's the most preordered Smash ever, though obviously we don't know how much higher it is or if that will translate to huge lifetime sales or if it's also highest in Japan specifically. Also keep in mind that digital is a factor now so 3DS is actually probably above Brawl and closer to 3 million now, so if Ultimate beats 3DS, that means that, with digital, it would end up above 3 million and headed towards 4. Now it could certainly still do that while starting from 800k, and 800k would still be impressive, and 2 million for the month would also be possible starting from there, but it's fun to think about what could happen, and how huge numbers could actually make sense. If it does end up being 800k though, I won't actually be disappointed, because it's still a good number. I'm just having fun speculating.