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COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

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  Days SSB Ultimate SSB 3DS SSB Wii U SSB 4 all
21 147 53 15 17 32
20 140 110 15 19 34
19 133 137 20 20 40
18 126 155 21 21 42
17 119 181 21 21 42
16 112 208 23 22 45
15 105 226 28 23 51
14 98 238 30 25 55
13 91 256 45 26 71
12 84 272 86 27 113
11 77 294 143 25 168
10 70 322 179 25 204
9 63 340 216 26 242
8 56 352 264 31 295
7 49 367 307 31 338
6 42 376 359 49 408
5 35 394 419 76 495
4 28 451 509 102 611
3 21 527 584 117 701
2 14 641 650 155 805
1 7 752 798 211 1009
  6 783 854 229 1083
  5 818 909 230 1139
  4 838 940 234 1174
  3 870 982 242 1224
  2 906 1018 245 1263
  1 935 1066 251 1317
Launch Week     1090 278 1368


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HylianSwordsman said:
Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!

And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.

It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.

Trust me I'd be happy to be wrong   I just think expectations are a bit too high. 800k in December would be huge as you still have the holidays to sell like crazy. For example, NSMB Wii did 943k FW (according to VGC) and ended up selling 2.7m for that month alone. Smash has a shot at 2 million for the month and that should not be undestimated, for comparison sales LTD:

Brawl: 2.67m

Smash 3DS: 2.5 m

Smash 64: 1.97m

Mele: 1.39m

 

Smash Switch has a shot at the top of that list



YNWA

kopstudent89 said:
HylianSwordsman said:
Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!

And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.

It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.

Trust me I'd be happy to be wrong   I just think expectations are a bit too high. 800k in December would be huge as you still have the holidays to sell like crazy. For example, NSMB Wii did 943k FW (according to VGC) and ended up selling 2.7m for that month alone. Smash has a shot at 2 million for the month and that should not be undestimated, for comparison sales LTD:

Brawl: 2.67m

Smash 3DS: 2.5 m

Smash 64: 1.97m

Mele: 1.39m

 

Smash Switch has a shot at the top of that list

Yeah the history for the series and the fact that we have a whole holiday season during which sales are going to be pretty big every week is the main reason why I think you might be right. I think Ultimate will probably end up at or near the top when all is said and done, but the fact that 2 million FW would instantly put it above Smash 64 is what makes me feel like it just can't happen. I still think 1.2 or even 1.5 million could totally happen though, and pass Brawl sometime next year, and do 3 or 4 million lifetime. Mostly I base that on Smash feeling like it's just become a much bigger deal than it used to be, and on Nintendo's statements that it's the most preordered Smash ever, though obviously we don't know how much higher it is or if that will translate to huge lifetime sales or if it's also highest in Japan specifically. Also keep in mind that digital is a factor now so 3DS is actually probably above Brawl and closer to 3 million now, so if Ultimate beats 3DS, that means that, with digital, it would end up above 3 million and headed towards 4. Now it could certainly still do that while starting from 800k, and 800k would still be impressive, and 2 million for the month would also be possible starting from there, but it's fun to think about what could happen, and how huge numbers could actually make sense. If it does end up being 800k though, I won't actually be disappointed, because it's still a good number. I'm just having fun speculating.



 



Out with one Switch title, in with another. Didn't expect that actually. Was expecting to see an all blue chart in 2 weeks, looks like now it won't be.

So, is the next game to get over 500 points going to be Pokemon? Or is anything coming sooner? Animal Crossing maybe? I don't think Kingdom Hearts is going to make it that far.

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No total blue charts ... let's welcome a port instead :P

Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Meanwhile in Smash Bros ...

KH3 RULES THE CHARTS AT #1! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Great week for GE3 and JE! WOO!!!!!!!!!!

KH3 the next game to look towards to!

Pocky Lover Boy! 

KH3 getting closer and closer to 200 pts.
Finally some points for Vesperia.

部屋に100人がいたとして、99人があなたはダメというのに1人が認めてくれることがあったとする。

by L. GaGa

Days NSMBU Wii U NSMBU Switch
35 47 11
34 48  
33 48  
32 48  
31 48  
30 48  
29 51  
28 59  
27 64  
26 66  
25 68  
24 70  
23 74  
22 80  
21 85  
20 91  
19 95  
18 100  
17 107  
16 115  
15 120  
14 125  
13 134  
12 141  
11 143  
10 149  
9 156  
8 160  
7 167  
6 175  
5 177  
4 185  
3 187  
2 193  
1 200  

I did not expect that NSMBU would appear as soon as Smash left. 

This will be an uphill battle for the Switch version that it could win.