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COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

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Strong day for God Eater, Judge Eyes and Kingdom Hearts!

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I wanna Smash to finish above Splatoon 2.

Cmon get me that 36 points today! :D

Actual prediction of the year: Super Smash Bros Ultimate will sell in 12 million

 



thought i would never see the normal version of resident evil and wish smash good first week

Smashing! Go Go DQB2 for Switch!!

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Smash ends only 6 points behind Splatoon 2.
Looked like much more at some point but the last two weeks were very strong for Smash.

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Amazon December 2018 thread

Noooooooooooooooooo!

Well will it beat ssb3ds fw points? Find out soon

Fantastic end for Smash # COMG!

Pocky Lover Boy! 

Smash Ultimate first week sales:

1:1000 ratio = 935.000
1:1100 ratio = 1.028.500
1:1200 ratio = 1.122.000
1:1300 ratio = 1.215.500
1:1400 ratio = 1.309.000
1:1500 ratio = 1.402.500
1:1600 ratio = 1.496.000
1:1700 ratio = 1.589.500
1:1800 ratio = 1.683.000
1:1900 ratio = 1.776.500
1:2000 ratio = 1.870.000

Actual prediction of the year: Super Smash Bros Ultimate will sell in 12 million

Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!

And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.

It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.