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COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

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Holy shit! 900 points! And with 1 more day to go! The HYPE IS REAL!

Pocky Lover Boy! 

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51p tomorrow........ Pls :(

Smash going to get 161 points tomorrow to finish above Smash 3DS.

Farsala said: 
Smash going to get 161 points tomorrow to finish above Smash 3DS.

Your jk of course but i think weekly points will surpass 3ds!



Come on Smash! Don't choke on the last day! One more day like this and you're the new record!

I'm not saying I think Smash is guaranteed to get 2 million FW, but rather that the data we have shows a trend towards higher Switch ratios closer to 1:2000 before digital, and that this would suggest that 2 million is possible, and that Smash would have to actually be a slight outlier to even get as low as 1.5 million. Maybe major games get lower? But Odyssey got 1:2232. Maybe only casual games get higher? Yet Minecraft was 1:744 and 1-2-Switch was 1:585. Honestly there's not much of a pattern to what games get higher or lower, aside from that most of the under 1:1000 games were launch games, and the last game to only get 1:1000 was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (with 1:1075), which was a couple months after launch. Since then the only game under 1:1500 was Minecraft and Splatoon 2's 1:689, but Splatoon 2 was also pretty early, first 4 months. Assuming Smash isn't some crazy low outlier, it'll probably get somewhere between 1:1500 (as Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did with 1:1504) and 1:2500 (as Super Mario Party did with 1:2460). If it super choked and got no points tomorrow, that would mean it gets somewhere between 1.35 million and 2.25 million. If it has a kickass last day and gets to 950 points, that becomes a range of 1.425 million and 2.375 million. So lets go ahead and say that 1.35-2.375 is the expected range barring a major anomaly. Of course, this is based on Media Create, which doesn't track digital, and if digital is approximately 15% of total sales, which wouldn't be too outlandishly high or low for a Nintendo game, that would put the total sales at 1.5 million to 2.8 million (1.35 is about 85% of 1.5, 2.375 about 85% of 2.8). Right in the middle of that with a 1:2000 ratio would put physical+digital sales at 2.1 million for 900 points and 2.235 million for 950 points. So if the outcome is slightly lower than halfway on the expected range it's still 2 million FW physical+digital.

That said 2 million FW still just sounds crazy high for a game in Japan, even a Switch blockbuster, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's only 1.5 million, nor would I be surprised if Media Create shows 1.35 million since it only shows physical. The main point of all this math is that it would take a major outlier for Smash FW in Japan to be below a million FW. Not even that is all that crazy though, as there have been quite a few outliers, but it's been a while since we had one and the odds are in Smash's favor to Smash everyone's expectations.

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tbone51 said:
51p tomorrow........ Pls :(

52



nice day with points for many games, smash rocking in the finish line

  Days SSB Ultimate SSB 3DS SSB Wii U SSB 4 all
21 147 53 15 17 32
20 140 110 15 19 34
19 133 137 20 20 40
18 126 155 21 21 42
17 119 181 21 21 42
16 112 208 23 22 45
15 105 226 28 23 51
14 98 238 30 25 55
13 91 256 45 26 71
12 84 272 86 27 113
11 77 294 143 25 168
10 70 322 179 25 204
9 63 340 216 26 242
8 56 352 264 31 295
7 49 367 307 31 338
6 42 376 359 49 408
5 35 394 419 76 495
4 28 451 509 102 611
3 21 527 584 117 701
2 14 641 650 155 805
1 7 752 798 211 1009
  6 783 854 229 1083
  5 818 909 230 1139
  4 838 940 234 1174
  3 870 982 242 1224
  2 906 1018 245 1263
  1   1066 251 1317
Launch Week     1090 278 1368


XD84 said:
  Days SSB Ultimate SSB 3DS SSB Wii U SSB 4 all
21 147 53 15 17 32
20 140 110 15 19 34
19 133 137 20 20 40
18 126 155 21 21 42
17 119 181 21 21 42
16 112 208 23 22 45
15 105 226 28 23 51
14 98 238 30 25 55
13 91 256 45 26 71
12 84 272 86 27 113
11 77 294 143 25 168
10 70 322 179 25 204
9 63 340 216 26 242
8 56 352 264 31 295
7 49 367 307 31 338
6 42 376 359 49 408
5 35 394 419 76 495
4 28 451 509 102 611
3 21 527 584 117 701
2 14 641 650 155 805
1 7 752 798 211 1009
  6 783 854 229 1083
  5 818 909 230 1139
  4 838 940 234 1174
  3 870 982 242 1224
  2 906 1018 245 1263
  1   1066 251 1317
Launch Week     1090 278 1368

Thanks again for the good work



HylianSwordsman said:
Come on Smash! Don't choke on the last day! One more day like this and you're the new record!

I'm not saying I think Smash is guaranteed to get 2 million FW, but rather that the data we have shows a trend towards higher Switch ratios closer to 1:2000 before digital, and that this would suggest that 2 million is possible, and that Smash would have to actually be a slight outlier to even get as low as 1.5 million. Maybe major games get lower? But Odyssey got 1:2232. Maybe only casual games get higher? Yet Minecraft was 1:744 and 1-2-Switch was 1:585. Honestly there's not much of a pattern to what games get higher or lower, aside from that most of the under 1:1000 games were launch games, and the last game to only get 1:1000 was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (with 1:1075), which was a couple months after launch. Since then the only game under 1:1500 was Minecraft and Splatoon 2's 1:689, but Splatoon 2 was also pretty early, first 4 months. Assuming Smash isn't some crazy low outlier, it'll probably get somewhere between 1:1500 (as Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did with 1:1504) and 1:2500 (as Super Mario Party did with 1:2460). If it super choked and got no points tomorrow, that would mean it gets somewhere between 1.35 million and 2.25 million. If it has a kickass last day and gets to 950 points, that becomes a range of 1.425 million and 2.375 million. So lets go ahead and say that 1.35-2.375 is the expected range barring a major anomaly. Of course, this is based on Media Create, which doesn't track digital, and if digital is approximately 15% of total sales, which wouldn't be too outlandishly high or low for a Nintendo game, that would put the total sales at 1.5 million to 2.8 million (1.35 is about 85% of 1.5, 2.375 about 85% of 2.8). Right in the middle of that with a 1:2000 ratio would put physical+digital sales at 2.1 million for 900 points and 2.235 million for 950 points. So if the outcome is slightly lower than halfway on the expected range it's still 2 million FW physical+digital.

That said 2 million FW still just sounds crazy high for a game in Japan, even a Switch blockbuster, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's only 1.5 million, nor would I be surprised if Media Create shows 1.35 million since it only shows physical. The main point of all this math is that it would take a major outlier for Smash FW in Japan to be below a million FW. Not even that is all that crazy though, as there have been quite a few outliers, but it's been a while since we had one and the odds are in Smash's favor to Smash everyone's expectations.

Ratios are not always a guaranteed thing. They probably give you a range of possible outcomes, in this case anything from 700k-1.2m is possible. 

That said looking at how Smash has historically performed in Japan, I think 800k is probably a good estimation. I hope it does above 1m, but it's never happened even on the Wii and 3DS which both did below 1m. The 1.5m some of y'all are predicting is wild especially on this installbase, and the 2 million some people are throwing around is crazy, and will undermine actual First week sales. Trust even 800k is a huge first week for Smash



YNWA