"I'd expect all console launches to be like the Wii U's. Because they always are."
It's hard to argue with that.
I think Microsoft is going to pull a Nintendo (and Kinect) and market the hardware, at least initially. They're going to go in huge with concept videos and advertisements that show families smiling and jumping more than actual gaming content. And it could work. Worked fantastic with the Wii and Kinect. In that sense, they might not even need that many exclusive games beyond Kinect 2.0 titles and some Kinect-ish multi-media functionality. The average consumer is pretty easy to manipulate. Just show them how awesome something could POTENTIALLY be.
There is also the possibility that Microsoft is doing an amazing job keeping secrets. There might be only a few people who know the whole picture. That kind of secrecy can be tough to work around but Microsoft is kind of known for that, anyway. The referenced sources might be in the dark without even knowing they're in the dark. We'll just have to wait and see.
The only trouble Microsoft might have is if Sony has a solid line-up of exclusives in the PS4 launch window. That looks to be the case, though we once said the same thing about the Wii U. There might be delays that could take away some of that advantage.
It's just way, way too early to think that we know how anything is going to work out.