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Forums - Sales Discussion - So...Is Any HW Going to Top 4m Units in the US in 2013?

Here is what we have roughly (from NPD) for 2012 vs. 2013 in January to March, adjusting for the five week January in 2013 vs. the four week January in 2012.

                    13 weeks                14 weeks

                  Jan - Mar 12'        Jan - Mar 13'

X360          1.07m                        844k                  Down to 60k from 82k per week in Q1 2012

PS3            885k                            662k                  Down to 47k frm 68k per week in Q1 2012

Wii            555k                             306k                 Down to 22k from  43k per week in Q1 2012

Wii U                                              190k                  14k per week, up from 0 in Q1 2012

DS             317k                             261k                 Down to 19k from 24k per week in Q1 2012

3DS          670k                             550k                 Down to 39k from 52k per week in Q1 2012

Vita          445k                              105k               Down to 8k per week from 89k per week in Q1 2012 (five week launch)

PSP            56k                                27k                Down to 2k per week from 4k per week in Q1 2012

 

X360 sold 5.36m in the US in 2012 - but is down 1/4 from last year to date. I think it ends up in 3.5m - 4.0m range - the X720 / PS4 launches are going to hurt over the holidays. PS3 sold 3.26m in 2012, it is down 30% on a weekly basis to date - so I think 2.0-2.5m is likely - again PS4 / X720 launches are going to hurt over the holidays. 3DS sold 3.7m in 2012 and is currently trending down by a quarter as well - so unlikely to top 4m. Wii U will probably sell 2-3m in 2013. Vita, Wii, PSP won't touch 4m...so to me, this looks like the first time in over a decade when at least one platform won't top 4m in the US. These are the 4m+ platfoms in prior years

2012 (X360)

2011 (X360, Wii, PS3, 3DS)

2010 (DS, Wii, X360, PS3)

2009 (DS, Wii, X360, PS3)

2008 (Wii, DS, X360)

2007 (DS, Wii, X360)

2006 (DS, PS2)

2005 (PS2, GBA)

2004 (GBA, PS2, Xbox)

2003 (GBA, PS2)

2002 (PS2, GBA)

2001 (PS2, GBA)

2000 (nothing - NPD never tracked GB / GBC though)

1999 (PS1, maybe GB)

1998 (PS1, N64, maybe GB)

1997 (PS1, N64, maybe GB)

1996 (maybe GB)

1995 (maybe GB)

1994 (maybe GB)

1993 (SNES, maybe GB)

1992 (SNES, GEN, maybe GB)

1991 (maybe GB)

1987-1990 (NES)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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I could see the XB 360 getting to 4 Million units this year, again. The 3DS is a touchy one, but I think it also has a chance. Seeing as how it always racks up major sales during the Holiday season, it shouldn't be too hard.

And hey, it's The Source!



X360 and maybe the 3DS

We need to see if the NeXbox has an effect on X360 sales too.




       

Maybe 360.



While I think you have WiiU a little low... Idk. X360 has best chance but it will depend on the price cut it gets towards the end of the year. Even that likely won't push it there as facts are the market is saturated and next-gen is going to be 100% in full swing. X360 will need to be $99 and $149 for the two SKU variations for it to hit that.



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btw, your weekly figures are skewed as all of them will be jumped up a bit once you include the rampant sales of the holidays.



3DS. Pokémon, bro.



X360 and 3DS maybe depending on price, deals amd software.



I really don't see any of the existing machines, with the possible exception of Wii U if they do a price cut in October, jumping up much late in the year. PS3 & X360 each had their peaks in 2011 if you go by calendar year in the US market, there is little reason to believe they won't be at half their peak this year going by the drop last year, and the drops so far this year. 

Based on recent trends, this is how I visualize 2013 ending up at year end when all the data has arrived:

I think 2012 is about as weak as the US console market can be, unless demand for consoles has totally collapsed - we'll have to see. The US isn't Europe, we added 15 or 20 million people from 2006 to 2012, and our unemployment only jumped from 5% to 8% in that time, so in theory the US is a much bigger market than in 2006, especially if most people are willing to upgrade to the new machines. Everybody hope there has been no collapse in console demand - from 2014 onwards there are only going to be another 4-8m X360s / PS3s / Wiis sold in the US.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I'm not sure about 3DS as PS4 launches and 720 on the horizon, but 3DS has a really good chance.



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)