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When will ps3 outship the xbox360?

Forums - Sales Discussion - When will ps3 outship the xbox360?

finalrpgfantasy said:
I read here on vgchartz a couple of months ago(don't remember when) that the ps3 has already outshipped the 360.


no no, that was the DS outshipping the ps2 for the 4th time again..



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kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
It has already outshipped the X360 if I remember correctly. It just hasn't sold through as many from the retailer side of things.


are we sure?  what was the shippment differential?  MS shipped 1.3M this quarter so how many does sony have to ship to pull ahead?  i was thinking sony was behind by just under a million and i don't see sony shipping 2.3M this quarter.

I'm not sure to be honest but i thought Sony was at 77m shipped and MSFT was at 76m shipped.  I really am not sure. 

no no, "that guy" (forget who made the quote) said it sort of off the cuff mid quarter.  so MS was at 76 and sony was at whatever it was at the previous quarter plus part of a quarter plus whatever rounding went into that guy's head.  BUT... considering how long sony has been combinding ps2 with ps3 it was sort of a big deal because we don't really,. "know".  gaf has their estimates and from what i remember their best guess was ps3 was behind by ~0.9M at the end of last quarter.

Thing is, for all of october last year, ps2 had sold a measly 10k units give or take a few thousand, and is currently discontinued as of January 1. That would seem to imply that the console sales were extremely low.

If they were at .9 behind at dec 31, then that would mean, without doubt, that ps3 was sitting at 75.1m as opposed to 76m 360s. However, In february, they had sold 77m. That would be 2 million sold in Jan-Feb, which would be a little ridiculous unless their stock ww had hit absolute nil.

sales between tretton's comment and now, for ps3, are 1.24m, meaning between jan1 and his comment, they sold to customers, 1.2m consoles. 2m shipped would put 800k units on shelves on top of what other stock was available. as of Dec 31, we have a sold through total of 71.8m, meaning there was a shocking 3 million on shelves, vs 2.5m 360s

Jan-Mar quarter, 360 sold through is 1.6m, so minus shipped, gives us an indent of .3 into the 2.5m in stock, bringing the total to 2.2m which is also extremely high.

So basically, we have

360 at 2.2m stock as for quarter end, figuring correct shipment figures given by MS.
ps3 at 3.3m ps3's on shelves as of jan 1, and then further shipping another 2m between jan and february, of which 1.2m have been sold, bringing the total on shelves as of feb 20, to 4.1m

Yeah something just not adding up here. Maybe it's my math? Personally, I think the shipments were already ahead, which would cut the ps3 number down to at least 3.2, and with 1.24m in sales between feb 20 and march 30, brings it down to 2m.

 

In summary, I'd say both were even around January, probably slightly beating it as of February.

MS as of march 31 sold 77.2m.
Tretton said, that as of feb 20, ps3 was at 77m

I'm going to venture and say ps3 has already outshipped and very likely much closer to outsold (to customers) than we currently think.



kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
It has already outshipped the X360 if I remember correctly. It just hasn't sold through as many from the retailer side of things.


are we sure?  what was the shippment differential?  MS shipped 1.3M this quarter so how many does sony have to ship to pull ahead?  i was thinking sony was behind by just under a million and i don't see sony shipping 2.3M this quarter.

I'm not sure to be honest but i thought Sony was at 77m shipped and MSFT was at 76m shipped.  I really am not sure. 

no no, "that guy" (forget who made the quote) said it sort of off the cuff mid quarter.  so MS was at 76 and sony was at whatever it was at the previous quarter plus part of a quarter plus whatever rounding went into that guy's head.  BUT... considering how long sony has been combinding ps2 with ps3 it was sort of a big deal because we don't really,. "know".  gaf has their estimates and from what i remember their best guess was ps3 was behind by ~0.9M at the end of last quarter.

..or something.  there is a lot of FUD in ps3's numbers.

I forgot about them combining the PS2 and PS3 numbers.  It is hard to say who has shipped more than who then.  They have both been doing great recently though for as old as they are so that is a plus :)



JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
It has already outshipped the X360 if I remember correctly. It just hasn't sold through as many from the retailer side of things.


are we sure?  what was the shippment differential?  MS shipped 1.3M this quarter so how many does sony have to ship to pull ahead?  i was thinking sony was behind by just under a million and i don't see sony shipping 2.3M this quarter.

I'm not sure to be honest but i thought Sony was at 77m shipped and MSFT was at 76m shipped.  I really am not sure. 

no no, "that guy" (forget who made the quote) said it sort of off the cuff mid quarter.  so MS was at 76 and sony was at whatever it was at the previous quarter plus part of a quarter plus whatever rounding went into that guy's head.  BUT... considering how long sony has been combinding ps2 with ps3 it was sort of a big deal because we don't really,. "know".  gaf has their estimates and from what i remember their best guess was ps3 was behind by ~0.9M at the end of last quarter.

..or something.  there is a lot of FUD in ps3's numbers.

I forgot about them combining the PS2 and PS3 numbers.  It is hard to say who has shipped more than who then.  They have both been doing great recently though for as old as they are so that is a plus :)

This is what troubles me though.

3DS 2,862,179 (-80%) 30,431,365
PS3 2,440,344 (-78%) 74,225,278
X360 1,663,117 (-83%) 75,238,563
PSV 685,201 (-80%) 4,621,308
WiiU 682,148 (-70%) 2,938,657
Wii 652,283 (-87%) 99,331,420
PSP 443,443 (-85%) 76,222,331
DS 402,544 (-88%) 153,941,393

We have GFK saying ps3 is down 14% and 360 down 16%.
We have NPD saying ~22% each.

Those two territories are the biggest ones, so why do our numbers for 2012 up to this point in time read 3.2m? That's a full 35% drop. Both consoles are likely undertracked already by a good 250k+ which should put both shipment numbers at around 1.9m.

The only problem is that traditionally, as of march, 360 has always had 1.3m on shelves, and ps3 had ~500k.

I think both consoles are definitely undertracked by a large margin.... Possibly even close to 1m undertracked.

Sony said that as of Nov 4, 2012, they had shipped 70m. But they sold 71.8 million as of dec 1....ugh this math is killing me.

Both undertracked, possibly by 1m.

ship vs sold for 10' and 11' were 6.5m shipped vs 6m sold.

Naturally, this should put ps3 shipments as of dec 31 2012, at roughly 74m, with 2m of which occurring in the first month. So, 4m from nov-dec. Our numbers say only 5m ps3s were sold in oct-dec. I'm guessing ps3 was hugely undertracked this past holiday, likely by rest of world figures not tracked by gfk, npd, and mediacreate. Especially if tretton is saying 77m shipped as of feb 20, which, with a sell through in jan and feb of 1.2m, would mean an astounding 4m on shelves somehow.



theprof00 said:
JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
kitler53 said:
JayWood2010 said:
It has already outshipped the X360 if I remember correctly. It just hasn't sold through as many from the retailer side of things.


are we sure?  what was the shippment differential?  MS shipped 1.3M this quarter so how many does sony have to ship to pull ahead?  i was thinking sony was behind by just under a million and i don't see sony shipping 2.3M this quarter.

I'm not sure to be honest but i thought Sony was at 77m shipped and MSFT was at 76m shipped.  I really am not sure. 

no no, "that guy" (forget who made the quote) said it sort of off the cuff mid quarter.  so MS was at 76 and sony was at whatever it was at the previous quarter plus part of a quarter plus whatever rounding went into that guy's head.  BUT... considering how long sony has been combinding ps2 with ps3 it was sort of a big deal because we don't really,. "know".  gaf has their estimates and from what i remember their best guess was ps3 was behind by ~0.9M at the end of last quarter.

..or something.  there is a lot of FUD in ps3's numbers.

I forgot about them combining the PS2 and PS3 numbers.  It is hard to say who has shipped more than who then.  They have both been doing great recently though for as old as they are so that is a plus :)

This is what troubles me though.

3DS 2,862,179 (-80%) 30,431,365
PS3 2,440,344 (-78%) 74,225,278
X360 1,663,117 (-83%) 75,238,563
PSV 685,201 (-80%) 4,621,308
WiiU 682,148 (-70%) 2,938,657
Wii 652,283 (-87%) 99,331,420
PSP 443,443 (-85%) 76,222,331
DS 402,544 (-88%) 153,941,393

We have GFK saying ps3 is down 14% and 360 down 16%.
We have NPD saying ~22% each.

Those two territories are the biggest ones, so why do our numbers for 2012 up to this point in time read 3.2m? That's a full 35% drop. Both consoles are likely undertracked already by a good 250k+ which should put both shipment numbers at around 1.9m.

The only problem is that traditionally, as of march, 360 has always had 1.3m on shelves, and ps3 had ~500k.

I think both consoles are definitely undertracked by a large margin.... Possibly even close to 1m undertracked.

Sony said that as of Nov 4, 2012, they had shipped 70m. But they sold 71.8 million as of dec 1....ugh this math is killing me.

Both undertracked, possibly by 1m.

If they are undertracked then that is only good news.  I mean Im sure it'll cause a few arguments on forums but overall that is great news.  I'd like to see both reach 90m if possible



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JayWood2010 said:

If they are undertracked then that is only good news.  I mean Im sure it'll cause a few arguments on forums but overall that is great news.  I'd like to see both reach 90m if possible


I editted the post a bit. Yeah, I'd like to see them both hit 90m too. Pretty sure they both will. The question is whether they'll hit 100m :D. Depending on this new set-top 360, I havea  feeling that MS has a better chance of reaching it.



All this analysis around guesses..

We wont know for sure unless we are be told a PS3 number at a quarter end to align the numbers properly.

Its frustrating.



I'm not really here!

Link: Shipment History Since 1995


kowenicki said:
All this analysis around guesses..

We wont know for sure unless we are be told a PS3 number at a quarter end to align the numbers properly.

Its frustrating.

well, here is the conflicting information, just so we can all be on the same page.

Jack Trettons: 77m at feb 20
IDC: 77m at jan 1
VGC: 5m sales in december
VGC: Sales of 1.2 million for jan-feb 20
Sony: no shipped numbers for dec 31

One thing is for certain, both consoles are at least undertracked by 250k. That is guaranteed.

The only problem with getting numbers from THIS quarter, is that if they don't give us totals, or dec numbers as well, we still won't have enough information.

My prediction is that both were very close to 76m shipped as of jan 1.



As of 31 dec 2012 the difference was about 500k.



shanbcn said:
As of 31 dec 2012 the difference was about 500k.

It all really depends on two things.

1) vgc numbers from december
2) jack tretton's 77m units shipped as of feb 20