So yeah. Looking at the numbers released earlier today:

Total Wii U software sales as of Q3: 11.69 million
Total Wii U software sales as of Q4: 13.42 million

So they only sold 1.7 million games between January and March globally, including digital versions and bundles. They came in far below their 16 million unit projection, which was itself a 30% drop from their initial 24 million unit projection last year. But then they expect to sell 38 million just this year (April '13 to March '14). For reference, they also projected 20m in software for the Wii, 10m for the DS and 80m for the 3DS in the same timeframe.

But how?

The biggest exclusive we know about through August is Pikmin 3. Pikmin 1 and 2 sold well, but neither were huge blockbuster games. The vast majority of those numbers are going to be made in fall and winter, as it's likely the current quarter (Q1 2014) will be as bad as this one, if not worse.

They'd have to do something crazy like pull out Smash Bros. U this Christmas on top of MKU, Mario U and Wind Waker HD, along with a $100+ price cut or something. I just can't fathom how they expect to have those kind of sales without anything that dramatic.

I don't even know myself. Really wish they could bring back the 49.99 price for some games though. They don't even have huge budgets like the other games do.

My guess is Mario Kart and Mario 3D will make it before the end of fiscal '14, maybe even Smash Bros by next March if they push it.

But really an estimate costs Nintendo nothing really, they can aim high and then revise it downwards to a more realistic number as the fiscal year rolls on. Shipment estimates that company's give out at the beginning of a fiscal year are often basically their "best case scenario" situation.

I agree
They will be VERY agressive this holiday

Maybe you'll receive a free blowjob from Miyamoto for each WiiU software purchase later this year? I honestly don't know.

Nintendo's missed basically all their hardware and software targets for the last 2 or 3 years it seems like, so this being another target set up to fail wouldn't exactly be shocking.

The real craziness is the hardware projection of 9m compared to 3.45m so far. 38m software makes sense for 9m hardware units.

So either EVERYTHING is coming out (Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros) or they're delusional.

yyyuuuk

That's terrible...

OT: It's clear that they want to mirror 3DS's Holiday 2011. But I'm not sure they will achieve.

It's a perfectly plausible number. 38 million is less than the PS3 did in 2007 (Vgc has it at 37 million, but VGCs total software back then was slightly lacking - the actual number is likely higher). 

And honestly, matching the Ps3s 2007 isn't exactly overly optimistic. The Ps3 had an installed base of 8 million at the end of 2007. The Wii u is by Nintendo expected to have one of 12 million. 

If anything, the software prediction is low-end. 

H-how'd all these replies show up before I submitted the thread!? O_O

@Soundwave - Can they REALLY afford to be so flippant about their projections, though? These sales expectations are set to dictate how they spend their money and how much they expect to make. And yet they're still expecting almost 40 million units when they only hit around half their initial software target this year?

@KH - That wouldn't push me towards buying a WiiU... XD