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Forums - General Discussion - Are We Going Into An Ice Age?

Baalzamon said:

Yes folks, this is a completely serious question (and no, this doesn't mean it won't still be a warm Summer necessarily, it means that we are in the process of going into an ice age)

Maybe some of you aren't familiar (being that the news doesn't give a rats ass about us in the midwest due to the bombings...and just in general), but areas of Minnesota are still in the brunt of a winter that has literally never been seen in the recordbooks.

Lets just start out with temperatures: Through April 18th, St. Cloud MN is about 9.8° F below average for temperature in April. The coldest April in the entire recordbooks was about 7.5° F below average.  Our temperatures through Tuesday are supposed to remain at 35-45° highs, which is 15-25° below avearge. After that, we are supposed to finally hit 50° for the first time on April 25th (Still 10° below average). The latest 50° day ever in St. Cloud MN is April 20th, so that record will be broken. The latest 60 degree day ever is April 26th. If the models can be believed, we will finally hit 60 on April 29th, so that record will be broken. Now, if you take the temperatures predicted by models through the end of the month, St. Cloud should wind up closer to about 11° below average for the month of April. This isn't just barely breaking the record (I can understand records being broken by a little), it is absolutely smashing it beyond belief (Breaking the coldest month on record by 3.5° for a whole month is completely unheard of).

Now, lets just go ahead and talk about snowfall: In April, St. Cloud MN averages 3" of snowfall, with an average of 2 days of accumulating (Trace or higher) snow for the month. On April 5th, a trace of snow was seen (no big deal). On April 10th, the first winter storm warning for April of this year was issued. Predictions were for 8-10" of snow to fall. We received a trace on April 10th, 8.7" April 11th, 1.4" April 12th, .4" April 13th, .4" April 14th, and a trace April 15th. Almost immediately after this storm passed, another winter storm watch was issued with predictions of 6-8" of snow to fall. On April 17, we received 1.1", with an additional 9.4" on April 18th (there is no measurement yet April 19th. Many locations including my own house received totals of 13.5-14" in this snowstorm). This puts the total snowfall for April at 21.4" officially (with localized areas as high as 25"). This doesn't sound like a big deal, but this hasn't happened since 1893, when St. Cloud received 24" on April 19th, and 12" on April 26th. That year wasn't NEARLY as cold though. To tip this off, we have had 10 days now with a trace or more snowfall so far this month. So is it done? Not quite. Models have hinted at another 2-6" this saturday/sunday, with more lingering snow showers into next week, with the possibility of 3-4 more days having at least trace accumulations (for a total of 13-14 days this month with at least a trace).

Ok, so maybe we aren't going into an ice age (although this is some darned crazy weather), but for all those global warming fanatics, I hope you realize it only takes a few years to dive deep into an ice age.


The short answer is no, we are not seeing the begining of another ice age with the long cold prairie winter.  As an earth scientist and researcher in Saskatchewan I am depressed by the never ending winter this year we are sharing with the northern prairie states.

This is an example of inter annual variation.  The snow pack was very heavy this year, and during initial melt there were cold periods accompanied by snowfall.  This led to a long period of persistance of the snow pack and very high albedo creating localized cooling.  Since the remaining snow pack is so wide spread we are seeing a late onset of spring.

Why is this not an ice age? because it is not causing the glaciers to advance.  The snow will be gone soon and there will be no permanent change as a result.  We have been in an ice age for about 2 milllion years, however we are in an interglacial warm period at the moment.

It actually takes a long time for the planet to switch between glacial and interglacial periods in an ice age, and while we are past the interglacial maximum, there is nothing to get excited about yet.  When the glaciers begin advancing on a yearly basis across wide areas of the northern hemisphere, (they are receeding in recent decades) then a transition may be begining.

Usually this transition is as a result of long term orbital wobbles called Milankovitch cycles and changes in greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere.  While the wobbles may present us with problems in 11000 CE, the greenhouse gas trend is currently going in the opposite way for the onset of another glaciation period.

Relax, it is just bad local weather is what I am trying to say.



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RedInker said:
Weren't geologists worried that we were heading into an ice age back in the 70's? As far as I can recall it didnt happen. It is possible that its just a cold spring and not the sign of a mini ice age.

The data back then was skewed due to dust/sulfite particles in the air (and that wasn't taken into acount) blocking the sunlight. Stricter rules against pollution were already put into place by then and the effect kicked in some decades later. Nowadays the air is much cleaner on average.



People, I realize it is a cold spring, but it is not "just a cold spring". Just a cold spring will be 2nd, or 3rd, or 4th, on the records, or break the record by maybe .5°. We are going to be breaking the record by probably 3.5°. That is incredible.

Also, if you would read the whole thing, I realize this doesn't mean: OMG, ITS AN ICE AGE, but also realize that the ridge just being stuck in the western US all April shouldn't happen.

And to the one who said the albedo effect is the cause of this (while it may be keeping Canada cooler, which is then coming down here), it also has a lot to do with the fact we are stuck in a trough. Once the ridge moves over, it will warm up.

But the simple fact is, we shouldn't be stuck in a trough this nasty for this long. There's a reason it is completely smashing the past record for coldest April on record.



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I don't think people realize we're still in an ice age.



Lafiel said:

I'm a geologist and there are several sound hypothesises how global warming can result in the next glacial period (or "Ice Age", although we consider this earth-epoch, the holocene, to be an "Ice Age" anyway with glacial and interglacial(warm) periods, yet most of the time it's cold).

Ofcourse other more popular hypothesises state that our climate changes to a "hot house climate", yet we have seen heatspikes at the end of several interglacial periods, so I personally think it's very possible that at the end of this current one we will see another glacial/ice age. Interesting times are ahead :).

How does this relate to the on going trend of  glacial retreat.



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mjk45 said:
Lafiel said:

I'm a geologist and there are several sound hypothesises how global warming can result in the next glacial period (or "Ice Age", although we consider this earth-epoch, the holocene, to be an "Ice Age" anyway with glacial and interglacial(warm) periods, yet most of the time it's cold).

Ofcourse other more popular hypothesises state that our climate changes to a "hot house climate", yet we have seen heatspikes at the end of several interglacial periods, so I personally think it's very possible that at the end of this current one we will see another glacial/ice age. Interesting times are ahead :).

How does this relate to the on going trend of  glacial retreat.

uhm.. I don't denie global warming, it's getting hotter, especially in the polar regions and glaciers are melting at an alarming pace, yet there are mechanisms how this might actually lead to a drastic cooling

the hypothesis is that europe and north america are warm right now mainly because of the gulf stream which flows from the caribean gulf to north of norway/svalbard and carries warm/ low on salt water at the surface and cold/highly saline water at the bottom - now global warming means that a lot of cool/cold fresh water is added to the ocean, but that water can't sink down as quickly as highly salted water does so the stream might weaken and not lead as far into the north anymore or even stop completely resulting in very very drastic cooling for the northern hemnisphere

different hypothesises say very similar things may happen in the pacific ocean, but frankly pacific ocean streams are barely researched at this point



Glacial advancement and retreat is just a mass balance problem, if more mass is added to the glacier than sublimates or melts, they advance, otherwise, they retreat. In a warmer environment it is possible that winter deposition may increase allowing the glaciers to advance, however, my glaciologist coworkers see no sign of this happening at the moment.

As to the shutdown of the gulf stream... a geologist friend of mine was looking at a partial shutdown of the bifurcated Icelandic portion of the stream in the past. The effect was sudden, but not global in scope. Locally it was bad. In terms of total energy transfer of the gulf stream, It may have negative impacts on western Europe, but it is not likely to change Canadian or Russian conditions much since they don't benefit from it much right now. The ocean currents are not the only poleward energy conduit.



Lafiel said:
Slimebeast said:
Lafiel said:
Augen said:

As a professional in the field, how much does the percentage of carbon in our atmoshpere affect such things?

In the past we had an ice house to hot house change at about 200ppm CO2 (it rose to 285ppm shortly after it got to be a hot house climate), but back then a majority of the landmasses were located near the equator.


How can that be? Those 200ppm and 280ppm ice core measurements go back tens of thousands and at max a hundred thousands of years back in time, correct?

While landmasses to significantly move is a process that takes millions of years, doesn't it?

yes, the ice cores aren't old enough (I'm pretty sure the oldest one we have goes ~800k years back and the oldest still preserved in the antarctic ice sheet might be about 1.5 million years old ), but those aren't the only way to determine past atmospheric compositions, although they are more accurate than other methods

coral/shell/brachiopod fossils and certain sediments, sedimentary facies  for example can give good clues about those aswell

Ok, I understand.

But still, when landmass was concentrated near the equator (the Pangea continent), wasn't that like +100 million of years ago? And I recall that I have seen numbers of past CO2 thrown around of at least 500ppm if not more. But perhaps those really high CO2 concentrations were pre-cambrian and after that it's been more or less stable in the 2-300ppm ballpark during almost 500 million years. Is that the current theory? Which would mean that our current 390ppm is a level we haven't seen in hundreds of millions of year. Is that the current theory, or have we had 500ppm levels after the cambrian, during interglacial periods or whatever?

I'm just curious.



Also, I never understood what triggers the glacial-interglacial periods and the differences of at least 4 degrees Celcius (or is it even +6 degrees?).

I also haven't got a good explanation for the lag in CO2 concentration to temperature if CO2 is supposed to be the driving force or trigger.



You could say the same about the UK, it's late April and they are still hardly any leaves on the trees. Most plants still haven't come through. Spring is way over a month late now. We still get night time frosts occasionally even now, which is very unusual for us. The snow has melted here though, but in some parts it lasted from January to early April with the odd warm spell. It's still far colder than last year though. I think the record low Arctic sea ice last summer has a major cause in this, as it releases huge amounts of cold water which helps to change our weather patterns. In London, we have currently have temperatures of 15c in the day now, despite being only 5c about 2 weeks ago and 0c before that. Not as bad as what you are saying but still colder than we expect. I don't if we could say this is leading to an ice age unless it became a yearly event (remember winter used to be like this about 200 to 300 years). But extreme weather events of all kinds are certainly becoming common.



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