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EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich believes Sony and Microsoft will shift a substantial number of next-generation consoles before New Year.

“EEDAR is forecasting over 11 million consumers to transition to the next-generation by the end of 2014 (PS4 and Xbox),” the analyst told GamesIndustry.

“By the end of 2017, this will balloon to over 50 million consumers, all willing to spend money to consume quality content.”

Interestingly, Divnich’s comments actually arose as part of a discussion on the number of developers switching to mobile and tablet. The analyst said supply will soon outstrip demand for quality mobile games, while the console market will be hungry for new content.

“It’s a market that independent developers shouldn’t ignore and one that the console manufacturers must foster to gain independent support,” he said.

“Independent developers cannot afford to operate with blinders on. Independent developers should be looking across every platform while they think about new game development. Just like how the PC industry changed, consoles are changing too and there are more opportunities than ever before to make great games that can also make great money.”

The PlayStation 4 is expected in the 2013 holiday season, although we’re not holding our breath for a global simship just yet. The next Xbox hasn’t even been announced, although we’re expecting details in May ahead of a full reveal at E3 2013.

360 sold 8 million in 2005 and 2006 and ps3 sold over 9m in 2006 and 2007. so, 11 million sounds pretty low or at least not much but the analyst sounds as if that would be crazy sales.

So 6 mil of one, 5 mil of the other? With Wii U sorta the 15mil mark?

Seems plausible.

it actually doesnt. we can assume both MS and Sony shift minimum 2 million sales this year. that would leave one with 4M and the other with 3M for the ENTIRE 2014 year. thats worse than vita level sales

That is a bit low. I guess one could come out in 2013, the other 2014? So 11mil PS4, 4mil 720?

still he is talking about both consoles together. the ps4 should be able to hit the 11 million mark at the end of 2014 by its self. when you are saying that both consoles should hit 11 million with 2 holiday seasons is pretty low. even if the 720 released early next year it should sell atleast 6~7 million by its self

It is simple, they are predicting a shrinking of the industry or they are only talking about the America market. I can see the first one happening, a lot of people is playing now but on their cellphones and tablets (usually for free) so they don't need a new console in the near future, and even with a PS3 or a Xbox 360 can be satisfied.

It's not really a shirinking market they are forcasting. They are forcasting a slow start because of the recession and sluggish growth (job etc) that seems stalled under 3%. I expect anything over $300 will not be considered mass market price next gen because people just don't have the money to spend on luxury items like they did before 2007.

Completely delusional, unless he is including Wii U aswell.

why do you think that?