I think they would be fine with 25M by 2014.  I don't think any ships have sailed though, they had a solid Christmas 2012 and Jan-Mar of any year is almost insignifcant.  They just need to ramp up interest and sales starting now and going forward.

Wii U isn't going to sell anywhere close to the 3DS.

Nintendo consoles, even the most wildly successful Wii have not be able to keep pace with handhelds, so using sales of 3DS as any kind of indicator for Wii U's future is flawed to begin with.

It needs the steady stream of games Iwata promised. The weird thing is that with the already announced games they can do it, but we need release dates as soon as possible.

Obviously they'd want that, but I doubt they could afford to. 3DS was losing a modest amount of money, but with WiiU Nintendo ar making a significant loss on each unit sold. According to them, they'd need to sell 'more than one' game with every WiiU to break even. That means a loss between 50-100 Dollars, most likely. At the end of this year, that number might have gone down a bit, but there's no way they'll be close to breaking even, let alone make a profit.

Would they then want to cut price even more, increasing their losses? I doubt it, especially since by then, WiiU will have a solid library, including some veritable system sellers, plus its competitors will be out, with far heftier pricetags, making WiiU look appealing and pretty cheap in comparison.

Actually, analysis of the chipset in the WiiU suggests that the custom unit would probably come down rapidly in cost year over year.  Let's assume a 20% savings from launch last year to Christmas 2013.  Losses per system will probably be greatly reduced by then - it's one of the advantages of launching first.  Sony used it well on both PS1&2, getting the costs down before competitors and reducing price.  Then you look at the massive change in the yen vs Euro and US dollar.  Launch assumed 80yen per US$, it's now pushing 100.  That's a 25% gain in revenue per system sold in foreign markets.  Combining those two factors, Nintendo could possibly slash the Wii U price by 25% ($75) and maintain even better margins than at launch, or better yet, cut the system by $50 and make a profit on each unit sold.  The weak yen makes it much easier for Nintendo to slash prices than it was when the 3DS was in the same situation.

I think we can expect a price drop in the fall on Wii U to a $249-$299 range, or perhaps a dropping of the basic model (which probably had the worst margins) and new bundles.  Nintendo can then also copy 3DS strategy by launching the now-ready Super Mario U and MarioKart U, and the WindWaker HD (SM3DL, MK7, OoT3D anyone?).

I wouldn't expect it to turn Wii U into the dominant presence that 3DS is, but I would expect a massive jump in sales and a product that is very appealing to a lot of customers when compared with what will likely be more expensive new systems from MS and Sony that also have somewhat limited libraries (Vita?).

Well, it will be interesting to see what happens, but obviously Nintendo would prefer not to cut price, if at all possible. It's known that the GamePad's a big contributor to WiiU's pricepoint, and I doubt that'll see any very significant drops in manufacturing costs...

Imo think it's a given they'll release both Mario Kart and 3D Mario in Q4, and we already know WWHD is coming sometime this fall. They -need- those games to counter PS4/X720. So in that sense they're definitely copying their 2011 3DS strategy. If they do a pricecut, I'd assume they'd drop the Basic model and price the Deluxe at $299, like you mentioned. Maybe bundle another game like WiiU Fit or NSMBU with that.

That would also give them some breathing room to further drop the price to $249 whenever they deem it necessary (like when PS4/X720 begin to pose an increased threat sometime in 2014 or beyond, when those might get big games or pricedrops of their own).

Then again, they might surprise us all and drop the price to $199, no-one saw the *huge* 3DS drop coming! :P

It is not.