true that PSone and 2 were dominant, but MS is stronger than it and/or Sega was those gens so there may be less market for Nintendo when you consider they've got a strong MS and Sony to contend against.  I wouldn't guess any less than 30, but the casuals are a real x factor.  If they want HD they may just get PS3 or 360 which will be cheaper and still have pricecuts to go.  Mario will sell his share, but Nintendo shouldn't rest on him completely.  If the next smash bros can be a real phenomenon with online play for Nintendo it could be big.  Zelda with the gamepad could also do very well (I think it could be used for puzzles wonderfully and will be nice for inventory management which was always tedious in previous zeldas).  They're also pretty dependent on the price of competitors.  If PS4 is only $400 then it's only $50 more than WiiU deluxe.  Anyone can see the graphical difference there so that could be a problem for people who are on the fence.  If they can get the price down $50 then we're talking about a pretty substantial difference.

Define "casuals." Becaues 50mil seems to low. I would say they make up at least 2/3s of the Wii's install base.

It's obviously impossible to know for sure because we really don't have a firm definition on what a casual gamer is. But Nintendo's premier core game over the last 2 gens has become Super Smash Bros. It has grown a decent 50% since the gamecube days. Nintendo's premier game for everyone core and casual is Mario Kart. It has grown nearly 500% since last gen. Even assuming core gamers were just as likely to buy both Smash Bros and Mario Kart, that still leaves 20mil copies of mario kart sold to casuals compared to 10mil sold to the core.

So it would seem casuals make up the majority of the Wii audience. Which makes sense. 80million growth does not happen without massively expanding your audience. 

I'm guessing the Wii U will sell around 35mil. Unless nintendo thinks of something remarkable to regain their casual support in which case the sky is the limit

What does my sig have to do with that predicition?

I'd say around 40-50 million

Exactly. Mario didnt save the N64 or Gamecube alone, they had so many great games. Love the Zelda idea about item management. The ball really is in Nintendos court. Microsoft are definitly stronger than what Sega were and Sony are resurgant. It'll be good to watch and, while i cant see WiiU winning this gen, i cetainly see it starting to shift once the big games hit. And, as you said, if its coupled with a strategic pricedrop as well as better public understanding of its main selling point, the Gamepad, it should start to turn around. 

1 billion sales.

55,459,674 by January 2018

17 Million. Maybe less but not more. I think the Wii U will be discontinued quite quickly, being replaced by a system that actually can compete tech-wise with PS4 and XBox 3. The new console will arrive in 2015 and it will make the whole "What's Next-Gen" discussion even more messy. Because Nintendo Fanboys will insist that Nintendo started Gen 9.

Also, a whole lot of Wii U titles will be moved to the new console, so don't expect too much games for poor Wii U.

Speculation is real funny. :P

I think anything below GC sales as a prediction just doesn't make a lot of sense. So no less than 25 mil.

40-50mil seems about right.

I voted 20-30 million, but my personal estimate is 23-26, if Nintendo plays their card right. Considering the launch, though, that's not a certainty.