In February 2008, I had projected Wii at around ~110m in 77 months from launch (when GC had sold 22m). Converted to years, 77 months is six years and five months. Wii launched November 2006. 

It looks like Wii will be at 100 million in 77 months (April 2013), rather than 110 million as I had thought back in 2008. It's actually pretty amazing how consistent Wii has stayed at 5x the level of GC.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/847/worldwide-wii-sales-pass-gamecube-sales-during-the-week-ending-21608/

As always, TheSource is right

If that was a true prediction rather than just meant as an illustrative example of early Wii success, then it really was a great prediction.

TheSource, what are you doing nowadays? I can't quite remember what your new job was after you left the VGC job.

Pretty damn good prediction Source.

Curious to see your 3DS/ Wii U predictions

I work for a community college and pull / grab / design data for various audiences - the state, the county, the faculty and the powers that be at the institution.

I think everything is going to fail this generation relative to the previous one.

Wii (100-105m) --> Wii U (50-60m)

PS3 (90-95m) --> PS4 (50-60m)

X360 (85-90m) --> Onebox (60-70m)

I figure:

PS3 (11m Japan, 27m US, 33m EU, 21m elsewhere) ---> PS4 (6m Japan, 16m US, 26m EU, 8m elsewhere)

Wii (13m Japan, 42m US,  34m EU, 14m elsewhere) ---> Wii U (8m Japan, 22m US, 16m EU, 7m elsewhere)

X360 (2m Japan, 45m US, 25m EU, 16m elsewhere) ---> One Box (1m Japan, 35m US, 20m EU, 8m elsewhere)

I think social tolerance for gaming is about 10 years behind in the US vs. Japan, the PS1 era was the console peak there (19m PS1s, 11m N64s & Saturns - 30m consoles total, PS2 era was 28m (w/ DC, or 26m w/o DC), the current Wii era will be 26m - so you can make the case that with no population growth gaming shrunk in Japan each gen by 2m from the PS1 --> PS2 --> Wii eras. SNES + Turbografx + Gen did about 23m in Japan, so we're sort of moving back toward the pre-peak era figures.

The US market in contrast has gone like this:

SNES + GEN - 40m

PS1 + N64 + SAT - 47m

PS2 + XBX + GC + DC - 76m

X360 + Wii + PS3 - 114m

...but the last two years have been pretty similar to 1999-2000, which is unusual - usually the transitions take you back one cycle, not two. But the numbers have been like late in the PS1 era. So I think 2002-2009 may have been the largest the US video game industry will ever get...which leads to this:

One Box + Wii U + PS4 - 73m

The Wii won't hit 100 million sold till long after April.

uh. . . JPs ps2 era was over 32M when you add GC

and just like you made that article predicting wiis 2013 numbers back in 08

i will use this thread and say that im 100% positive PS4 will sell over 60M WW and 100% positive WiiU will not reach 60M ever

yes the source has been notoriously bad with his predictions in the past.I seem to remember he said both the Xbox360 and PS3 will not sell over 60 million and the wii will sell 130 million minimum.

with his new, one wii U 50-60, well at least hes optomistic. Personally I think it'll struggle to get half that

X360 and PS3 would have both sold way under 60m if not for Kinect and Move so when I was saying stuff like that back in 08' / early 09' I don't really feel bad about it. The PS3 & X360 would have both peaked at 13m in 2010 without those devices and declined to 10m in 2011, 8m in 2012, and then 5 or 6m in 2013. 

Wii at 130m wasn't too high either honestly...if it had reached 110m in April then you'd see 115m-120m for a lifetime figure.