Sounds reasonable at this point, without knowing anything about the nextbox and no idea of pricing for that nor the Ps4 you can't really distinguish the two consoles sales-wise imo. Once we have a clearer idea of nextboxes pricing, Ps4 pricing, and stuff like used game blocking, online subscription fee's and potential exclusive content buyouts it will be easier to distinguish them saleswise. Really I see things continuing much like they are now though - with Sony seeing better sales in Japan / Europe and Microsoft making up the difference in the USA.

I see Wii-U struggling to hit the 50M mark but I find it incredibly difficult to judge just how big a difference the big NIntendo games will make once they hit. People are gonna buy the thing for Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda etc and they were behemoth hits on the Wii, but they were all there on the GCN and N64 and neither came close to 50M sales. If there's not a huge price cushion over the competition I see it really struggling, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it have a solid $150 cushion for over a year past the launch of Nextbox / Ps4.

When your prediction is below Pachter's, you know you are in the wrong.

Yeah but he isn't predicting Nintendo's doom, and honestly Nintendo does look to be in trouble if they continue to ignore things people want (Online, media, Third Party).

There sure will be at some point a last console generation once streaming technologie is stable and advanced enaugh to reach most consumers than there will be no need for new consoles anymore. You only need a receiver and this could be anything, Sony might use their TVs as receiver and stream new playstation games directly in new Sony TVs, you could buy Playstation as service to your new TV then.

The end of conventional consoles is already settled the only question is when this changeover will happen.

Given that Pachter seems to be absolutely great at being wrong, even going so far as being around about the 3DS TWICE in as many years (says it's going to have a great first few months, then it has a bad first few months. Says 3DS won't do very well and that Vita will outsell it...Vita flops and 3DS begins selling incredibly well), I think this is great news for gamers and Nintendo fans. Let's not forget Pachter also predicted initial big success for the Wii U.

While I do think the game console may eventually die, I don't see how this can be the last generation. What exactly is going to replace the game console? Smart phones? PCs? The former will never happen simply because phones are not and will never be able to do games as well as consoles, unless console controls become a universal standard in future smart phones, which kind of defeats the purpose of a smart phone's form factor. PCs will never do it for the same reason they haven't already: gaming PCs are more expensive (a trend likely to continue given that Sony and Microsoft have always sold their consoles below manufacturing cost, something a PC manufacturer can't do), less user friendly (if you want to build your own PC) and lack the console exclusives that make Sony and Nintendo platforms so attractive to consumers to begin with.

But hey, who knows where we'll be five or six years from now. Even a broken clock is right twice, and game consoles WILL eventually go the way of the stand alone music player. The question is, when? Looking at those sales predictions, I don't really see HOW this can be the last generation, unless cloud gaming makes some serious advances in the next 6 years,and even things things are pretty heavily dependent on America getting it's act together and building out it's infrastructure, bringing cable internet to many more homes.

Streaming technologie initiate the dead of conventional consoles, there is no further need for new consoles anymore when you could stream new games without any technical limitations  to almost any device you like. We are almost at this point that streaming technologie is advanced enaugh for this.

The upper bound of Pachter's WiiU prediction seems fine.

However, his prediction of the PS4 AND the XboxNext outselling their predecessor in a declining/dying market is hogwash.

I also wonder about American analysts who try to predict worldwide trends. They are usually very myopic and can't see the big picture.

No way we can predict anything at this moment, this is pointless.

So in true Pachter style, he has got everything wrong as usual. So we can expect the exact opposite of what he has predicted.

the guy should have learned by now that whatever he wants to say he should say teh exact opposite and he will be right