http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2013/03/06/expect-slow-adoption-of-all-three-consoles-next-generation/

Will the availability of AAA games like Watch Dogs on current and next gen hardware effect sales of these new consoles? You can see it already, with the WiiU having mostly 360/PS3 ports. In the past it was mostly sports games like Madden, but primarily you had to buy the new consoles for all the newest, most popular games.

16 million.

b.e.l.i.e.v.e.

I think cross gen titles will help. Who wouldn't want to have the awesome graphically enhanced version?

For the PS4 and Xbox 3 to get a good start, Sony/MS need to kill off the PS3 and 360. Next gen systems can't compete with cheaper 7th gen alternatives in this economy, at least not without suffering considerably as a result.

Will PS4 and Xbox 3 have as slow a start as Wii U? Almost certainly not. But the WILL have many sales cannibalized by their predecessors if the PS3/360 are allowed to limp on for years after their successors release.

Depends on price and games (launch and the 3-6 month post-launch).

We need to know more before jumping to conclusions.

Thats true but, most people won't spend $400+ just for prettier graphics. From that article, "63% of current Xbox 360 owners waited at least THREE YEARS [+ two months]  after  the 360 launched, before buying an Xbox 360".

The combination of ongoing PS3 exclusives (wtf Sony) and every third party game for the first two years (I guess) being dual this-gen/next-gen will very much hurt PS4 and 720.

The number of next-gen games that feel like they need a new console to be awesome will be limited to Killzone 4 this year. Halo and Gears don't come out this year. Everything else that could is third party.

Wii U does have two big shiny reasons to buy, ineffective as they are. 1. differentiated hardware, the tablet is defininitely new. 2. definite and obvious improvements to online, graphics, account system, social from day 1. Live and PSN are already great and full of content today.

Now it will be MUCH worse if they don't make PSN extremely fucking compatible with everything transferring. Feeling like all your friends are on PS3-PSN while you're on an empty PS4-PSN will be a very good reason to not buy.

Well of course a high percentage of of people wait until a few years have passed before buying. Haven't you seen the sales? These consoles didn't sell 75 million right after their launch.

Ignore data like that, it is obvious and isn't actually supporting the issue of cross gen titles being available. What you want to compare is how much appeal would the new systems have if they didn't have those games. It would be worse if Watch Dogs, Assassins Creed IV, etc. were not on the new systems. They would be relying on a much smaller line up of launch software, and don't go into the hypothetical that these games would just be next gen only titles. Next gen consoles have only been available for development for so long, that and figure in the install base the older system has. Majority of publishers if they had to choose would have released it on last gen than next gen. Cross gen makes it acceptable to do booth.

If the PS3 and 360 are still selling, why should Sony and Microsoft be upset? They're making more of a profit off those, anyway. People will switch in time, sure, as exclusives pile up, but it won't be a disaster if the transition takes awhile. The difference, of course, is that the Wii is basically dead; the Wii U isn't losing sales to the Wii, it's losing sales to the PS3/360.

I think people forget that selling the most consoles in a generation is more important to fanboys than to console manufacturers.

The one thing I wouldn't do, if I were in Sony's and Microsoft's shoes, is give the PS3/360 a price cut. I'd keep the price where it is now, except holiday specials.

Sony and Microsoft have larger core fanbases than Nintendo, the sales are just more sporadic than Nintendo. Some people buy the consoles for multimedia, games or both. I doubt they will meet resistance if the sales are fair. They'll have a good holiday compared to Nintendo.