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Forums - Politics Discussion - DPRK possibly mobilizing for war...

Why bother with reprints if you can get it directly from KCNA?

 Pyongyang, March 30 (KCNA) -- The government, political parties and organizations of the DPRK released the following special statement on Saturday:
    The moves of the U.S. imperialists to violate the sovereignty of the DPRK and encroach upon its supreme interests have entered an extremely grave phase. Under this situation, the dear respected Marshal Kim Jong Un, brilliant commander of Mt. Paektu, convened an urgent operation meeting on the performance of duty of the Strategic Rocket Force of the Korean People's Army for firepower strike and finally examined and ratified a plan for firepower strike.
    The important decision made by him is the declaration of a do-or-die battle to provide an epochal occasion for putting an end to the history of the long-standing showdown with the U.S. and opening a new era. It is also a last warning of justice served to the U.S., south Korean puppet group and other anti-reunification hostile forces. The decision reflects the strong will of the army and people of the DPRK to annihilate the enemies.
    Now the heroic service personnel and all other people of the DPRK are full of surging anger at the U.S. imperialists' reckless war provocation moves, and the strong will to turn out as one in the death-defying battle with the enemies and achieve a final victory of the great war for national reunification, true to the important decision made by Kim Jong Un.
    The Supreme Command of the KPA in its recent statement solemnly declared at home and abroad the will of the army and people of the DPRK to take decisive military counteraction to defend the sovereignty of the country and the dignity of its supreme leadership, as regards the war moves of the U.S. and south Korean puppets that have reached the most extreme phase.
    Not content with letting B-52 make sorties into the sky over south Korea in succession despite the repeated warnings of the DPRK, the U.S. made B-2A stealth strategic bomber and other ultra-modern strategic strike means fly from the U.S. mainland to south Korea to stage a bombing drill targeting the DPRK. This is an unpardonable and heinous provocation and an open challenge.
    By taking advantage of the U.S. reckless campaign for a nuclear war against the DPRK, the south Korean puppets vociferated about "preemptive attack" and "strong counteraction" and even "strike at the commanding forces", openly revealing the attempt to destroy monuments symbolic of the dignity of the DPRK's supreme leadership.
    This clearly shows that the U.S. brigandish ambition for aggression and the puppets' attempt to invade the DPRK have gone beyond the limit and their threats have entered the reckless phase of an actual war from the phase of threat and blackmail.
    The prevailing grim situation more clearly proves that the Supreme Command of the KPA was just when it made the judgment and decision to decisively settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists and south Korean puppets by dint of the arms of Songun, because time when words could work has passed.
    Now they are openly claiming that the B-2A stealth strategic bombers' drill of dropping nuclear bombs was "not to irritate the north" but for "defense". The U.S. also says the drill is "to defend the interests of its ally". However, it is nothing but a lame pretext to cover up its aggressive nature, evade the denunciation at home and abroad and escape from the DPRK's retaliatory blows.
    The era when the U.S. resorted to the policy of strength by brandishing nuclear weapons has gone.
    It is the resolute answer of the DPRK and its steadfast stand to counter the nuclear blackmail of the U.S. imperialists with merciless nuclear attack and their war of aggression with just all-out war.
    They should clearly know that in the era of Marshal Kim Jong Un, the greatest-ever commander, all things are different from what they used to be in the past.
    The hostile forces will clearly realize the iron will, matchless grit and extraordinary mettle of the brilliant commander of Mt. Paektu to the effect that the earth cannot exist without Songun Korea.
    Time has come to stage a do-or-die final battle.
    The government, political parties and organizations of the DPRK solemnly declare as follows reflecting the final decision made by Kim Jong Un at the operation meeting of the KPA Supreme Command and the unanimous will of all service personnel and people of the DPRK who are waiting for a final order from him.
    1. From this moment, the north-south relations will be put at the state of war and all the issues arousing between the north and the south will be dealt with according to the wartime regulations.
    The state of neither peace nor war has ended on the Korean Peninsula.
    Now that the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK have entered into an actual military action, the inter-Korean relations have naturally entered the state of war. Accordingly, the DPRK will immediately punish any slightest provocation hurting its dignity and sovereignty with resolute and merciless physical actions without any prior notice.
    2. If the U.S. and the south Korean puppet group perpetrate a military provocation for igniting a war against the DPRK in any area including the five islands in the West Sea of Korea or in the area along the Military Demarcation Line, it will not be limited to a local war, but develop into an all-out war, a nuclear war.
    It is evident that any military conflict on the Korean Peninsula is bound to lead to an all-out war, a nuclear war now that even U.S. nuclear strategic bombers in its military bases in the Pacific including Hawaii and Guam and in its mainland are flying into the sky above south Korea to participate in the madcap DPRK-targeted nuclear war moves.
    The first strike of the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will blow up the U.S. mainland and its bases for aggression in the Pacific operational theatres including Hawaii and Guam and reduce not only its military bases in south Korea but the puppets' ruling institutions including Chongwadae and military bases to ashes at once, to say nothing of the aggressors and the provokers.
    3. The DPRK will never miss the golden chance to win a final victory in a great war for national reunification.
    This war will not be a three-day-war but it will be a blitz war through which the KPA will occupy all areas of south Korea including Jeju Island at one strike, not giving the U.S. and the south Korean warmongers time to come to their senses, and a three-dimensional war to be fought in the air, land and seas and on the front line and in the rear.
    This sacred war of justice will be a nation-wide, all-people resistance involving all Koreans in the north and the south and overseas in which the traitors to the nation including heinous confrontation maniacs, warmongers and human scum will be mercilessly swept away.
    No force on earth can break the will of the service personnel and people of the DPRK all out in the just great war for national reunification and of all other Koreans and overpower their might.
    Holding in high esteem the peerlessly great men of Mt. Paektu, the Korean people will give vent to the pent-up grudge and realize their cherished desire and thus bring a bright day of national reunification and build the best power on this land without fail.

Does it look like declaring a war to you? Too much pointless rhetorics, wars do not start like that.



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Supposedly supposed to fire a missile today. Wonder how you back out of that one.



If they're launching a missile any time, they'll do it on Kim Il-Sung's birthday on the 15th. If they do, I hope that SK and allies launch a pre-emptive strike. It's time that North Korea's bullshit, threatening it's neighbours every time it wants food aid ends. If anything happens though, I feel China might take them over, just to ensure America doesn't get the resources there.



ROFLMAO said:
If they're launching a missile any time, they'll do it on Kim Il-Sung's birthday on the 15th. If they do, I hope that SK and allies launch a pre-emptive strike. It's time that North Korea's bullshit, threatening it's neighbours every time it wants food aid ends. If anything happens though, I feel China might take them over, just to ensure America doesn't get the resources there.


The only thing that holds me back from this is that I dont think China wants the humanitarian diaster that is north korea, all the starvation is horrendous.



 

The missile launch won't be an attack--it'll simply be a test, albiet one that contravenes the 2006 UN resolution banning the North from testing missiles or nukes. It's another example of the North increasing tensions and attempting to squeeze concessions out of the US.

The North isn't interested in launching a full scale war. The regime in Pyongyang know this would be suicidal. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of innocent people would die, but ultimately the US and South Korea would prevail. Their training and equipment gives them a huge advantage over the poorly equipped, poorly trained, under-fed and poorly maintained army the North commands. It wouldn't be an easy war, but the US and South together would win.

The North's actions right now aren't really designed for an international audience primarily--sure, they want the attention of Washington, but most of this rhetoric and most of these tests and provocations are aimed at proving Kim Jong-un's military prowess and authority to the Party, the military and wider population in North Korea. Remember that Kim Il-sung had no such reason to provoke the outside world, because the Party spun the stalemate of the Korean War as a victory for the North, legitimising and cementing the the Kim family's rule. Kim Jong-il was also publicly groomed and prepared for leadership and praised as a great military leader for decades, creating an authority that the current young Kim--who was only in the public eye for a matter of months before his father died--sorely lacks. He needs to stamp his authority down and maintain the illusion of ever present threat that keeps the regime in the North ruling. There are unsubstantiated rumours that an attempt on Kim Jong-un's life was made in November of last year, by one of the North's top generals--a general who has now vanished from public life. The North normally espouses violent rhetoric during every biannual wargame by the US and South Korea, but the reason the stakes are higher and the threats more violent, is most likely due to Kim's desperate need to legitimise and cement his rule.

This creates the danger of accidental full scale war. After the loss of 50 South Korean lives in 2010, the current government in Seoul cannot allow armed provocation to go unanswered. Indeed, the South's military will respond to any strikes from the North with overwhelming and disproportionate force, the action recommend in light of the North's last military strikes. The North has thus far gained very little from the escalation of rhetoric. The South and the US will not return to the negotiating table, nor will they engage with the regime directly or increase food aid, which would free Pyongyang to spend more of what little hard currency it has on the continuing development of weapons. If the North cannot win some kind of concession--indeed the provocations over the last few months have even toughened the Chinese stance on North Korea, the opposite effect to that which is desired--then Kim may feel pressured to authorise limited strikes, which invites powerful retribution from the South. Any retribution by the South would demand further action by the North: if Kim were to resist such pressure, he would most likely be removed or even killed. Kim may however claim victory when the wargames in South Korea come to an end, as most of his domestic audience would believe such a tale.

The problem then is that senior military and Party figures will know that little came of their threats, nuclear and missile tests, and that they may conclude the longer they support a leader unwilling to use their deteriorating arsenal, the weaker their negotiating position becomes. In the long term, the North's army becomes less formidable every day, and in the eyes of the Party and top military figures, this opens the path to their eventual ruin and the triumph of the South and the US. This is one of the key motivations behind the drive to establish a nuclear arsenal--such weapons on the peninsula could attack key US allies and some of the most densely populated urban areas in the world, wreaking untold havoc, which in turns reducing the importance of the North's deteriorating conventional arsenal. If the Party and military conclude that with Kim in power, the North will be unable to win further concessions from the international community that free more resources to devote to the nuclear programme--in their eyes, the ultimate insurance in the continuing rule of the Party and freedom from the threat of outside intervention--then Kim may be removed, or encouraged to launch an attack on Seoul. If the North were to capture Seoul, the Party's thinking is that its negotiating position becomes much, much stronger, forcing the US to interact directly with the regime in Pyongyang, allow the North to keep their nuclear weapons for fear they could detonate them within the captured Seoul, and furthermore allow the North to win greater concessions from the international community and the South, which constitutes a major victory for the North.

The danger of that happening is slim, but the risks for full scale war are there, even if no side desires to fight. The North cannot win a war, unless it is able to strike first and possibly capture Seoul, which is no easy task. Neither can it sit by and allow its infrastructure and conventional forces to fall further and further behind their enemies, reducing their effectiveness and weakening their negotiating position--thus the threat of a limited strike by Pyongyang remains on the table, in order to secure Kim's standing and possibly win some concessions from their enemies. The South, for its part, has no wish to damage economic growth and prosperity for the sake of a ruinous war which could see large parts of Seoul reduced to rubble, but neither can the government sit by and allow the North to test weapons or engage in limited strikes without severe military retribution. The United States cannot be seen to abandon its South Korean ally, and if necessary, would join with any strike back against the North, and this remains the most likely possibility for full-scale war to break out. Retribution from one side is exceeded by the other until a state of war exists.

As it is, it's impossible to know if that will happen. If it's true the North are preparing a test missile launch and another nuclear test, then it's clear Kim understands the dangers of a limited strike. The US has already toned down its rhetoric and reduced military activity, so limited concessions may be in sight for Pyongyang. However, if the new tests result in further action at the UN and more sanctions enforced by the South and the States, Kim only has one more card to play to cement his authority--the limited strike option, which invites full-scale war and the end of the regime.



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Kasz216 said:
Supposedly supposed to fire a missile today. Wonder how you back down from that one.


His missus took the missile batteries to put in her Wii balance board. It happens. They then save face. Boom.



People in South Korea don't seem phased. It is as if they're used to these 'threats'. He has a lot of reasons to do what he is doing (consolidating power for instance), and I am sure he is well aware of the consequences of war, and that's why I don't think he intends to follow through on this.

 

But still ... I'm waiting to see what will happen on the founder's birthday next week.



 

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Asriel said:

The North isn't interested in launching a full scale war. The regime in Pyongyang know this would be suicidal. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of innocent people would die, but ultimately the US and South Korea would prevail. Their training and equipment gives them a huge advantage over the poorly equipped, poorly trained, under-fed and poorly maintained army the North commands. It wouldn't be an easy war, but the US and South together would win.

Despite of how often I read this I never really understood on what premise this opinion is based?

Just above we've discussed the sad situation with TNWs ammunition in US Army (smth like ~500 warheads), which makes it pretty much impossible for the US and South Korea to win in any large-scale land operation against DPRK on DPRK terriotory by conventional means with acceptable losses (say, less than first Korean War). Of course, there's always an option of US strategic munitions, but this's like shooting sparrows with a cannon.