New year, old tricks. It seems.
I currently see 50M possible for PS3 and 360 will be pretty close.
Now, the arguments here are flawed in some points:
PS3:s first year is pretty equal to PS2:s first year - yes, that's true, but PS2 was available most of the year only in Japan, while PS3 was most of the year available WW and PS2:s sales were limited, to some extent, by supply constrains.
If you look at the sales regionally, you'll see that it's the Wii sales equal PS2 sales, not the PS3 sales.
PS3 was also launched in pretty similar circumstances that PSX and PS2, second one out and Nintendo after them. With the difference that this time Nintendo didn't give Sony a huge lead and PSX was new in the market, with no serious 3rd party support from the start.
120M PS2 fans - PS2 did sell 120M, but that doesn't make them fans. According to that logic, GC should have sold 60M, since NES had that much fans. Brand loyalty exists only if you have 2 or more similar products that offer the same value. Of course, we could argue what kind of value each console offers, since they are different in many ways and each offer features outside gaming, but as long as they are primarly gaming devices, the one with the best "gaming" focus has the benefit.
And besides, the brand recognition can go beyond the brand, a lot of people are buying Wiis as the "next Playstation".
HDTV adoption - Most people buy HDTV:s to watch their DVD:s, their SD-channels etc. on their HDTV:s, without even knowing what HD means. Also it looks like people confuse TV buyers and console buyers. The 80yo gramps, who buy HDTV to replace his old broken TV, isn't going to start thinking that which console he should be buying, bigger problem for him would be how to get his VCR (if he even have ever acquired one) to work on his new TV.
Although HD is everywhere, it doesn't mean that people would understand what it means.
PS3 has competition in HD market, 360, and besides, just like you can play PS3 and 360 on SDTV, you can play Wii on HDTV.
Blu-Ray - There are BD players available which come with a remote and without useless features like gameplayer. There are cheaper BD players available (with the remote) and while standalone players evolve, come compatible with 200GB discs and turn to ReWritable, i doubt PS3 will, or atleast the earlier models.
Ten years lifespan - If the sales doesn't pick up a lot, it will never have it. Or does it mean similar lifespan like the NES had for 20 years. Either way, it's not going to be supported in the market for that time. The people, who you are now claiming to buy PS3 for any technical advancement, which by PS3 fanboy logic is huge amount of people, will jump to competitors ship unless PS4 comes out to cut the PS3:s life cycle. Unless they are brand loyal and don't care about technological advancements. Oh wait, but PS fans did care, even that they have bought the almost weakest hardware for ten years now, when Sony came to console manufacturing out of nowhere and the brand loyal people didn't have any problems to jump ship.
And look at it, how many people that owned PS2 last gen, owns Wii or 360 this gen.
Market expands - Yes it does, but the one that is really expanding the market is Wii. Unless nearly all the last gens gamers buy PS3 or 360 (for primary console or secondary along with the Wii), neither is going to come even close 100M. Most of the multiconsole owners propably are the same people who owned multiple consoles last gen.
Ei Kiinasti.
Eikä Japanisti.
Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.
Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.
