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Forums - Sony Discussion - PSV 40m sold lifetime at minumum prediction

superchunk on 16 May 2013
Mmmfishtacos said:
Your prediction assumes that it never takes off. Which i still see it selling upwards of 70 million. Even with the slow start. People though the same thing about the ps3 in the first years of it's life. But look at it now, it may end up being number one this gen. PS3 also proves that a consoles start has nothing to do with it's finish. E3 is coming up and game informer has stated the PSV will have a large section of the show. A price cut to match the 3DS could double it sales over night. I keep saying this, but if Sony wants to really kick start the vita, all they need is a companion app for GT6 that allows you to use the vita as a speed and tachometer. Die hard GT fans are nuts, spending thousands on their rigs. So far I have about 500 in mine, when i'm done i'll have about two G's tied up in it and I'll buy a second vita just for my rig.

1) PS3 will never be #1. Even if Wii stopped right now.

2) PSV will likely never cost the same as the base 3DS. Sony has no intention of losing big money on hardware, especially hardware that is getting very little software sales to make up the losses.

3) Die-hard GT fans that spend thousands on their "rig"? So like an extra hundred thousand maybe?

4) I think you're trying too hard.



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superchunk on 16 May 2013
JayWood2010 said:
S.Peelman said:
I don't want to be nitpicky, but there's a misspelling in the OP. You say Uncharted sold 0.91k (and k's on the others too), it should be 0.91m, since 0.91k would be only 910 units .

I thought k stood for a thousand? lol  If it doesn't I'll fix it haha.  Thanks.  The numbers are outdated as far as software since I made this months ago.

k does mean 1,000. So 1K is 1,000. and 0.91k is 910... meaning you could do 910k or 0.91m as both would equal the intended 910,000.



Jaywood2010 on 16 May 2013
superchunk said:
JayWood2010 said:
S.Peelman said:
I don't want to be nitpicky, but there's a misspelling in the OP. You say Uncharted sold 0.91k (and k's on the others too), it should be 0.91m, since 0.91k would be only 910 units .

I thought k stood for a thousand? lol  If it doesn't I'll fix it haha.  Thanks.  The numbers are outdated as far as software since I made this months ago.

k does mean 1,000. So 1K is 1,000. and 0.91k is 910... meaning you could do 910k or 0.91m as both would equal the intended 910,000.

lol ohhhhh i see how i screwed it up now.  thanks




       

Chris1596 on 16 May 2013

I think about 35 Million



Mmmfishtacos on 16 May 2013
superchunk said:
Mmmfishtacos said:
superchunk said:

Vita should have been a smartphone.

I've been saying it would flop before it was even launched for this very reason.

There is no market for this device. Only the Nintendo will ever be potentially successful in the portable game only device market due to its extensive IPs and focus on lower priced hardware.

Vita will not surge due to PS4 connectivity unless its dropped to a $99 device and/or packed in with PS4. Even then its just turned into an accessory.

Originally I bet 2013 would be its final year, but with PS4 connectivity, Sony will try through 2014 meaning I revise my earlier death to happen in 2015 when it has less than 20m sold.

PSP did well as they quickly got it sub $200 and they had games like MH exclusive. Sony has no exclusive big portable titles and PS4 connectivity won't drive demand otherwise the gamepad would be all WiiU needed. Obviously that's not working out well without string content.

There is no way it will EVER sell 40m.

Right... 

So far, yes I'm 100% right.


When the vita hits 40 million i'll dig this post up. 



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Mmmfishtacos on 16 May 2013
superchunk said:
Mmmfishtacos said:
Your prediction assumes that it never takes off. Which i still see it selling upwards of 70 million. Even with the slow start. People though the same thing about the ps3 in the first years of it's life. But look at it now, it may end up being number one this gen. PS3 also proves that a consoles start has nothing to do with it's finish. E3 is coming up and game informer has stated the PSV will have a large section of the show. A price cut to match the 3DS could double it sales over night. I keep saying this, but if Sony wants to really kick start the vita, all they need is a companion app for GT6 that allows you to use the vita as a speed and tachometer. Die hard GT fans are nuts, spending thousands on their rigs. So far I have about 500 in mine, when i'm done i'll have about two G's tied up in it and I'll buy a second vita just for my rig.

1) PS3 will never be #1. Even if Wii stopped right now.

2) PSV will likely never cost the same as the base 3DS. Sony has no intention of losing big money on hardware, especially hardware that is getting very little software sales to make up the losses.

3) Die-hard GT fans that spend thousands on their "rig"? So like an extra hundred thousand maybe?

4) I think you're trying too hard.


1. Well just see about that. It has a very good shot. Only about 20 million to go and about 4 years left on the market.

2. It will cost the same and even less over the years, being that it's made from basic cell phone parts. The price of these parts drop fast.

3. Try an extra 2-3 million, you haven't a clue of the gt fanbase. 

4. i could say the same thing about you.



Sensei on 16 May 2013
superchunk said:
Mmmfishtacos said:
superchunk said:

Vita should have been a smartphone.

I've been saying it would flop before it was even launched for this very reason.

There is no market for this device. Only the Nintendo will ever be potentially successful in the portable game only device market due to its extensive IPs and focus on lower priced hardware.

Vita will not surge due to PS4 connectivity unless its dropped to a $99 device and/or packed in with PS4. Even then its just turned into an accessory.

Originally I bet 2013 would be its final year, but with PS4 connectivity, Sony will try through 2014 meaning I revise my earlier death to happen in 2015 when it has less than 20m sold.

PSP did well as they quickly got it sub $200 and they had games like MH exclusive. Sony has no exclusive big portable titles and PS4 connectivity won't drive demand otherwise the gamepad would be all WiiU needed. Obviously that's not working out well without string content.

There is no way it will EVER sell 40m.

Right... 

So far, yes I'm 100% right.


Didn't you just say your "Vita dead in 2013" prediction has failed? That's not 100% accuracy in my book.

Sony has already stated that it aims for the long term of its platforms. You're being foolish predicting Sony will discontinue the Vita any earlier than 5-6 years in market. I predict 2015 will be one of Vita's best years, that's when Sony will be able to hit a sweetspot with its pricing and game library.



superchunk on 16 May 2013
Sensei said:


Didn't you just say your "Vita dead in 2013" prediction has failed? That's not 100% accuracy in my book.

Sony has already stated that it aims for the long term of its platforms. You're being foolish predicting Sony will discontinue the Vita any earlier than 5-6 years in market. I predict 2015 will be one of Vita's best years, that's when Sony will be able to hit a sweetspot with its pricing and game library.

PSP-Go would like a word with you.

General idea that Vita would flop hard and could not compete is what I was going with on that always right part. But I can see you're point.



Mmmfishtacos on 16 May 2013
superchunk said:
Sensei said:


Didn't you just say your "Vita dead in 2013" prediction has failed? That's not 100% accuracy in my book.

Sony has already stated that it aims for the long term of its platforms. You're being foolish predicting Sony will discontinue the Vita any earlier than 5-6 years in market. I predict 2015 will be one of Vita's best years, that's when Sony will be able to hit a sweetspot with its pricing and game library.

PSP-Go would like a word with you.

General idea that Vita would flop hard and could not compete is what I was going with on that always right part. But I can see you're point.

PSP go was and experiment to test the waters for a download only vita. Nothing more. It was a half-baked experiment but still. 



DietSoap on 19 May 2013
superchunk said:
Sensei said:


Didn't you just say your "Vita dead in 2013" prediction has failed? That's not 100% accuracy in my book.

Sony has already stated that it aims for the long term of its platforms. You're being foolish predicting Sony will discontinue the Vita any earlier than 5-6 years in market. I predict 2015 will be one of Vita's best years, that's when Sony will be able to hit a sweetspot with its pricing and game library.

PSP-Go would like a word with you.

General idea that Vita would flop hard and could not compete is what I was going with on that always right part. But I can see you're point.

The Go is just a gimmick model of the PSP using leftover phone parts at the end of it's life much like the GBA Micro, plays all the same games. If the Go was a new system for new software, then I'd concede you might have a point.

 

For the record I'd guestimate 15 - 30 million lifetime. Lots of things, especially after the PS4 launch is finally out of the way, can happen, but generally I see above 40 million as an impossibility.