DaRev said:
Fact, almost every gamer will have to drop dead, before handhelds and consoles are replaced by cell phone gaming. What people, like you don't realise is that phones, whether smart or dumb, are a now a way of life. They are however not a way of gaming life. Therefore, people don't necessarily go out to buy a phone because they want to play the next God of War, Halo or Mario game or even the next Madden. They buy a phone because they want or need a phone. If the phone is able to play games then it’s an added bonus.
Yes phones compete for the same disposable income that people would spend on consoles or handhelds, but so does every other consumer product competes for people's disposable income. Therefore, it doesn't necessarily mean that phones and gaming devices are in direct competition with each other, to the extent that phone manufacturers (like Apple) could put gaming companies (like Nintendo) out of business.
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You have that completely backwards. People already own phones that play games and more are buying them every day. For many, this will sate their need to go buy a dedicated handheld to complement their phone. As mobile gaming improves, that need is lessened even more. Hardcore gamers will always want their dedicated handhelds but for the vast majority of the population, that is becoming less important as they are introduced to the world of gaming on their tablets and phones. You mentioned "disposable income". That is the very thing that dedicated game devices have working against them. Phone purchases are no longer disposable income purchases. They're a necessity for many. And if that non-disposable income device plays games and plays them at a satisfactory level for many, why would they then turn around and use their valuable disposable income for a dedicated gaming device?
And where on earth did you make the connection that I thought mobile gaming was going to replace consoles? I mentioned smart televisions right there in the post. Those are the devices that will begin to eat into console sales, not phones.
Which is why Microsoft is positioned nicely while Sony could be left on the outside looking in. MS has spent over a decade convincing consumers that the Xbox is a versatile machine to fill their entertainment needs by offering Netflix/Hulu, cable television, Kinect control options, movie/tv rentals and purchases, etc. They were trying to make televisions "smart" long before anyone coined the phrase "smart television".