I think it will do better than the PS3 because all first party Sony studios are in OVERDRIVE mode since 2009. And Also, it will do better than PSVITA because most of Sony first party dont give a crap about the VITA sadly, but they care a lot for the PS main console. So I think that in the first year alone the PS4 will get U4, GG game and SSM new IP. That will provide good sales the first year.

It was my understanding that the xbox gets the versions of multiplats with the better optimization and the less bugs, as well as often getting exclusive DLC. I was suspecting that that was true because A) MS moneyhats them, B) the 360 is more dev-friendly, C) The 360 has a greater marketshare.

All three of those are true for this gen. Next time around however, at least at the start, they will only have A). It's really up in the air on which system will 3rd parties cater too first.

the ps4 will sell a lot better then the ps3 in the frist few months. the price killed the ps3. if the ps3 was 399 then every body would have got one

@ Jwein

You seem to be under the assumption that casual gamers (especially online gamers) will be satisfied with a tablet. I seriously doubt that will be true. You also assume that most of the world can't afford multiple expensive devices. I also doubt that to be true. If the products are all highly desired, and provide different experiences, then they won't eat into each others sales. When has one product ever harmed another product when their similarities was only the fact that they were electronics?

Games like Farmville, Angry Bird, Temple Run, etc., aren't going be enough persuasion for someone to stop playing CoD, Halo, GT, etc. Historically speaking, one device has never directly harmed the sales of another device UNLESS the new device provided an experience that was superior to the previous device. That Isnt the case with the iPad. Other than simply being electronics, they aren't direct competitors.

Besides, the existence of a tablet can be countered by the lack of Wii purchases.

The big releases are the same every year: Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and maybe a Sony and Microsoft exclusive. That's always been the case and I don't see how 2012 is any different. The rest of the year is typically showered with small-medium which 2012 also had a lot of. Hitman, Sleeping Dogs, Dishonored, Max Payne, etc. (All games which haven't released this gen; some if which are new IPs) 2012 wasn't much different than previous years in terms of software, yet software and hardware sales were still down MASSIVELY. This year is already much worse with the consoles already down 50%. The PS3 and 360 are dying and no software will change that. It's an inevitability of console generations.

I'm interested in your thought process here. Are you expecting some kind of resurgence for the PS360 here? Current trends are pointing to the PS3 & 360 being irrelevant by 2014/2015, and new consoles haven't even been announced yet. Are you expecting sales for these consoles to magically fight gravity and reach sustainable levels?

Expecting the PS3 & 360 to even stay relevant when the next gen consoles release is highly flawed imo. Consumers are bored of this generation, and more software won't change that. And expecting tablets to cause a huge dent in console gaming is also unlikely. As I said before, never in history has an electronic device harmed another electronic device's sales unless it adequately performed the function of the original device.

I agree to an extent. I think Sony will launch pretty expensive to begin with and the console will be a slow burner. But I think it has the potential to take off better than the PS3. Many of the factors Jay mentioned (first-party appearances; better marketing; a high but more reasonable price) will make it a more justifiable purchase for many people.

That said, they're not coming off the back of the phenomenon that was PS2, so who's to say how the first year will go? At least PS3 has more steam than the competition at the moment to keep it going forward, but barely.

I hope it does alright anyway. Like I've said in a few places around here lately, I think the SCE from 2009 onwards have the potential to release a successful console, much more than the SCE of 2005/2006.

NextXbox will comes with the new and better kinect so i don't see how cheap the NextXbox will be too...

both will probably end up around US$400+

No, I'm not saying that people will be satisfied with a tablet for gaming.  I'm saying that the desire for a tablet will outweigh the desire for a new gaming console.  Basically, Timmy has to make his birthday wish list.  Does he want an X-Box 720, or an iPad mini?  However you want to slice it, funds for everyone are limited and if someone spends 400 dollars on an ipad, they're less likely to spend that on a new console.  For example, I bought a PS3 earlier this year (my old one died).  But as I used it, I realized I needed a new phone (broke) and I could use a new computer.  I returned the PS3.  It's not that I thought the phone and/or computer would be better for gaming, it's just that my funds were limited.  I had to make a choice.  

I'm not sure what you mean by countering the existence of tablets.  Not trying to be an ass but I'm assuming that was a typo and I don't get what it was supposed to mean.

Last year actually had quite a few more big games.  Uncharted 3, Infamous 2, Saints Row 3, Skyward Sword, Skylanders (which at the time was exciting and new), Battlefield 3, Arkham City, Skyrim.  Tons of stuff.  Plus, the Wii was still alive with Mario and Sonic and Mario Sports Mix performing well, and the novelty of the Kinect hadn't entirely worn off yet.

I don't expect the 360 and PS3 to see a revival, I'm just expecting a continual slump for the industry, aside from the Wii U if Nintendo provides software.  The key is this; why will the X-Box 720 and PS4 revive the market?

That's the point I seem to be losing you on.  The 720 and PS4 can have great success, but only if they provide new and exciting experiences.  You're approaching this from the point of a hardcore gamer who NEEDS to have the newest and shiniest toy on day one.  I bought the Wii U on day one because it was new, it said Nintendo, and it played games.  But most people aren't like that.  Most people don't have that NEED for something new to play.  Yes, gamers are bored with the games they're getting now, but that does not mean they're going to rush out and buy the next new console.  Being new is not enough.  Wii fans didn't rush out to buy the Wii U because it was new, nor did PSP fans rush out to buy the Vita because it was new, nor did DS fans rush out to buy the 3DS because it was new.

New is not enough.  So, the question is this.  What are the 720 and PS4 going to do that's going to make the 360 and PS3 irrelevant?  What games are those systems going to have that's going to make people say "I'm going to take this 400-500 and use it to buy a PS4 instead of just playing the next COD on my PS4"?  I don't think that the PS4 and 720 are going to do anything special enough to reenergize the industry, at least not for a year or two.

When you see that there is a touchscreen in the controller, your tune will change....

There is no data that supports the argument of tablets harming console gaming. I can’t think of a single moment in history where one product harmed another product even though it didn’t adequately perform the same functions as the older product. Can you provide any examples of this? If you cannot, then your prediction can only be considered a hunch and nothing more.

You said tablets would harm console gaming because people would spend money on tablets and wouldn’t have money for consoles. Your logic is based on the fact that spending money on one product would prevent the purchase of another product. Using your same logic, I can say that the lack of money spent on a Nintendo products this generation will result in more purchases for something else.

Last generation, a large portion of consumers spent money on consoles, wii-motes, accessories, and of course games, lots of games. But this generation will see much fewer consumers spending money on those Nintendo products (or at least that’s what the trends suggests). This should result in more money for consumers, thus increasing PS4’s sales. My example should be more applicable since Nintendo consoles are in much more direct competition with the Ps3 and PS4 than tablets. And if this doesn't directly improve PS4 sales, it should at least negate the additional money spent on tablets, rendering their impact on the PS4 to virtually zero.

It is true that 2011 was big. But you must remember 2011 was an exception and not the rule. There usually aren’t that many big games released a year. Look at years 2008-2010 for the PS3 & 360 and suddenly 2012 would look pretty good by comparison. For the sake of discussion, I’ll concede that 2012 had a very weak library. If that’s true, and 2012 experienced an uncharacteristic drop in big games, then that’s a sign that developers and publishers are anticipating a big transition into next generation and will devote a fair amount of resources into it; which does not support your point.

My argument to you is not that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I’m disagreeing with your reasons explaining why it will have a slow start. You are making the argument that the PS3 & 360 are going to contribute to low sales of the PS4, which can only happen if the PS360 remain relevant. This doesn’t appear that it’s going to happen looking at the massive drops in sales and general interest. Because all trends are pointing to the PS360 reaching irrelevancy, you must be expecting some kind of revival if you expect them to remain relevant enough to harm the PS4.

Again, I am NOT arguing (at least to you) that the PS4 will not have a slow start. I am arguing against your reasons for believing that they will. Your tablet reasoning is unsubstantiated because we have no data of products harming other products even though they perform vastly different functions. And your argument that the PS3 & 360 will harm the PS4 is also flawed imo because their relevancy is dwindling on zero.