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How can Nintendo gamers even talk about other system failing?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How can Nintendo gamers even talk about other system failing?

Aielyn said:
Now, since people seem to be forgetting something, I'm going to bring it back to the foreground, again.

The Wii U is showing a lot of similarity to another console. This console launched first in its generation, it had a reasonable holiday, but sold just 1.6 million units to the 21st of January, after having launched in November. At that point in time, the system had sold 3.4 million units of software (the Wii U is at 5 million units of software). Many of the launch titles of this system were ports of games from the previous generation, and in its first full year, it sold a little over 5 million units.

Almost exactly a year after launch, this system got a major game release. Sales increased markedly at this point, and more games began to come out, many being games shared with the other consoles of its generation, which had just released. And while one of those other two systems would go on to break records, this system would manage to stay ahead of the third system for the rest of its generation, despite that other system having brand recognition from the previous generation.

The system was the Xbox 360. It is currently approaching 74 million units sold.

Why am I drawing this connection? For one thing, when the Wii burst out of the gate so strongly, and the PS3 had stronger launch sales than the 360, people started to predict the failure of the 360, too. The popular view was that the PS3 was going to bring in all of the people who bought a PS2, while the Wii was going to be a hit with "teh cazualz", leaving the 360 with scraps. People mocked the fact that the 360 only managed 5 million sales in its first year.

And the message is that you shouldn't be counting any of them out. Not the Wii U, not the Vita. The 3DS has already shown why counting a system out based on early sales is a bad idea. So, too, has the 360.

Stop predicting doom. For ANY of the consoles currently on the market. It's childish, and it's almost certainly wrong. I will admit that, 6 years ago, I had a different mindset with regards to the Wii vs the other consoles. And I freely admit, I was wrong.

It's time for gamers to grow up. This stupid "console war" mentality is getting in the way of a pastime that is supposed to be about fun. If you're a "Nintendo gamer", get positive about the Wii U and the 3DS, but don't get negative about the other systems. If you're a "Sony gamer", root for the Vita to grow and sell much better in the next few months, and hope for a great PS4 that makes a strong profit for Sony from launch while providing games that you couldn't have seen on the PS3... but also hope for the Wii U to see better success, simply because it'll mean more games for more systems, and a greater variety of systems to choose from. And if you're a "Microsoft gamer", by all means, put all your feeling into the desire to see the next MS console break records while bringing you incredible games including some great exclusives. But don't get all nasty about Vita's performance, or predict the Wii U's quick demise.

This new generation has the potential to be the first one in which all three systems bring something distinctly different to the table. Microsoft is certainly pushing Kinect, and it's likely to be a significant part of their new console. Sony appear to be focusing more on traditional gameplay, with some Move worked in, while Nintendo is diversifying with their Upad. Let's celebrate the differences, and hope for all three to find great success, rather than seeking to knock each other down.

Great post, but sadly I think you're asking for lot more maturity than a large proportion of gamers have. Honestly, it's no wonder gamers are still looked down on, the way so many of us behave. (Thinking of the knd of stuff you read in comments on sites like N4G, IGN, and gamefaqs) Hopefully one day we will grow up as a fanbase, and all this childish drivel will simmer down.



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pezus said:
So you think it won't keep dropping?

Regarding the number of weeks, you only mentioned Feb, March and April so the 13 weeks are for that. Very well, let's add one or two weeks.

Sales don't usually increase between January and March

Monster Hunter is already out in the most important MH region (Japan). Dragon Quest is a Wii port etc. So it's not much different from the ports/games already out. PS3/360 are dropping because they're old, not because of the market.

I very much expect the last week of data to be an outlier, and that it'll rest somewhere around 50k for the next few weeks. And sales usually increase for Nintendo systems between January and March... more importantly, IN March (or April). And I said 6 calendar months, which goes to the end of April. Since the data we have is to 19th of January, I counted from there to the end of April.

Monster Hunter in the west is likely to do fairly well -  the Wii version is the best-selling Monster Hunter in North America, and the second-best-selling in Europe. Considering that the game has sold to more than a quarter of Japanese Wii U owners, I think it's safe to say that it should provide a decent bump in the west. Not huge, mind you - but a healthy 50k over 2-3 weeks.

Dragon Quest is NOT a Wii port. The game was in development for Wii and Wii U simultaneously. And based on sales of the Wii version in Japan, it looks like a fair few Japanese people were likely to have been waiting for the Wii U version, considering that the previous two games, on PS2 and DS, both sold over 3.5 million copies. I think we could easily see a 200k bump to the Wii U from Japan over a couple of weeks.

And the PS3 and 360 are dropping due to insufficient major titles to drive sales. Same as Wii U. Same as Wii. Same as 3DS right now. Many people are looking at PS3/360 games and going "where's the Wii U version?"... but what they're not actually noticing is how few major PS3/360 titles there are, either. It's not unexpected, of course - the first few months of a new console are always slim pickings, and support for older consoles always draws back as their successors approach.



Aielyn said:
UncleScrooge said:

I didn't say that the Wii U would sell another 2.5 million in the next two months. I said that you can't say "it's below the Gamecube, which sold 5 million a year for the first few years" because it's done half of that in its first two months - it's not unreasonable to expect it to manage the same amount in the remaining 10 months. The Wii U is currently selling 39k per week (what is it with you guys and lowballing every single number, when we have EXACT numbers available?). If it were to stay this low (very unlikely - every console has a slow period in the first few months after launch), it would have 43 weeks left at 39k per week, or 1.7 million. But of course, the year includes the early holiday period, which typically kicks in in October. And in the meantime, there's going to be bumps from Lego City Undercover, Rayman Legends, Wii Fit U, Game & Wario, The Wonderful 101, probably Wind Waker HD (assuming they're keeping Mario 3D for November, Wind Waker HD will probably be September), Pikmin 3, probably Bayonetta 2, Wii Party U, and possibly even Mario Kart U (assuming that Wind Waker is September and Mario 3D is November, Mario Kart U may be October), Monster Hunter Tri Ultimate, and Dragon Quest X in Japan (and possibly elsewhere), all of which are exclusives or effectively exclusives. Is there any doubt that these games are going to spur sales? And of course, that's not going to be the entire lineup for the Wii U for the next 10 months.

It's easy to judge a system based on a single week. It's funny how fickle people on here really are. There really is no reason to expect that the rate of sales in one week in January, the ONLY week so far to be below 50k, will be above the average for the remainder of the year. And what's worse, you and everyone else who goes "Wii U will only sell like 30k a week from now on" know this, too. You're just being intentionally obtuse, and it's childish.

Which part of the word "currently" is it that you didn't understand? Was it the current? Or the "ly?" I expect the Wii U to do 10m units this year and I've said this in other threads as well. That doesn't change the fact that current sales are below Gamecube level. And I'm not talking about a single week but the whole of January. It's funny you think I'm intentionally bashing the system or something. I'm a huge Nintendo fan and bought the Wii U on launch day (I also bought the N64 at launch, the Gamecube, the DS and the Wii). I have no reason to badmouth the system. I want it to succeed. But that doesn't change the fact that sales of the console dropped like a rock after a decent launch period. 

Again, what I said was people who think the Vita or Wii U "just need some time" are wrong. Of course Mario Kart and such will boost sales. Sales will increase and I expect the situation in late 2013 to look much different than it does today - the other next gen consoles will be the new and expensive system without games and the Wii U will be cheaper with a bigger software library. But sales won't increase dramatically. Going from a consoles that sold almost 20m units a year to a console that will barely crack 10m a year is a huge step down. And the 3DS only sold 13m in 2012 - still people on this site continue to praise the system's sales like it was a huge hit. Heck, the Vita sold 3.5m units last year and people say "wait for next christmas to judge the system"  

What Nintendo needs to do is position the Wii U as the actual successor to the Wii - they need to get mass market friendly again, produce games like Wii Sports, get the female gamers back and stop focusing on "hardcore" games or third party support. 

Before you can change your situation you have to admit you got yourself into trouble. That's always the first step towards future success. And that's what I want Nintendo to do. 



UncleScrooge said:

Again, what I said was people who think the Vita or Wii U "just need some time" are wrong. Of course Mario Kart and such will boost sales. Sales will increase and I expect the situation in late 2013 to look much different than it does today - the other next gen consoles will be the new and expensive system without games and the Wii U will be cheaper with a bigger software library. But sales won't increase dramatically. Going from a consoles that sold almost 20m units a year to a console that will barely crack 10m a year is a huge step down. And the 3DS only sold 13m in 2012 - still people on this site continue to praise the system's sales like it was a huge hit. Heck, the Vita sold 3.5m units last year and people say "wait for next christmas to judge the system"  

What Nintendo needs to do is position the Wii U as the actual successor to the Wii - they need to get mass market friendly again, produce games like Wii Sports, get the female gamers back and stop focusing on "hardcore" games or third party support. 

Before you can change your situation you have to admit you got yourself into trouble. That's always the first step towards future success. And that's what I want Nintendo to do. 

I disagree on the bold; once it has Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Bayonetta 2, the new Xeno game, etc, I expect sales will pick up hugely; let's face it, weekly sales right now are crappy that there' plenty of room for a dramatic increase. ;)

I do agree however that they need to win back the casual crowd, but that will be very hard to do at the current price tag, casuals tend to have a lower price range. How would you suggest they do it?



Aielyn said:

It's time for gamers to grow up. This stupid "console war" mentality is getting in the way of a pastime that is supposed to be about fun. If you're a "Nintendo gamer", get positive about the Wii U and the 3DS, but don't get negative about the other systems. If you're a "Sony gamer", root for the Vita to grow and sell much better in the next few months, and hope for a great PS4 that makes a strong profit for Sony from launch while providing games that you couldn't have seen on the PS3... but also hope for the Wii U to see better success, simply because it'll mean more games for more systems, and a greater variety of systems to choose from. And if you're a "Microsoft gamer", by all means, put all your feeling into the desire to see the next MS console break records while bringing you incredible games including some great exclusives. But don't get all nasty about Vita's performance, or predict the Wii U's quick demise.

See, this is where your thinking is wrong. You think just because people are criticising something they have to hate it. That's not true. If you really love something you have to criticise it. That's the only way you can improve, not only in business but in life. If you hate something - don't criticise it at all. Ignoring something is the worst blow you can deal to it. (And no, that was not me trying to lecture you it was just how I see things personally and expaining why I wrote what I wrote)

I respect your opinion and appreciate your effort to fight stupid mentalities and I know there's a lot of childish people out there. But you shouldn't be that quick to judge people and tell them to "grow up". I'll just leave it at that. There's more than enough discussions going on as it is. 



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The Wii was a major success, the 3DS is a success too, and the Wii U just came out. The Vita has been given over a year to succeed and it has not.



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Jon-Erich said:
spurgeonryan said:

When the Wii U is in the state it is in. The 3DS is just finally fully recovering from a disasterous blanch, and the Wii went out with a whimper.

 

Does it make them feel better?

Sigh....Wii U passed the 3 million mark last week and will most likely pass PS Vita before March 31st. 


That's an interesting one.  The 3 million is shipped to retailers, no?

And even accounting for some undertracking here on VGChartz, you think Nintendo are going to sell ~ 1.5 million more Wii-U's in 2 months than Sony are going to sell Vita's, considering the gap was 10k last week and 15k the week before?

Over the initial launch period when the console was still doing quite well, I think multiple people were predicting that Wii-U would overtake Vita before the end of March.  That really seems like a pipe dream at the moment.  Aside from Dragon Quest, which hasn't even been given a release date, there is nothing for Japan (and even Dragon Quest is a Wii port).  Rayman Legends & LEGO City Undercover may help in the west, but they're going to have to be advertised pretty damn well to help sell 1.5 million Wii-U's.

I think it's inevitable that Wii-U is going to pass Vita at some point.  But the idea that it'll pass before March seems a little absurd by now.  Unless you were talking about March 31st 2014 of course, which seems much more realistic!



UncleScrooge said:
See, this is where your thinking is wrong. You think just because people are criticising something they have to hate it. That's not true. If you really love something you have to criticise it. That's the only way you can improve, not only in business but in life. If you hate something - don't criticise it at all. Ignoring something is the worst blow you can deal to it. (And no, that was not me trying to lecture you it was just how I see things personally and expaining why I wrote what I wrote)

I respect your opinion and appreciate your effort to fight stupid mentalities and I know there's a lot of childish people out there. But you shouldn't be that quick to judge people and tell them to "grow up". I'll just leave it at that. There's more than enough discussions going on as it is.

There's criticism, and then there's what I'm talking about. A person can go "Wii U lacks any software that interests me, or people like me", and that's a criticism. But what I'm talking about is when the person goes "Wii U is going to fail because it's never going to get any 3rd party support because the Wii U is a last-gen system". That's not criticism, that's childishness. And it's rampant here and elsewhere on the net.

The exact same sort of behaviour is also being seen with regards to the Vita. Indeed, between the Wii U and the Vita, you've probably got upwards of 100 threads here on VGChartz in the last 4 months predicting "DOOM", consistently on a childish basis, with people actually taking glee from a system struggling.

It wasn't by accident that I said all of that in a post that wasn't a response to any particular person. That's because I'm not responding to a particular person when I say it. The whole point of that post was to emphasise how stupid it is to talk like that about any system.



curl-6 said:
UncleScrooge said:

Again, what I said was people who think the Vita or Wii U "just need some time" are wrong. Of course Mario Kart and such will boost sales. Sales will increase and I expect the situation in late 2013 to look much different than it does today - the other next gen consoles will be the new and expensive system without games and the Wii U will be cheaper with a bigger software library. But sales won't increase dramatically. Going from a consoles that sold almost 20m units a year to a console that will barely crack 10m a year is a huge step down. And the 3DS only sold 13m in 2012 - still people on this site continue to praise the system's sales like it was a huge hit. Heck, the Vita sold 3.5m units last year and people say "wait for next christmas to judge the system"  

What Nintendo needs to do is position the Wii U as the actual successor to the Wii - they need to get mass market friendly again, produce games like Wii Sports, get the female gamers back and stop focusing on "hardcore" games or third party support. 

Before you can change your situation you have to admit you got yourself into trouble. That's always the first step towards future success. And that's what I want Nintendo to do. 

I disagree on the bold; once it has Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Bayonetta 2, the new Xeno game, etc, I expect sales will pick up hugely; let's face it, weekly sales right now are crappy that there' plenty of room for a dramatic increase. ;)

I do agree however that they need to win back the casual crowd, but that will be very hard to do at the current price tag, casuals tend to have a lower price range. How would you suggest they do it?


Those are the same arguments that were used to prove that the Wii was going to bounce back from the decline, the games and the peripherals that were coming soon and while there is room for improvement, there is little evidence that it will occurr any time soon, comparing the Wii U to the 360, for instance, is worthless, they are two entirely different consoles in entirely different circumstances made by two companies from different worlds. Comparing it to the 3DS is equally futile, again these are entirely different cirumstances, one would think that people would have learned by now that history with vague similarity, fancy graphs and aligned launches are a poor indicator of the future. I guess not.

Winning back the casual crowd will be impossible, the product itself is designed from the bottom with major faults that ensures it will never fully entice casuals or core gamers. Some bad and hasty decisions have been made regarding the Wii U and its current sales situation was entirely predictable based on these. The price tag is fine, have you seen the going rate for iPad's and iPhones's and the competition? Casuals are fine dosing out the dough for these and playing games on them and that's Nintendo's problem now; the Wii mainly lived off of a market that has all but disappeared from the home console base and won't come back, social gaming, tablets and smartphones has wooed this crowd and taken them in completely and the very nature, bulk and appeal of the home console goes against the new casual consumer philosophy. The market has gone and left Nintendo behind (and will do the same to Sony and MS if they don't respond accordingly), they have trouble adjusting to a market they do not dictate, as we've seen since the end of the SNES era and with the decline of the Wii and their tech efforts with the Wii U is too little too late and aimed in the wrong direction.

If Sony and MS are stupid enough to chase the casual userbase with their new consoles, they are headed for a small disaster and will quickly hit the wall, this is likely the reason why none of them feel overly stressed by Nintendo launching first, they wanted to see the market response to the Wii U and certainly plan accordingly. I've been saying a couple of things for some time now and I will repeat them; the Wii U will not be anywhere near as successful as the Wii (which is obvious now) and will have a shorter lifespan and; the 8th generation will be shorter than the 7th and see a historical first, a decline in hardware and software totals for the generation, meaning that I have small faith in any massive selling power from MS and Sony as well. The PS2 with its incredible marketshare and monstrous hardware and software sales was a one-off, it will never happen again in home console history, the market has changed dramatically and irreversibly (if this is for the better though, is hard to say).

Claiming that the Wii U will do Gamecube numbers in the end is folly in my opinion but thinking it will do 360 numbers is equally unrealistic, somewhere in the middle is the most likely for now.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

hey spurg
if i can put my two cents
I DONT talk about other systems failing
how xbox and playstation do is not my problem
i just want to enjoy my games in peace without hearing about doom and gloom on the internet
I enjoyed being a gamer a lot more before deciding to talk to other people about it