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Locked: My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Forums - Sales Discussion - My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one...


First, the Balance Wii Board, the peripheral that's included with Wii Fit. The magazine noted that Wii Fit has been quite the success story for Nintendo so far. To this, Miyamoto responded that if the game sees success overseas as well, Nintendo may end up releasing separate titles that make use of the peripheral.

 

http://wii.ign.com/articles/848/848543p1.html

 

Think of it mummel, a whole line of games that use the balance board, Fitness games, sports games, adventure games, shooters


 Many attempts at similar things have been made in arcades among other things, and never really caught on, I can't see it magically becoming the most popular item in the world. It has potential, but not unlimited potential.


 Except most things don't seel like Wii fit, which is showing stronger legs than even Wii sports in japan, already nintendo has a million plus base, heading for two, that's a great starting point, and by the end of summer they'll probably have almost 10 million if similar strenght occurs in NA and Europe ,the further games will propel Wii fit sales even further, it will be like the Wii a self perpetuating cycle



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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I guess there's only one tool for our job, Avinash; time!
I am truthfully excited to see how WiiFit will do in EU and NA, I have a feeling it'll be quite a hit in NA at least.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one...

@Claude; Nintendo are really more rehashers than the others, simply by betting all their money on Mario after 24 years, so I don't call that fresh thinking or innovation. Yes, both the 360 and the PS3 are rehashes, but at least they're making technological leaps in the process, which to me is important. In my honest opinion; this gen is the prime reason I'm becoming more and more of a PC gamer, I don't fancy any of the current consoles to the extent that I have done before. Nintendo's attempts at new IP's have had very dissapointing results, whereas both the 360 and the PS3 have had a few hits with brand new franchises (Assassin's Creed, Bioshock, Gears of War and Resistance spring to mind), and the attach rates of these games far surpass that of Zack & Wicki for instance, and that tells me one thing; Nintendo buyers don't mind getting the same games in new form instead of something new, so Nintendo won't even make an effort to bring any. And, as people will see after this year, almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and it's control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles, and that is a very sad thought to me as a longtime Nintendo fan!

Sorry i don't agree with any of your points here. Though i know its your opinion just here me out.

A lot of people have been saying Nintendo has been depending on mario for far too long, but he is thier mascot, the face of Nintendo, like Micky of Disney. No Mario game has been the same to date. The same character but, same story, buyt different game (or shall i say game machanics). But the truth is, Nintendo have been steadily making New IP from the days of the GC. I hate List warz and stuff, but we have Pikmen, which only begun Last Gen, Nintendogs, wii Fit, Sports, The Dr Kawashima guy, The new Disaster IP, and i am pretty sure a lot more on the way. Now to be fair half of that list is for the new non tradiotnal gamer crowd, but that does not make them less relevent. But i can undersatand if Nintendo's new direction does put you off, it seems to be putting a lot of gamers off, I for one like it though. If anything, this time they don't need mario at all, And they would not keep releasing his games if it was not such a high demanded game.

Edit: And 2 games which look like they are getting a decent Budget and a good crew behind them are Monster Hunter and Fatal frame. I know they are only 2 games, but thats a start and mutch better than last year when the Wii was getting practically nothing but Nintendos efforts. I Think after a little while longer you may start to change your opinion and warm up to Nintendo. As they said, gaming was declining in terms of the amount of consumers interested,and if the Wii did not exist, and the 360 and PS3 was selling the same amount, we would be hearing how gaming is dying IMO.

I like you and the contribution you add to this site, i think you are one of the few well thought out individuals on this site.



Nintendo & Sony Supporter

Currently own- DS, PSP, PS2, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3 DreamCast.

Man i have too many consoles..... 

Quotes to live by!

"Life is either a daring adventure or nothing"- Helen Keller

"i am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward"-Thomas Edison

"Man is not the creature of circumstancesCircumstances are the creatures of men"


^Yep, totally agree-If Sony had Mario, they would put him in every other game too

Anyways, I'd say 15million + for SMG



Fatal Frame does indeed sound promising, and Monster Hunter is a very big title as well! What I really want to see is a slew of cool games that nail the Wiimote's capacity and make me go "YAY!".
I do think (and to an extent know) that these games are inbound, only there are too few imo.
Many developers (like EA) will make horrid games simply for quick cash, and many titles may be very good in one or two segments.
I want games that A: Look good (think RE4 Wii edition), B: Play well (MP3), and C: Have basis in themes and/or genres that are more appealing to us gamers (again, like those mentioned before).
Nintendo is among (if not the best) the best game developers in the world, but their efforts alone will not stave gamer complaints about the lack of hits outside Mario, Zelda and other major and aging Ninty franchises.
I trust Capcom, Square Enix, Sega and Bandai to turn the 3rd party wave into something positive rather than just a global ATM for lackluster dev's such as EA.
The minute that happens; I'm getting a Wii!

PS: Did you guys know that Mario is featured in more than 200 videogames? It's true.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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Anyone gets bonus points in my book for

1) Writing coherent posts
2) Not making personal attacks/name calling
3) Making concrete predicitions and not putting them "under the rug" when they fail

and you get for all three.


And I do admit my predicitions are also coloured by what I want from the industry. I'd rather have Wii Fit 2 and Redicously More Brain Training than Halo 4.



Mummelmann said:

It seems I have grossly underestimated the legs of SMG, hat's off and congrats on a new hit Mario game! It will reach more than 7 million lt, perhaps closer to 10.

Anyone else wanna fess up while we're at it? 


First of all, I want to give you a round of applause for being man enough to admit that you might be wrong *applauses* Second, I must admit I was also a little sceptical about SMG beating Halo 3, and at this rate, I will probably be wrong. :/

Mummelmann said:

Fatal Frame does indeed sound promising, and Monster Hunter is a very big title as well! What I really want to see is a slew of cool games that nail the Wiimote's capacity and make me go "YAY!".
I do think (and to an extent know) that these games are inbound, only there are too few imo.
Many developers (like EA) will make horrid games simply for quick cash, and many titles may be very good in one or two segments.
I want games that A: Look good (think RE4 Wii edition), B: Play well (MP3), and C: Have basis in themes and/or genres that are more appealing to us gamers (again, like those mentioned before).
Nintendo is among (if not the best) the best game developers in the world, but their efforts alone will not stave gamer complaints about the lack of hits outside Mario, Zelda and other major and aging Ninty franchises.
I trust Capcom, Square Enix, Sega and Bandai to turn the 3rd party wave into something positive rather than just a global ATM for lackluster dev's such as EA.
The minute that happens; I'm getting a Wii!

PS: Did you guys know that Mario is featured in more than 200 videogames? It's true.

 Those games you want will come, but the thing is the wiimote's potential has barely struck the surface. It will take time, even to some point nintendo are finding it a little hard to take it to the next level, but the will and they are . Right now a lot of games just use waggle, i think that situation will change, it has to, and those companies you mentioned allong with nintendo will do it, well apart from EA (they suck!!). 

 



Nintendo & Sony Supporter

Currently own- DS, PSP, PS2, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3 DreamCast.

Man i have too many consoles..... 

Quotes to live by!

"Life is either a daring adventure or nothing"- Helen Keller

"i am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward"-Thomas Edison

"Man is not the creature of circumstancesCircumstances are the creatures of men"


LoL, even i expect SMG to reach 7 mln. LTD. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Yeah... i expected 5 - 8M



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