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Locked: My SMG prediction is looking grim...

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Nice crow eating thread, mummelman. Good to see some can admit when they underestimated the power of the dark side. Your MP3 prediction isn't too bold, however, considering that he Prime series as a whole will be lucky to hit 7 million (and that includes Hunters and Pinball). While there are some hardcore Metroid players around here that hyped the game (myself included) we are not in the majority. On a brighter note....it looks like MP3 will pass MP2: Echoes.



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I was off by about 1.5-2mil on all of my sales predictions to the end of 2007 (for wii, 360 and ps3)



SMG LT sales will not pass 7 million, neither will MP3 or SSBB. Mario Kart will top out at roughly 12 million this gen and be the best selling Wii game besides the bundled ones. (MP3 still won't make it imo, maybe half, SSBB is still a shot in the dark, but SMG will most certainly pass 7 and maybe onto 9 or10)


I don't really understand why MP3 is in there, 7 million doesn't make sense as a ceiling for it. Metroid sells respectable amounts but it's not some massive Mario or Zelda seller, no single game as passed the 3 million mark so shooting up to 7 million just comes off as odd to me. It's like saying DMC4 won't hit 6 million on the PS3 and then realizing that no other DMC has even come close to those numbers.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

Wii Code (NTSC): 8319 5826 5461 1313     Brawl Code (Claud): 5284-1064-4130

Mummelmann said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
i didn't realise those predictions in your sig were serious...

I exist to keep things on ground level. Consider me the tethers below the gaming sky...

I know I won't hit with all (or even most), it is more based on the direction I'd hope the market would take; i.e force Nintendo to come up with something truly awesome and brand spanking new rather than toss around the same franchises for 20+ years and let it scrub. The way I see it, the Wii is a rehashed GC with motion controls and far from a revolution. I guess you could say that I miss the old days, when Ultima series was rockin' the PC's and SNES was modern day fare. I'm nostalgic, and I don't like where gamign is headed (way to mainstream). I can see gaming getting corrupted and wilt and rot away like the movie and music industries, and this is my greatest fear as a gamer.

There you have it... From an old fashioned and experienced gamer.

Considering the endless FPS dribble popping up on both 360 and PS3, I don't think it's Nintendo that needs to come up with something truly awesome and brand spanking new considering that they're the only ones doing it on a daily basis. I also don't understand attacking the Wiifor being a "rehashed GC," it's like exempting Sony and Microsoft from criticism because they rehashed by default. You can't atatck the only person that's doing something different by complaining that it's not different enough when the competiton isn't doing anything at all.

 



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

Wii Code (NTSC): 8319 5826 5461 1313     Brawl Code (Claud): 5284-1064-4130

You underestimate ho many units the Wii will have sold in the end. 15-20 million on SMG in 5 years.



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Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one...

@Claude; Nintendo are really more rehashers than the others, simply by betting all their money on Mario after 24 years, so I don't call that fresh thinking or innovation. Yes, both the 360 and the PS3 are rehashes, but at least they're making technological leaps in the process, which to me is important. In my honest opinion; this gen is the prime reason I'm becoming more and more of a PC gamer, I don't fancy any of the current consoles to the extent that I have done before. Nintendo's attempts at new IP's have had very dissapointing results, whereas both the 360 and the PS3 have had a few hits with brand new franchises (Assassin's Creed, Bioshock, Gears of War and Resistance spring to mind), and the attach rates of these games far surpass that of Zack & Wicki for instance, and that tells me one thing; Nintendo buyers don't mind getting the same games in new form instead of something new, so Nintendo won't even make an effort to bring any. And, as people will see after this year, almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and it's control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles, and that is a very sad thought to me as a longtime Nintendo fan!



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:

@Claude; Nintendo are really more rehashers than the others, simply by betting all their money on Mario after 24 years, so I don't call that fresh thinking or innovation. Yes, both the 360 and the PS3 are rehashes, but at least they're making technological leaps in the process, which to me is important.

I don't really see how they can bet all their money on Mario when people keep bitching about them betting all their money on Zelda/Pokemon/Wii series/etc. So basically as long as it's successful and has at least one sequel, it's rehashed, they're betting all their money on it, it's evil, not innovative, and needs to die. Okay, gotcha.

I also don't really see how Graphics increase #18 is "more important" than graphics increase #17. It's pretty much a given, all the consoles made a leap, it happens every generation. It's an endless cycle. But I'd like to think a new input device were more important than an arbitrary graphical increase that was bound to happen.

In my honest opinion; this gen is the prime reason I'm becoming more and more of a PC gamer, I don't fancy any of the current consoles to the extent that I have done before. Nintendo's attempts at new IP's have had very dissapointing results, whereas both the 360 and the PS3 have had a few hits with brand new franchises (Assassin's Creed, Bioshock, Gears of War and Resistance spring to mind), and the attach rates of these games far surpass that of Zack & Wicki for instance, and that tells me one thing; Nintendo buyers don't mind getting the same games in new form instead of something new, so Nintendo won't even make an effort to bring any.

Wait, wait. Let me get this straight. Nintendo's new IP's have been disappointing even though you said they don't make new IPs and "bet on Mario" constantly with no other franchises in existence ever. Then, you proceed to claim that "Nintendo buyers don't mind getting the same games in a new form" by citing attach rates of a budget title so niche Capcom couldn't get stores to stock it vs. a bunch of shooters with a new coat of paint? Are you freaking serious?

I don't know how to describe you. It's like you want your opinions and conclusions to be based in reality, but you set yourself up for diaster with some of the most absurd claims and comparisons I've seen on this site, all backed by delusions stretched far beyond the truth. You're not quite at Crazzyman levels, but I mean really, Resistance, a multi-million dollar FPS launch title Sony used to trumpet the PS3 vs. Zack & Wiki, a niche point and click puzzle budget title? What's next? Endless Ocean vs. Call of Duty 4?

I mean, if you can scream about a critically acclaimed Mario title that took 6 years to get here somehow dooming the Wii and somehow "proving" that all Wii owners only like rehashes, where the HELL is the outrage over War Shooter #3453 - er, I mean, Call of Duty 4 completely shitting on titles like Ratchet & Clank and Eternal Sonata?

And, as people will see after this year, almost none of the 3rd parties will take the Wii and it's control scheme seriously, they'll simply use the platform to earn quick money on with low quality titles, and that is a very sad thought to me as a longtime Nintendo fan!

And, as people will see after this year, all 360's will finally RRoD beyond repair when trying to play another but another typical FPS, an PS3 will flop off the market because all the 3rd parties supporting it will shut down due to insanely high development costs.

See! I can make offensively absurd claims about other consoles too!

 



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

Wii Code (NTSC): 8319 5826 5461 1313     Brawl Code (Claud): 5284-1064-4130

Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one... 


First, the Balance Wii Board, the peripheral that's included with Wii Fit. The magazine noted that Wii Fit has been quite the success story for Nintendo so far. To this, Miyamoto responded that if the game sees success overseas as well, Nintendo may end up releasing separate titles that make use of the peripheral.

 

http://wii.ign.com/articles/848/848543p1.html

 

Think of it mummel, a whole line of games that use the balance board,  Fitness games, sports games, adventure games, shooters



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Point out the absurd claims and conclusions if they're so wild, seem seasy enough. And where the hell did I state that the "Wii is doomed"? I've never said such a thing, I've always maintained that it'll easily sell the most this gen!
I don't know why, but you're getting really personal as of late, and none of the other senior users make these assaults and frantic attacks on every bit of reasoning that I try to concoct.
Does it really offend you that much to have someone with different opinions on forums you frequent? Are you're opinions better because you say so?
This is the typical internet forum setup, where everyone is an expert and make analysis of other people and their "flawed logic", and quite frankly; seeing your post history i thought you were above such things.

And please, do tell everyone which 3rd parties invest hugely in making immersive and solid Wii titles rather than spew out budget titles for quick dough. It is not absurd to claim that a console which is very, very easy to make money on will suffer a great deal of "earnings only" titles, at least not in my world.
And never once have I claimed that CoD style games are original, I was referring to new game series, and I do in fact never buy FPS games for consoles since I'm primarly a PC gamer.

I don't know what I've done to offend you enough to warrant these attacks, see the others who posted in these threads? I have no respect for people whose best argument is; "You're claims are absurd" or "That is unrealistic".
Seeing your profile and taste in games, I'd say you're a lot more narrow minded than me, so get off the horse and stop being so personal about things.
Judging by your claims and your post, I'm the only thing you hate more than anything non-Nintendo, and I feel sorry for you for it.

PS:@ Everyone; motion sensing is no sensation, functional modules implemented among other things in the use of CG and motion capture have been around since the 80's and many sports have simulators running on motion sensing software the likes of which have not been seen by the average joe.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Mummel, Have you seen the light on Wii fit as well, have you understood my prediction?

Do I think it will pass 7 million? Well, yes. Do I think it will ever come close to 70 million; hell no! I mostly don't understand anything you say to be honest, and I'm far from the only one...


First, the Balance Wii Board, the peripheral that's included with Wii Fit. The magazine noted that Wii Fit has been quite the success story for Nintendo so far. To this, Miyamoto responded that if the game sees success overseas as well, Nintendo may end up releasing separate titles that make use of the peripheral.

 

http://wii.ign.com/articles/848/848543p1.html

 

Think of it mummel, a whole line of games that use the balance board, Fitness games, sports games, adventure games, shooters


 Many attempts at similar things have been made in arcades among other things, and never really caught on, I can't see it magically becoming the most popular item in the world. It has potential, but not unlimited potential.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.