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Forums - Sales Discussion - My SMG prediction is looking grim...

While I found your prediction of 7mil for smg to be...silly I must admit I admire the fact that you didn't just delete it from your siggy and pretend you never posted it. If this forum had a karma system I'd proably give you some...



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Mummelmann said:

It seems I have grossly underestimated the legs of SMG, hat's off and congrats on a new hit Mario game! It will reach more than 7 million lt, perhaps closer to 10.

Anyone else wanna fess up while we're at it?


I knocked a kid off his bike once, and drove off without calling for an ambulance.

Major kudos to Mummelmann for admitting when a prediction went bad; there's no shame in being wrong, only denying it afterwards. (Dodece, I'm looking at you.) I do disagree vehemently with your gaming philosophy, however (ie gaming should cater to a niche audience and avoid the mainstream).



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

Krim said:
While I found your prediction of 7mil for smg to be...silly I must admit I admire the fact that you didn't just delete it from your siggy and pretend you never posted it. If this forum had a karma system I'd proably give you some...

 Aggreed. Thanks for sticking by your word.



There is no such thing as a console war. This is the first step to game design.

RolStoppable said:

When ioi changed the look of the profiles on this site, the data in the "About me" section got lost in my profile and I don't remember the exact numbers. Anyway:

Wii catching up to the 360 in the USA before 2007 ends failed by about 1.7m units. I was off by a lot.
360 selling at most another 2m units for the rest of the year failed by about 1.6m units. I was off by 80 %.

Is that why your avatar is sad now? 

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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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Mummelmann said:

I exist to keep things on ground level. Consider me the tethers below the gaming sky...

I know I won't hit with all (or even most), it is more based on the direction I'd hope the market would take; i.e force Nintendo to come up with something truly awesome and brand spanking new rather than toss around the same franchises for 20+ years and let it scrub. The way I see it, the Wii is a rehashed GC with motion controls and far from a revolution. I guess you could say that I miss the old days, when Ultima series was rockin' the PC's and SNES was modern day fare. I'm nostalgic, and I don't like where gamign is headed (way to mainstream). I can see gaming getting corrupted and wilt and rot away like the movie and music industries, and this is my greatest fear as a gamer.

There you have it... From an old fashioned and experienced gamer.


So, you're the Anti-johnlucas?  I guess we need one of those as much as we need the man himself.  Keep it up!  As long as you're OK with having that many spectacularly failed predictions ...

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

I think I predicted 8-10m, which still might be too little. Dunno, it's hard to tell. It could drop off pretty heavily in the next few months.




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Mummelmann said:

It seems I have grossly underestimated the legs of SMG, hat's off and congrats on a new hit Mario game! It will reach more than 7 million lt, perhaps closer to 10.

Anyone else wanna fess up while we're at it? 


"... the worst thing I ever done, I mixed up all this fake puke at home and then I went to this movie theatre, hid the puke in my jacket, climbed up to the balcony, and then, then I made a noise like this. (Acts like he is throwing up) Huagh. Huagh. Huagh. Huaaah! And, and then I dumped it over the side on all the people in the audience. Then, th-then then this was horrible, all the people started getting sick, and throwing up all over each other. I never felt so bad in my entire life."



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rocketpig said:
I think I predicted 8-10m, which still might be too little. Dunno, it's hard to tell. It could drop off pretty heavily in the next few months.

But it won't.  It's one of those games that will sell with new Wiis throughout the lifetime of the Wii.  The better the Wii sells, the better SMG might sell.  Especially in the US.  It wouldn't be unreasonable to make the case that SMG could sell 5 million in the US this year.

It's tracking above New Super Mario Brothers, after all, and NSMB is about to break 13 million.  And no signs of stopping anytime soon.