Quantcast
Locked: My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Forums - Sales Discussion - My SMG prediction is looking grim...

Mummelmann said:
--OkeyDokey-- said:
i didn't realise those predictions in your sig were serious...

I exist to keep things on ground level. Consider me the tethers below the gaming sky...

I know I won't hit with all (or even most), it is more based on the direction I'd hope the market would take; i.e force Nintendo to come up with something truly awesome and brand spanking new rather than toss around the same franchises for 20+ years and let it scrub. The way I see it, the Wii is a rehashed GC with motion controls and far from a revolution. I guess you could say that I miss the old days, when Ultima series was rockin' the PC's and SNES was modern day fare. I'm nostalgic, and I don't like where gamign is headed (way to mainstream). I can see gaming getting corrupted and wilt and rot away like the movie and music industries, and this is my greatest fear as a gamer.

There you have it... From an old fashioned and experienced gamer.


 I miss the old days too, but apparently we miss different things from the old days. To me, the Wii is a good console. Not great, but hardly what I would call going in the wrong direction. I want old school type innovation to return. I want more RTS, TBS, etc. and I want new game types rather than the same over and over. I enjoy amazing graphics as much as anybody, but if you told me 10 or 15 years ago that the games I would be playing in the future would have less variety than the games of that era, I would have been pretty depressed.

That said, cheers on admitting your prediction is looking unlikely. I give you +2 respect points and promise to try to see your point of view in your posts if I get irritated at them. Unforutnately, I'm too new to have any real predictions (I'm still too scared), but I'm sure in the next few months you'll see some mea culpas out of me as well.



Around the Network

While I found your prediction of 7mil for smg to be...silly I must admit I admire the fact that you didn't just delete it from your siggy and pretend you never posted it. If this forum had a karma system I'd proably give you some...



Wii Code: 7588-3685-3257-4150

Brawl Code: 0301-9768-7224

You know the drill if you add me pm your codes.

Mummelmann said:

It seems I have grossly underestimated the legs of SMG, hat's off and congrats on a new hit Mario game! It will reach more than 7 million lt, perhaps closer to 10.

Anyone else wanna fess up while we're at it?


I knocked a kid off his bike once, and drove off without calling for an ambulance.

Major kudos to Mummelmann for admitting when a prediction went bad; there's no shame in being wrong, only denying it afterwards. (Dodece, I'm looking at you.) I do disagree vehemently with your gaming philosophy, however (ie gaming should cater to a niche audience and avoid the mainstream).



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

Krim said:
While I found your prediction of 7mil for smg to be...silly I must admit I admire the fact that you didn't just delete it from your siggy and pretend you never posted it. If this forum had a karma system I'd proably give you some...

 Aggreed. Thanks for sticking by your word.



There is no such thing as a console war. This is the first step to game design.

Around the Network

Talking about failed predictions:

You probably remember my previous signature predictions about the Wii catching up to the 360 in the USA before 2007 ends and the 360 selling at most another 2m units in the USA for the rest of the year. I moved the predictions into my profile a couple of months ago in favor of my current signature predictions.

When ioi changed the look of the profiles on this site, the data in the "About me" section got lost in my profile and I don't remember the exact numbers. Anyway:

Wii catching up to the 360 in the USA before 2007 ends failed by about 1.7m units. I was off by a lot.
360 selling at most another 2m units for the rest of the year failed by about 1.6m units. I was off by 80 %. 



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:

When ioi changed the look of the profiles on this site, the data in the "About me" section got lost in my profile and I don't remember the exact numbers. Anyway:

Wii catching up to the 360 in the USA before 2007 ends failed by about 1.7m units. I was off by a lot.
360 selling at most another 2m units for the rest of the year failed by about 1.6m units. I was off by 80 %.

Is that why your avatar is sad now? 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Mummelmann said:

I exist to keep things on ground level. Consider me the tethers below the gaming sky...

I know I won't hit with all (or even most), it is more based on the direction I'd hope the market would take; i.e force Nintendo to come up with something truly awesome and brand spanking new rather than toss around the same franchises for 20+ years and let it scrub. The way I see it, the Wii is a rehashed GC with motion controls and far from a revolution. I guess you could say that I miss the old days, when Ultima series was rockin' the PC's and SNES was modern day fare. I'm nostalgic, and I don't like where gamign is headed (way to mainstream). I can see gaming getting corrupted and wilt and rot away like the movie and music industries, and this is my greatest fear as a gamer.

There you have it... From an old fashioned and experienced gamer.


So, you're the Anti-johnlucas?  I guess we need one of those as much as we need the man himself.  Keep it up!  As long as you're OK with having that many spectacularly failed predictions ...

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

I think I predicted 8-10m, which still might be too little. Dunno, it's hard to tell. It could drop off pretty heavily in the next few months.




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

Mummelmann said:

It seems I have grossly underestimated the legs of SMG, hat's off and congrats on a new hit Mario game! It will reach more than 7 million lt, perhaps closer to 10.

Anyone else wanna fess up while we're at it? 


"... the worst thing I ever done, I mixed up all this fake puke at home and then I went to this movie theatre, hid the puke in my jacket, climbed up to the balcony, and then, then I made a noise like this. (Acts like he is throwing up) Huagh. Huagh. Huagh. Huaaah! And, and then I dumped it over the side on all the people in the audience. Then, th-then then this was horrible, all the people started getting sick, and throwing up all over each other. I never felt so bad in my entire life."



I am a Gauntlet Adventurer.

I strive to improve my living conditions by hoarding gold, food, and sometimes keys and potions. I love adventure, fighting, and particularly winning - especially when there's a prize at stake. I occasionally get lost inside buildings and can't find the exit. I need food badly. What Video Game Character Are You?

Mega Man 9 Challenges: 74%

Waltz Tango Jitterbug Bust a move Headbanging
Bunny Hop Mr. Trigger Happy Double Trouble Mr. Perfect Invincible
Almost Invincible No Coffee Break Air Shoes Mega Diet Encore
Peacekeeper Conservationist Farewell To Arms Gamer's Day Daily Dose
Whomp Wiley! Truly Addicted! Truly Hardcore! Conqueror Vanquisher
Destroyer World Warrior Trusty Sidearm Pack Rat Valued Customer
Shop A Holic Last Man Standing Survivor Hard Rock Heavy Metal
Speed Metal Fantastic 9 Fully Unloaded Blue Bomber Eco Fighter
Marathon Fight Quick Draw G Quick Draw C Quick Draw S Quick Draw H
Quick Draw J Quick Draw P Quick Draw T Quick Draw M Quick Draw X