Soriku said:
mrstickball said: I don't think OP thought this out at all... The WiiU is failing to sell because its not a great piece of hardware. Tablet gaming has been around for 2-3 years now, so the supposed advantage of such a system isn't nearly as defining as motion control was when the Wii came out. Furthermore, the WiiU's horsepower is incredibly underwhelming, almost on the level of the original Wii. Comparatively, the Nextbox and PS4 are likely to launch at or around $400 (so a similar price), with a whole lot more horsepower and significantly better online features and integration. They will get full 3rd party support, which will energize people to buy their consoles. Where will they end up exactly? I'm not sure. But I'd say there is a 99% chance they both do notably better than the WiiU. I am thinking that it will be something around 80-90m for the Xbox, 60-75m for the PS4, and 40-45m for the WiiU, if its lucky. |
Why do you think the next Xbox will have such a notable gap over the PS4 when the PS3 is likely to outsell the 360? I also think you're undershotting the Wii U.
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Simple: Money.
Microsoft has a lot more of it than Sony does. That gives them a lot more leeway with engineering and developing the next console. Additionally, it allows them to take risks and gambles that Sony may not be able to. That isn't to say Sony will do poorly, or the PS4 will do poorly, but the brand names of both systems are about even now, worldwide. Sony lost a huge amount of marketshare, and Microsoft seemingly ate all of it up.
Do note that under the worst case scenario I laid out, the PS4 would only have a 5 million unit gap between it and the Nextbox, which isn't a very large margin.
As to why other reasons why the Nextbox will do well: Online & subscription based services. The undercurrent of this generation has been online and online features. Microsoft has executed so much better than Sony did, and both were lightyears ahead of Nintendo (which is essentially at competency level of Sony/MS of 3-4 years ago).
I think that Microsoft will lay a lot of cards on the table in regards to infrastructure and offerings that will outshine the PS4. One major area that I believe this will happen is the subscription-based model. The X360 was $99 with the 2-yr agreement, and as far as we can tell, it worked very well for them. Think about what happens if Microsoft does the same thing with the next Xbox from day-1, with (lets say) a $199 or $249 next-generation device.. That will provide them a huge, decided advantage.
As for the WiiU - I just don't see it getting any major support this generation. I think that in 2 years, the WiiU will be seen as the also-ran, with few developers publishing titles to the platform, because just like the Wii, the hardware is vastly underpowered when compared to the Nextbox/PS4 (which will probably see 90% of the 3rd party development this generation). I think that 40 million units is very respectable for how intept Nintendo has been in the past 5 years. Nintendo really should have launched the WiiU with either more power, or earlier when tablets were an emerging concept.