Once all 3 consoles release and their patterns set in, yes, I feel we can use prior generations to predict how things will go.

Seeing PS2, 360, DS, and 3DS for example, headstarts are extremely important and when backed by the proper brand, thus discounting Dreamcast as Sega's brand was lost in importance, can contribute to more sales for several years.

Brand being a factor as well, as it saved PS3 from failure while keeping 360s lead from being bigger. Brand presence has overall changed this gen, as Sony obviously lost some brand presence and MS gained it. Next gen we should see the next Xbox have more initial sales then 360 as it is certainly more known then it was in 2005. PS4 sales will be determined by price, and when it launches. We simply know too little now.

We have learned that the casual crowd is not a loyal one, hence poor WiiU sales so far.

We have learned that weaker hardware usually becomes the winner (DS, 3DS, PS1, PS2, Wii, etc) as they are more mass market positioned. 

Just a few things that can provide educated guesses for next gen. But as I said, we can get a full picture after a few months of all 3 next consoles on the market at the same time.

Now stop before I associate PS fans with burning down gaming museums.

EDIT: Also given 3DS initial sales, and subsequent price drop before Vita even launched, we can learn that WiiU can be in a very simialr position and can very well turn its fortunes around before its competition launches if the price is right and the right games come during the holidays

@Bold

That isn't using history, that's using present. I hope you understand the clear difference.

@the rest

Not worth addressing. Back up your claim that you can use PREVIOUS GENERATIONAL SALES to adequately predict the next generation.

Who knows for certain, but if that happens, Microsoft will have finished 3rd for 3 consecutive generations. That would be quite concerning for them.

Thats using present as a base so we can find patterns from the past that are relatable....

Not worth addressing lol. Nice counter argument. I did use previous generational sales, not by actual sales but the FACTORS that influenced it.

Dont know why your arguing at this point. My general point is that factors from the past can help determine the future when we have a adequate look at the present (when all 3 release). Your just telling me your mentality is in the Dark Ages.

Xbox beat Gamecube......why do some people still not know this?

If you have present information, you aren't making a prediction. You're stating a current trend, not a future one. Still have yet to explain to me how you can use a previous generation to predict the next with accuracy, just endless suppositions about particular aspects where trends are applied.

you're you're you're you're - I've corrected you on this already and you're still incapable of realizing your error. You even have the audacity to tell me my mentality is in the Dark Ages? LOL

If history repeats itself as you and others have parroted, then why is PS3 in last place, xbox360 in 2nd, and Wii in 1st. If history repeats itself from one generation to the next, it should be 1) PS3 and about 1/8th of the sales below 2/3 - 360/Wii.

Facts are history does NOT repeat itself in the console business. It's volatile. A fact you can't seem to fathom. Not that you'd know what facts are, anyway. 

Dark ages, lmfao.

History repeats itself in that factors repeat themselves. Price, launch time, brand, etc. All factors employed by different companies every generation, hence why each on ends up differently. You have to see which console is employing certain factors that have influenced previous generations.

Go ahead, tell me how many consoles Wii U will sell lifetime, as well as Orbis and Durango. Be sure to cite your sources for trends based upon "leaked" or "assumed" specs and price.

Geez wait till xbox and PS4 launch, or at least e3 so we know prices and release dates.

Its ludicrous to give an exact number, but a "ball-park" estimation is more likely once we know all the factors.

As for Wiiu, using history it can either end up as the Gamecube or end up like 3DS is now, depending on how they handle the coming months. History is fun!, its your friend :)

Prices for Orbis/Durango are 350-450, release dates are November 2013 - March 2014. Start backing up your claim.