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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter says the Wii U optimistically will sell around 40- 45 M units LTD.

sethnintendo said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
sethnintendo said:

If Wii U Fit flops then you might have a point.


Who said it was going to flop?


No one but if you are claiming Wii U has very little casual appeal then Wii Fit U sales would drop massively compared to Wii Fit and Wii Fit+.


Compared to the Wii it doesn't have the appeal. Nintendo was aiming at a crowd who already have Ipads, Iphones and keep themselves happy with those devices with cheaper games. Wii Fit and Wii U might do it, but they aren't here yet and its just going to be more purchases ontop of one another. The Wii U controller is the main controller, everything else is a secondary fit, just like the Wii Mote. I've played the WIi U plenty of times and the Wii mote is secondary. With core titles Nintendo is pandering to an audience that is majorly already satisfied by the PS3 and 360. The third parties have more faith in the PS/Xbox crowd supporting their games (outside of Japan). Ubisoft is keeping an open mind with Nintendo but do you really believe their offering on the Wii U will be the same offering as the next HD twins? They've been shouting at Microsoft and Sony forever to make new consoles and now its happening. All of the focus within the industy is moving towards Sony and Microsoft having another showdown and this time Nintendo will be behind them. Last gen it was PS2>GC> Xbox, this gen Wii> 360>  PS3. Without the casuals the shift is looking to take the direction of PS3?360> Wii U.



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brendude13 said:
I think all consoles will be less successful this generation. Still, 40-45 million is pretty pessimistic.


For an expected five year generation cycle? Nope. Sounds good to me. Everyones expecting Nintendo to dominate without the casuals and that just isnt going to happen.



pezus said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
I would say that's probably my low end (40m). This won't come near 100m though like Wii. So I'll say 40-80m, depending entirely on Nintendo games.


Did you factor in third party support? Nintendo was only the market leader because of casual appeal. Pachter said himself, the majority of the people who initially bought the Wii U judging by game sales were core Nintendo gamers. The rest own other consoles, which resulted in low support for games like Call of Duty.


I think I can see already where the 3rd party support is going, so this depends entirely on 1st party support. If they can make another Wii Sports-like game, 80m is possible.

 

Without the same casual crowd, I dont see 80 m happening at all.



On a thread a couple of days back I was predicting around 45m LTD. I will stand by that prediction :)



C0LINx said:
I'm done reading and listening to people talk about how its gonna sell now. I'm waiting for Nintendo's killer apps to come out, then I'll judge how well the console will do.

When is Nintendo's killer app going to arrive? and what will it be do you reckon?



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S.T.A.G.E. said:
pezus said:
I would say that's probably my low end (40m). This won't come near 100m though like Wii. So I'll say 40-80m, depending entirely on Nintendo games.


Did you factor in third party support? Nintendo was only the market leader because of casual appeal. Pachter said himself, the majority of the people who initially bought the Wii U judging by game sales were core Nintendo gamers. The rest own other consoles, which resulted in low support for games like Call of Duty.


I would agree that the majority of the sales were probably Nintendo fans, but not necessarily with the software sales.  The majority of the Wii U buyers more than likely got the deluxe version with Mario U along with another 3rd party game.  In my instance, I got batman AC along with the other two.  I"m assuming this was the case for other buyers as well or even no third party games at all considering Mario U is selling at almost the same pace as ninty land.  But, I do have friends who are nintendo fans waiting to buy the console.  One is waiting on dragonquest and the other is just waiting on justifying the purchase.  Perhaps Monster Hunter will put him over the edge.  Nintendo needs really good software right now and unfortunately ninty land didn't have near the affect as Wii Sports did.




S.T.A.G.E. said:
Mad55 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
PlaystaionGamer said:
How the hell can anyone know yet? The WiiU isn't even doing that bad. give it 2 years on the market then start to predict its future.
If the PS3 should have taught the Gamemedia anything its don't announce something selling poorly because you never know. (although 40-45mil is a huge and great amount)


Things could change  but the launch of a console is generally a good prediction point. People made predictions about the Xbox 360 and PS3 based on their launches. Predictions are generally adjusted after the first two years (or for those who spend the time from year to year). This is how it always goes.

If thats the case the Wiiu should sell better than the 360 and 0s3 did worldwide then right?


Its probable. We'll see how it goes because we can only go off of the Wii U launch. Without the casuals the Wii U's demand will most likely not be as much as Sony and Microsofts multimedia functions. I am eager to see what they've added to their respective consoles to increase community and the multimedia shift.

Well just have to see I think it will do better thn you think though.



between 40m and 60m imo
which is great for a 5 year cycle
PS4 will be just 3 years old when Nintendo reveals the real next gen



As always Pachtner is way off base.

I'd say 30m with 35m being optomistic. Once other systems come on the market I expect WiiU sales to resemble GC sales.



 

think-man said:
C0LINx said:
I'm done reading and listening to people talk about how its gonna sell now. I'm waiting for Nintendo's killer apps to come out, then I'll judge how well the console will do.

When is Nintendo's killer app going to arrive? and what will it be do you reckon?


apps, plural.  and yes, once they do come out, at least the big guns, 3d mario, U sports and Fit, ssbb, and Mario Kart.  Then we cast perdition or praise depending on how those do for console sales.  While I do agree 3rd party support will not be there like the other 2 competitors, I think it's safe to say they will have more than what the wii had.  I see more casuals jumping on board next Christmas due to word of mouth and install base widening.  It's really hard to say though.  I mean we don't know how the console market is going to play out period for all 3.  I could see it shrinking personally, but I'm could be completely wrong.