Is it possible that a price cut wouldn't haven any positive effect on the devices sales. I know that there is a accepted wisdom that says it will, but please hear me out before you post railing against me for even suggesting this. What I just realized this evening is that the portable will have more things going against it coming into this year then it had going against it last year. Firstly lets be honest about the fact that product if it had luster to start off with it has gotten pretty tarnished since its launch. Consumer interest in the product has probably waned, and a large section of software development studios have probably also lost interest. Since the sales have made it into a pretty unviable platform. To me that makes it a harder sell to consumers, and if the third party developer are equally disuaded. Then a appropriate decrease in software should be expected.
Which dovetails into my second point. We are expecting at least one new console next year, and given the markets slump two new consoles appear to be much more likely. To go along side a third new console that was launched late last year. Developers are going to find themselves presented with more attractive options then they have had in a long time. New Consoles bring with them hungry audiences who also don't have extensive back catalogs to pick from. Further more they need to feed their new beast. That means they have to buy more games, and that creates a situation where second or third string studios can get a bigger slice of the pie. Enough with the developers though. While the effect there is important.
It is nothing compared to the effect new consoles will have on the consumers. Namely the gamers that the Vita is trying to sell itself to. These machines are going to compete with the Vita for consumer dollars. How many gamers can honestly afford to buy a console, and games to go with it. Plus a very expensive portable, and games to go with it in the same year. The answer can't be that many, and if as many of us suspect the price of the Vita is really driving down the devices adoption. Then it seems absurd to think that a fifty or even a hundred dollar price cut will somehow offset the added cost of buying a new console for the home.
I know there are some earnest fans on these forums waiting to buy a Vita when the price comes down some, and frankly Sony only has itself to blame for those expectations in the first place. Given their aggressive price cuts with the PS3, but that is asside the point. Which is those fans are going to get stuck with a very easy choice. They can either buy the brand new top of the line console they have been waiting years for, or the portable that is probably going to be eighteen months old at that point. It isn't just that the new console will be more appealing, but it will be more taxing on the budget. Those fans may have to save to buy the new console, and that means they will have to give up on the portable for another year or more.
Which brings me to my final point. New consoles or not. The first half of this year alone is a console gamers wet dream wrapped up with a bow. Money that could be spent on a Vita purchase. Is also money that could be spent on the new Tomb Raider, Bioshock, God of War, Gears, Dead Space, Dead Island, and Grand Theft Auto. A good time to sell consumers on a new platform is when their primary platform doesn't have a lot of big new releases, and as it stands a lot of hardcore gamers are going to be spending hundreds of dollars on their most beloved franchises in a real short span of time.
Going full circle and returning to the beginning. To me at least it looks like the Vita is going from the frying pan, and straight into a blazing inferno. About the only good I see coming from a price cut is that it might make up some of the difference in the sales that are going to be lost. Thanks to decreasing interest, new consoles, and a terribly solid software release schedule on already established platforms. Can anyone explain to me how the accepted truth isn't anything, but wishful thinking. The more I think about it all. The less it makes sense. It made sense last year, but I don't think it makes sense in this year.
