I think this is what Nintendo assumed with the Wii U launch:
Nintendo Land is not Wii Sports, but it won't be far off -- So far it's pretty darn far off
Mario Is Our Safety Net -- Sorta. I think Nintendo really cut the legs off NSMBU by having NSMB2 on the 3DS just a few months before (which is a symptom of their poor 3DS launch and scrambling to try and get 3DS sales back on track). And both are symptomatic of a company that doesn't know how to sell hardware without relying on Mario anymore.
Call of Duty And Zombi U Will Bring Us Some Hardcore -- Nintendo I think overestimated the appeal of just having the same COD that's on other platforms (ditto for Batman + Assassin's Creed). Hardcore gamers are not impressed by that. Zombi U had some potential, but I think was too divisive of a game.
SiNG will Cash in on the singing/dance craze -- Uh ... nope. The casual crowd is not into the Wii U. And even if they have some passing interest, they're certainly not willing to pay $300-$350 for it.
I think overall they thought the third party ports would be enough to impress hardcore gamers (wow, Nintendo's got some of these core games!), and stuff like SiNG and Just Dance would bring in casuals, Nintendo Land would be at least the Wii Play of the launch window, and Mario would be their anchor.
I hope they have something huge for 1st half 2013 and weren't counting on Mario and Nintendo Land to carry the platform.