They won't. Scratch Rayman and Lego Cities from your list since this is Japan and those IP's are not popular there.
Wonderful 101, will be small, along the lines of Little King's Story or the previous Platinum Games.
Pikmin 3, hardly a system seller considering past entries.
Game & Wario, the previous games in this series were popular, this one I'll give you, but not big enough to produce a boost that lasts more than 2 weeks.
Wii Fit U, may or may not be a system seller, and unknown to what degree. If we take al ook at the 3DS, not all the previous break out hits for the DS translated into 3DS hits, the most notable being Brain Training.
Wouldn't call that being alright and then less so, when we don't have confirmation of all those games hitting Japan before Q3.
I think Game & Wario, NSMBU, and Nintendo Land are all the types of games that will sell decently over a long period of time instead of doing massive numbers at release and then falling out of the Top 20 two weeks later. Those three games will keep Wii U sales at a decent level through the Spring.
Lego City isn't a sure thing. It's a new IP, and therefore and unknown quanitity. We'll see it goes, but at least in the US it seems to be getting a lot of attention from the press and is putting up surprisingly decent pre-order numbers.
I think Wonderful 101 will sell better in Japan than anywhere else, as it's Platinum games and their products appeal to a Japanese audience first and foremost. That game stands a chance at doing fairly well for a system with a low install base. Again, a new IP, so like Lego City it is up to guessing at this point. I'm just probably more optimistic. I'm figuring in the fact that Nintendo has become the clear dominant leader in Japan right now and their brand image alone will probably do more to drive Wii U hardware/software than anything else.
As you say, it is true, home consoles take a backseat to handhelds in Japan nowadays. But Wii U will probably sell at least 10-11 million in Japan LTD, not a bad number. Also have to factor in that while home consoles have a lower install base than handhelds, home consoles do tend to sell more software.