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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pokemon X and Pokemon Y Prediction Lifetime Software Sales!

 

How much Software will Pokemon X/Y sell lifetime?

No more than 12mil (worst... 17 8.85%
 
12mil-14mil 22 11.46%
 
14mil-16mil 17 8.85%
 
16mil-18mil 38 19.79%
 
18mil-20mil 39 20.31%
 
20mil-22mil 27 14.06%
 
22mil-24mil 3 1.56%
 
24mil-25mil 3 1.56%
 
25mil+ 25 13.02%
 
Total:191
tbone51 on 09 January 2013
Pineapple said:
tbone51 said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7. 


Mario Kart follows a completely different model. Going by the history of Pokemon sales, I find it very unlikely for B/W2 to sell so little in its second year on the market. I haven't seen nor heard of any main Pokemon game making such a huge drop in sales. Granted, I've hardly heard of a new Pokemon generation starting so soon after the end of the previous one.

Black & White 2 sold 6.1 million in 2012. If it sells 500k from October and out, that means it's going to sell nearly a million in 2013. For a comparison:

Black & White sold 8.5 in 2011 (which was its first year, barring Japan) and went on to sell 1 million the following year.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 6.7 million in 2010 (again, first year barring Japan) and went on to sell 875k in 2011.

Pokemon Platinum sold 4.4 million in 2009 (again, same) and went on to sell 631k in 2010.

The drop I proposed is perfectly in line with the history of Pokemon sales. It's happen with all the last 3 Pokemon games.



You've got it wrong bro lol, Your talking about third installments, this is a new pair into the gen like black/white, diamond/pearl, sapphire/ruby. Those are the ones that sell great (fantastic) cuz its all new. pokemon X an Y will get over 10mil alone this year!


If you read the conversation I'm quoting, you'll see both of the following. Firstly, Fox and I are speaking about Black & White 2. Secondly, I've myself stated "Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million [in 2013]".



*Facepalm* Srry lol my bad, i'll next time double check. I think it'll be 9mil min and 11mil max this year. This game really seems hyped!



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KHlover on 09 January 2013
NintendoPie said:
007BondAgent said:
40million

Hell

80million, everyone who owns a 3ds will own this game, i'm predicting 1998 pokemon levels of hype here, even more considering that sold only 30m

Seems reasonable that even people without a 3DS will want to buy this game...

40m X and 40m Y, seems legit xD



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F0X on 09 January 2013
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
F0X said:
Pineapple said:
MDMAlliance said:
The only reason I put 25m+ is because of how different this one is, and the hype level that is resulting can result in some better-than-average results. The graphics have a huge upgrade from the usual, and there are a lot of changes that seem to be things a lot of people like. There seem to be people who haven't played pokemon in a while who seem interested in this one, so it isn't entirely impossible for this one to have better legs than most of the others.

You're correct that there's a lot of potential here. If there's ever a title that has the potential to sell over 30 million, it's this one. If you look at all the people who have ever bought a Pokemon game, it's probably passed 50 million by now. But, as the series hasn't evolved a ton, there's been a large drop-off. If you can get a large number of those drop-offs interested, you could very well end up selling 30 million. Personally I think it's unlikely, but it's definitely a possibility.

F0X said:

Around 16-17 mil. Should be big since it's a large step forward, but the recent glut of Pokemon releases may eat into sales a bit.

(I can't get quotes to work anymore, so I'm just copy/pasting your post

 

It's not strctly speaking true that there's been an increase in mainline Pokemon releases, though.  Look at it as a timeline, and it's rather evident.

1996: Blue/Red
97:  Nothing
98: Yellow
99: Gold/Silver
00:  Crystal
01:  Nothing
02:  Ruby/Sapphire
03: Nothing
04: Fire Red/Leaf Green, as well as Emerald (so 2 major Pokemon games in one year)
05: Nothing
06: Diamond/Pearl
07: Nothing
08: Platinum
09: Heart Gold/Soul Silver
10: Black/White
11: Nothing
12: Black/White 2
13: X and Y

Pokemon games have always been a close to annual thing. In the GB era, there were 4 games in 5 years. In the GBA era, we saw 3 games in 4 years. On the DS, we saw 5 games in 7 years.

It's abnormal for Pokemon to start a new generation the year following the end of the previous one. Last time that happened was the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2, when Gold/Silver followed the year after the release of Pokemon Yellow. Just by looking at the pattern, I'd have anticipated a Gen 3 remake instead on a new generation. However, I think Game Freak is making the right choice by using a new generation for the 3DS transition, and doing it quickly. Though I do think X/Y will be competing with B/W2 until after the holiday season is over.

I'm not sure how they'll be competing, really. Black & White 2 is going to be in the sub-30,000 a week levels by the time X/Y launches. It's likely it won't even do 500,000 post Y/X launch, really. Meanwhile, Y/X is going to be selling somewhere around 10 million. That's actually less of a competition than Mario Kart DS is to Mario Kart 7. 


Mario Kart follows a completely different model. Going by the history of Pokemon sales, I find it very unlikely for B/W2 to sell so little in its second year on the market. I haven't seen nor heard of any main Pokemon game making such a huge drop in sales. Granted, I've hardly heard of a new Pokemon generation starting so soon after the end of the previous one.

Black & White 2 sold 6.1 million in 2012. If it sells 500k from October and out, that means it's going to sell nearly a million in 2013. For a comparison:

Black & White sold 8.5 in 2011 (which was its first year, barring Japan) and went on to sell 1 million the following year.

Heart Gold/Soul Silver sold 6.7 million in 2010 (again, first year barring Japan) and went on to sell 875k in 2011.

Pokemon Platinum sold 4.4 million in 2009 (again, same) and went on to sell 631k in 2010.

The drop I proposed is perfectly in line with the history of Pokemon sales. It's happen with all the last 3 Pokemon games.


Then I misunderstood you in two ways, since you didn't say that the 500K was for between the X/Y launch and the end of 2013, and I was using a different measure of years of the market (one year on the market = one year directly after the international release), as opposed to comparing 2012/2013 sales. Which I don't find to be a good measure for comparing sales of each game because of the different time periods each game released in. I don't like comparing B/W's 2011 sales to B/W2's 2012 sales precisely because for B/W, many Japan sales are left out of the equation, and B/W was not available in all reagions for the majority of 2012.

So it seemed to me as if you were saying that B/W2 was only going to sell 500K more copies from October 2013 to October 2014. Which is preposterous.

If it seems like I'm being ridiculous, bear with me. Influenza messes with me a little.



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Zelhawks37 on 09 January 2013

17m



Estelle and Adol... best characters ever! XD