Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS3 will double WiiU in sales until E3 (PS3 leading 4.2:1)

How will this battle end (Dec 30th-Jun 7th, vgchartz)?

PS3 will more than double WiiU sales
PS3 will double WiiU sales
S3 will sell ~50% more than WiiU
PS3 and WiiU will sell the same (essentially)
WiiU will sell 50% more than PS3
WiiU will double PS3 sales
Other

PS3 sales will double WiiU sales between Dec 30th and Jun 8th* **

PS3 sold around 4.06m between Jan 1st and June 2nd last year.***
I expect PS3 to drop around 15% this year for the comparable timespan****. This means PS3 should sell ~3.45m this year.

Thus, I expect WiiU to sell ~1.73m (50% of PS3 sales) from Dec 30th to Jun 8th or close to 350k per month.

As a point of reference, Wii sold 2.1m last year during the same timespan. 

Even though the final numbers might not end up 100% correct, I still expect PS3 to double WiiU sales no matter the final totals.

All numbers are based on sales from VGChartz.com

 

 

*E3 is June 11th this year
**10% margin of error
***E3 was June 5th last year
****This year it's a week longer

 

Do you agree with me?

 

Week PS3 sales WiiU sales Sales Difference Ratio Cumulative Ratio Cumulative sales difference
1 336,875 126,201 210,674 2,67 2,67 210,674
2 169,412 49,332 120,080 3,43 2,88 330,754
3 139,073 37,714 101,359 3,69 3,03 432,113
4 140,019 33,813 106,206 4,14 3,18 538,319
5 150,397 36,956 113,441 4,07 3,29 651,760
6 150,767 36,555 114,212 4,12 3,39 765,972
7 164,263 39,031 125,232 4,21 3,48 891,204
8 159,008 36,302 122,706 4,38 3,56 1013,910
9 145,206 30,441 114,765 4,77 3,65 1128,675
10 129,469 29,820 99,649 4,34 3,69 1228,324
11 123,638 27,596 96,042 4,48 3,74 1324,366
12 116,859 58,378 58,481 2,00 3,55 1382,847
13 131,481 68,391 63,090 1,92 3,37 1445,937

 

Poll choice #3 for reference (since it doesn't show up completely if you've voted): PS3 and WiiU will sell a similar amount (within 20%)

Poll snapshot (March 12th 2013)

How will this battle end (Dec 30th-Jun 7th, vgchartz)?

PS3 will double WiiU sales 244 44.61%
 
PS3 will sell 50% more than WiiU 126 23.03%
 
PS3 and WiiU will sell a ... 87 15.90%
 
WiiU will sell 50% more than PS3 24 4.39%
 
WiiU will double PS3 sales 39 7.13%
 
Other (Please clarify in comments) 27 4.94%
 
Total: 547



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Not unless Lego, Pikmin, and that other game releasing in Q1-ish have anything to say for it.
The Wii U should be able to keep up with the PS3. I'm not going to say sell better because then it won't due to my "luck."

Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

I agree. The Wii U is currently selling about half the numbers of the ps3 and with the exclusive ps3 games coming out in the 1st half of this year, it should give the ps3 enough of a boost to keeps overall yearly sales double that of the Wii U. It all really depends on how well the Wii U keeps selling outside the holiday period - if it keeps selling at the steady rate it currently is then we will see huge Wii U sales and I would have to eat my words. But I doubt it.

man you are fast. I think thye will sell about the same.

Anyways, I think when Nintendo releases its games for 2013, it will warrant people picking up a new Wii U for the exclusives. Not sure we can say the same thing about PS3, (1) because I'm not sure what exclusives it has between now and E3, (2) its good holiday 2012 numbers will not continue (but I assume you can say the same about Wii U).

(not my best arguments above )



Nintendo Network ID: DaRevren

I love My Wii U, and the potential it brings to gaming.

NintendoPie said:
Not unless Lego, Pikmin, and that other game releasing in Q1-ish have anything to say for it.
The Wii U should be able to keep up with the PS3. I'm not going to say sell better because then it won't due to my "luck."


Pikmin isn't coming Q1 anymore.

Sorry to single your post out for this, I've just seen a lot of people saying it.  Seems we skipped posting the news article on it or something.

Source.

 

And @ the OP... maybe.  It's certainly got a good chance, PS3 has a fairly nice Q1 lineup and Wii-U's is a bit more lacking, with some wildcards.  Whether it'll sell 2x is debatable.



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I'm with you on this one.

I don't see any real strong Wii U release until Pikmin, which may even arrive after E3. Whereas the PS3 is selling pretty strong now and a has a very strong Q1+Q2 lineup. Theres also the chance we'll see the 12Gb system go on retail in the US for $149-$159, which again will well the ps3 achieve this feat.

Edit: Wii Fit U doesn't have a release date but I believe it'll come around spring. I doubt this will do big number for the wii U but the potential is there.



I wouldn't be surprised to see the PS3 outsell the Wii U for the first half of the year, but I doubt it'll sell double. I especially doubt that Wii U won't even sell 2 million hardware units by June 7th.

Whatever the case from now till June, here it is in writing for you: Wii U will be the best-selling home console of 2013.

It's not out of the question so I think is possible, unless the Q1 Wii U games moves hardware. 



Nintendo and PC gamer

DaRev said:

man you are fast. I think thye will sell about the same.

Anyways, I think when Nintendo releases its games for 2013, it will warrant people picking up a new Wii U for the exclusives. Not sure we can say the same thing about PS3, (1) because I'm not sure what exclusives it has between now and E3, (2) its good holiday 2012 numbers will not continue (but I assume you can say the same about Wii U).

(not my best arguments above )

Before E3 this year?

Sly

God of War

The Last of Us

I'm sure there's more



In-Kat-We-Trust Brigade!

"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

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Um so in almost 6 months, you believe the Wii U will sell less than 1.8 million? :( I don't think so.

Nintendo should sell that amount within year end of their fiscal year, March 31st.

Region wise:

Japan: Minimum of 500k (New Year sales should propel the Wii U to 100k next week)

North America: Minimum of 750k

Europe: Minimum of 400k

Rest of the World: 250k

I think maybe you are a bit biased :p